Lithium carbonate prices keep falling while cell prices stabilize

Lithium price

Lithium price declines continued in June

Price declines for battery-grade lithium carbonate continued in June. As of June 30, spot prices came in at RMB 89,000-94,000/MT, averaging RMB 91,500/W at the month's end, a 13.7% month-on-month decrease. For Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate (SC6), CIF prices reached USD 950-1,100/MT, averaging USD 1,025/MT at the month's end, a 4.2% month-on-month decrease.

Severe oversupply sustained amid gloomy demand in June. On the supply side, imported and China-made production remained high. Port Hedland, Australia, exported 106,000 MT of lithium spodumene concentrate to China in May, a 101% month-on-month increase. Chile exported 18,000 MT of lithium carbonate to China, remaining at a high level. Brine pools in China maintained seasonal production increases, while lepidolite saw rising production volumes without environmental factors. On the demand side, both automotive and energy storage markets were lackluster. The automotive market saw growing demand thanks to policy incentives, yet the supply-demand dynamics stabilized. Mid-year stockpiling activities for the energy storage market ended in May. Production volumes of energy-storage cells are likely to see month-on-month declines.

Lithium prices kept dropping below break-even points. Accordingly, manufacturers might plan for production cuts or even shutdowns, reducing supply. However, given the persistent oversupply, lithium prices could see slight rebounds amid fluctuations but sustain at the low-price range.

Energy-storage cell price

LFP energy-storage cell prices in China held steady in June, with subtle decreases.

LFP energy-storage cell prices in June plunged below break-even points yet are unlikely to see further declines. As of June 30, prices for 280 Ah LFP energy-storage cells stayed at RMB 0.30-0.40/Wh, averaging RMB 0.35/Wh, on par with last month. Cell prices among Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers hover at average prices currently, with little price gaps. In June, most manufacturers mass-produced cells above 300Ah, especially 314Ah ones. Some cell makers offered price quotes for 314Ah cells RMB 0.01-0.02/Wh higher than 280Ah ones amid tight supply, while others quoted the two equally. Overall, prices for 314Ah LFP energy-storage cells sat at RMB 0.31-0.41/Wh, averaging RMB 0.36/Wh, a 2.7% month-on-month decrease, narrowing the price gap with 280Ah ones. In the future, the production cost of 314Ah cells will likely be below that of 280Ah ones amid mass production and expanding shipments.

Prices for 100 Ah LFP energy-storage cells continued falling amid sluggish shipments, reaching RMB 0.35-0.41/Wh, averaging RMB 0.38/Wh, a 3.8% month-on-month decrease.

With source-grid and C&I ESS transitioning to large-capacity cells, multiple energy storage tenders have announced demand for 314Ah energy-storage cell purchases, with some companies even highlighting the inclusion of 314Ah cells in lately launched products. In the second half of 2024, 314Ah LFP energy-storage cells will likely see increasing shipments.