Logistical logjam may ease while pandemic wears on

Polysilicon

Impacts the pandemic has on logistics persists, disrupting deliveries across the supply chain.

Polysilicon manufacturers continue releasing new production capacities. However, as of April, actual production volume only sees limited growth, owing to line inspection plans of several manufacturers.

New production capacities come online at various paces. Imbalanced relationship between polysilicon supply and demand from the ingot segment can hardly improve.'

Prices for mono-grade polysilicon rise to RMB 243-248/kg. Prices for long-term orders accordingly increase, whilst trading prices of sporadic orders see bigger hikes, coming in at RMB 253-256/kg. Overall, prices stay on an upward trend, with the high-price range advancing further.

Some ingot manufacturers failed to acquire sufficient polysilicon for production, given ceaseless polysilicon price hikes.

In the meantime, pandemic outbreaks and regulations in China affect transportation efficiency, resulting in short material supplies for every sector. Against these backdrops, supply-demand disproportionate in the upstream exacerbates.
 

Wafer

Mono-Si wafers in all formats see low-price range gradually elevating. Presently, average prices sustain quite obstinately.

Despite the high-price environment, logistical bottlenecks and delivering difficulties pose challenges to dispatching and negotiating efficiency of the supply chain, as manufacturers see safty stock continually depleting .

After Longi raised pricings for mono-Si wafers on April 13, other manufacturers followed suit. Low price range continues rising, pushing up overall prices.

Mono-Si wafer prices have been on a gradual upward trip since earlier this year. Presently, the 182mm / 165um format has seen price quote as high as RMB 6.85/piece, meaning that current prices have exceeded the RMB 6.81/piece peak in October 2021. In the downstream, some manufacturers have given in to the record-high prices.

Spot prices here will be posted with market’s mainstream thickness, as wafer manufacturers offer price quotes with smaller and smaller thicknesses.
 

Cell

Pandemic eases in some region of China, but the country has not recovered significantly. Cell manufacturers still scramble to find logistics company, as they have few raw material inventories left and may see short supply in the second half of April for screen, mesh, and chemicals.

This week, cells in certain formats, especially M10, of which supply are short, see prices rising. Module makers keep fair utilization rates to secure supply, underpinning cell demand. This week, some of them start to accept RMB 1.155-1.165/W of prices for M10 cells.

Having fallen out of mainstream, M6 cells see sluggish demand. Prices stabilize at RMB 1.1-1.11/W. In overseas market, some new orders see prices gain to RMB 1.13/W. Future price trend will fluctuate with production costs.

Negotiations continue for G12 cell prices, which sustain at RMB 1.16/W for the time being.

Prices for multi-Si cells rise in accordance with higher production costs, standing at RMB 3.8-4.1/piece, and USD 0.54-0.56/piece in overseas markets.
 

Module

The pandemic wears on in China, hitting hard on logistics. The logistical bottleneck makes it difficult for end users to access modules and intensifies inverter shortage. Module makers still buy raw materials actively, in fear that supply will be disrupted in the future.

For now, some makers have seen glass and junction box shortages. Against these backdrops, BoM prices increase accordingly. EVA prices may rise in the second half of April.

In China, subject to high prices and the pandemic, only some utility-scale projects initiate in the second half of April. The Desert Project see no evident improvement either. As a result, price level stays pretty much the same as last week for utility-scale projects, with prices for large format glass-backsheet modules sustain at RMB 1.83-1.86/W. For now, module makers can no longer deliver at RMB 1.82-1.83 of previous prices. Overall, prices average at around RMB 1.85-1.86/W. In May, price quotes for utility-scale projects are expected to reach RMB 1.88-1.9/W.

Distributed projects in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai see some inertia this week due to logistical bottlenecks, whilst those in other regions still making some progress. Prices sit at RMB 1.9-1.93/W for distributed projects, averaging at around USD 1.9/W. Price differences between glass-glass module rated beyond 500 W and their glass-backsheet counterpart stay where they were last week, at RMB 0.02-0.04/W.

In May, prices are expected to advance marginally to RMB 1.87-1.88/W for utility-scale projects and sustain above RMB 1.9/W for distributed projects.

Overseas markets see steady price trend. In Europe, prices for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W stay at USD 0.27-0.275/W and come in at USD 0.28-0.29/W for residential projects.

In the Asia-Pacific, module prices marginally increase, sitting at USD 0.265-0.268/W for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W. Price quotes may reach USD 0.27-0.275/W. In Australia, module prices stabilize at USD 0.275-0.29/W.

Sales prices in the U.S. sit at USD 0.33-0.35/W (FOB), for there is not much delivery from Southeast Asia due to logistical bottlenecks. Local sales prices mildly increase to USD 0.5-0.55/W.
 

Ｎ-type cell and module

Prices see no evident changes as the market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. Prices for M6 HJT cells sit at around RMB 1.3-1.35/W. M10 and G12 TOPCon cells have not seen much trading by far, with prices coming in at RMB 1.2-1.25/W for the time being.

Prices for M6 HJT modules sit at RMB 2.05-2.1/W for now. In overseas markets, M6 HJT and M6 PERC modules see USD 0.05-0.06/W of price differences.

M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 1.92-2.03/W, with USD 0.015-0.025/W of price differences, as compared to M10 and G12 PERC modules in overseas markets.