Solar and storage 2025: US policy risks and the new global market landscape

The US PV market is undergoing major policy changes, with the most significant shift stemming from the anti-dumping and countervailing duties (AD/CVD) on PV modules and cells from Southeast Asia, which are reshaping the non-China PV supply chain. In December 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) revised anti-dumping duties for PV companies in Vietnam and Malaysia, impacting the overall supply landscape and several key suppliers.

AD preliminary ruling: Vietnam

• Jinko: increased from 56.4% to 71.74%

• Boviet: increased from 54.46% to 60.02%

• Trina, EliTe Solar, VSUN, and others: increased from 54.35% to 59.91%
   

AD preliminary ruling: Malaysia

• Jinko and the "All Others" rate: reduced from 17.84% to 6.43%.
   

US PV market: AD/CVD duties on four Southeast Asian countries are reshaping market competition

Although AD/CVD duties continue to fluctuate, PV module exports from the four Southeast Asian countries—Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia—to the U.S. have declined sharply. For PV cells, until large-scale domestic production begins, the U.S. will remain reliant on imports in the short term. However, due to the impact of tariffs, major cell supply sources are expected to shift to regions outside those four countries. Meanwhile, Malaysian suppliers, benefiting from lower tariffs, may become the second-largest short-term source of US cell imports after non-AD/CVD products.

Regarding U.S. domestic manufacturing, First Solar is expected to remain unaffected by trade disputes and will account for approximately 20% of the U.S. market. In terms of crystalline silicon modules, cell imports exceeded the 12.5 GW duty-free quota (DFQ) in 2024, indicating a significant increase in domestic module manufacturing capacity. However, only a few local cell manufacturers began production at the end of 2024. In 2025, overall domestic supply is expected to increase further as domestic cell production ramps up.


 

US PV market: stagnation risks and uncertainty surrounding IRA subsidies

Despite the US government's encouragement for domestic manufacturing, the current domestic production capacity of cells and modules is still insufficient to meet market demand. In the short term, the U.S. will continue to rely on imports, including from emerging manufacturing bases outside the four Southeast Asian countries, or even from lower-tariff regions such as Malaysia. Nonetheless, the uncertainty surrounding trade barriers, combined with the slow ramp-up of domestic manufacturing, is resulting in a slight shortfall in module supply, which could lead the US solar market into a phase of slowed demand growth.

For the US PV market to sustain its growth, it is crucial not only to monitor import policies but also to assess the continuity of subsidies under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). If IRA incentives are weakened, many planned utility-scale projects may be delayed or canceled. Moreover, the U.S. is developing policies related to Foreign Entities of Concern (FEOC), aiming to prevent Chinese-funded enterprises from receiving IRA subsidies for establishing manufacturing facilities in the U.S. This will significantly impact PV manufacturers planning to set up factories in the U.S., as well as investment decisions in PV systems.

US PV demand is estimated to reach approximately 38-42 GW in 2024 and projected to remain at 36-44 GW in 2025, with weaker growth momentum in the short term due to rising policy risks and a shifting competitive market landscape.
 

US energy storage market: steady growth momentum in the FoM segment

In contrast to the uncertainties in the PV market, the US energy storage market demonstrates a steadier growth trend. According to the global energy storage plan released at the COP29 conference, global energy storage capacity is targeted to reach 1500 GW by 2030, representing more than a sixfold increase from 2022. The U.S. remains one of the key markets driving global energy storage development.

Currently, the US energy storage market is still dominated by the front-of-the-meter (FoM) segment, which accounts for over 90% of installed capacity. In 2024, the five largest markets were California, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico, with California and Texas accounting for more than 65% of the nation’s total energy storage installations. California had an average storage duration of 4.0 hours, higher than the national average of 3.1 hours. In contrast, Texas had an average storage duration of approximately 1.7 hours, remaining largely unchanged from 2023. However, with a significant increase in the number of operational projects, Texas has become one of the fastest-growing markets in the country.


 

The development of the US energy storage market has been driven by various policies.

1. Federal subsidies: The IRA provides a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC), for which standalone energy storage systems (ESS) are eligible.

2. State-level support: The California Energy Commission (CEC) and the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) are actively promoting energy storage development.

3. Growing grid demand: With the increase of renewable energy penetration, energy storage has become a key technology for ensuring grid stability.

In 2025, uncertainties surrounding the US energy storage market are increasing because energy storage-related stimulus policies may be canceled or temporarily suspended after the Trump administration takes office. On the other hand, the continued escalation of tariffs could drive a surge in installations. InfoLink predicts that the US energy storage market will continue to grow, but market competition may become more segmented. In particular, the advancement of large-scale utility projects and long-duration energy storage technologies will be key areas of future development.
 

Emerging markets on the rise: global support for PV and energy storage

Despite a potential slowdown in growth in the US market, the European market is expected to maintain steady growth in PV and energy storage demand, driven by long-term energy strategies. Additionally, the global PV and energy storage market will experience significant support from emerging markets in 2025, including:

The Middle East and India are experiencing rapid growth. The annual growth rate of PV demand in these two regions is expected to exceed 30%-50% in 2025. In the energy storage sector, the Middle East market is projected to see an annual growth rate of over 300%, with storage installations potentially reaching 13 GWh this year. While India's energy storage market is still in its early stages, the number of tendered projects continues to rise, and the anticipated implementation of mandatory storage policies suggests an emerging long-term growth trend.

Southeast Asia and Africa are steadily developing. With increasing investment in green energy, PV and energy storage demand in these regions continues to rise.

The rise of India, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and other emerging markets is expected to offset the short-term impact of slowing US demand caused by policy uncertainties. These markets will continue to drive the global energy transition and ensure long-term growth in the PV and energy storage industries. Companies are advised to closely monitor policy changes, effectively optimize market strategies, and proactively enter growth markets in order to seize emerging business opportunities and maintain a competitive edge in the energy transition.