Lithium prices retreat after rebound, while cell prices remain stable

Lithium price

Lithium prices exhibited fluctuations in November

Spot prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate stood at RMB 76,000-79,000/MT as of November 29. The average price was RMB 78,000/MT at the end of the month, up 6.2% MoM. CIF prices for Chinese lithium spodumene concentrate (SC6) came in at USD 790-820/MT, averaging USD 805/MT by month-ed, up 5.6% MoM.

Prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate rebounded at the beginning of November, surpassing RMB 80,000/MT before retreating after peaking at the end of the month. This price rebound was mainly driven by improved short-term supply-demand dynamics. On the demand side, trade-in programs and local subsidies bolstered the rising sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs). Year-end rushes for installations and grid connections, coupled with the high boom in non-China utility-scale storage projects, further expanded installation capacity. Both power and energy storage sectors saw strong demand, with major battery manufacturers maintaining solid production schedules, extending the peak season cycle. On the supply side, several Australian lithium mining companies, including Pilbara, Liontown Resources, and Mineral Resources, reduced future production guidance due to cost pressures, lending support to the current price levels.

Robust demand and supply constraints fueled the increase in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices in the first half of November. As the year-end approaches, expectations for inventory depletion and potential price hikes are weakening downstream purchases. On the other hand, concerns over subsidy reductions and higher tariffs outside China may accelerate some orders. However, the key procurement window for storage grid connections in China is nearing its conclusion. By late November, battery-grade lithium carbonate prices had started to decline. Whether strong domestic and export demand from China will persist remains uncertain, posing challenges for sustaining the rebound momentum of lithium prices through December.
 

Energy-storage cell price

Average prices for LFP cells in China stabilized after declines

Prices for LFP cells in China stabilized in November after earlier declines, with some Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers lowering prices. As of November 29, the after-tax price range for 280Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.25-0.34/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.30/Wh, down 1.7% MoM. The price range for 314Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.26-0.35/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.31/Wh, the same as last month. The after-tax price range for 100Ah LFP cells was RMB 0.31-0.37/Wh, with an average price of RMB 0.34/Wh, also unchanged from last month. With some manufacturers pricing near cost, there is little incentive for further reductions in the short term.

China's energy storage market is in a year-end rush for installations and grid connections. Smaller manufacturers lowered prices to clear stock and grab orders, while leading manufacturers avoided price cuts amid sufficient orders. This has created intense price competition among smaller players. In November, cell prices stabilized. As the grid connection rush ends in China, the market will enter its usual off-season, with weaker demand and limited room for further price cuts. December prices are unlikely to change much. This year, shipments of 300Ah+ large-capacity cells, especially the 314Ah model, have surged, with prices falling due to lower costs. Manufacturers will continue reducing costs through product and technology improvements.