Multi-Si Supply Chain Prices to Plummet After 531

Market prices this week were not as vigorous as the prices in the SNEC last week. The entire multi-Si supply chain, which had already suffered from weak orders in Q2, even faced the harshest downturn in recent years. Due to constantly weak demands expected in Q3, the dumping situation of inventory is still ongoing in the market, resulting in constantly falling prices.
 

Poly

This week’s polysilicon turnover remained low; buyers and sellers were in a seesaw affair for prices.

Due to large-scale reductions in capacity utilization rates, multi-Si wafer use orders averaged less than RMB 100/kg. Also, with mono-Si manufacturers remaining high capacity utilization rates, mono-Si wafer use prices calmed at RMB 105 – 115/kg recently.

Polysilicon market received another influential news in addition to price downturn. GCL-Poly and Shanghai Electric formed a framework agreement for the 51% stock rights of Jiangsu Zhongneng Polysilicon. The partnership of GCL and Shanghai Electric not only alleviated the financial burden of GCL, but also helped strengthen GCL Group’s sales in China and operation overseas.
 

Wafer

Recently, mono-Si wafers had more steady demands than multi-Si wafers, resulting in consistent prices. Longi remained at RMB 4.25/piece in China, US$ 0.58/piece in the overseas, and it has not released updates for quotes so far. Some smaller mono-Si manufacturers have slightly lowered their prices, but most of the others still maintained at the RMB 4/piece threshold.

Multi-Si manufacturers turned conservative after the announcement of 531, reducing their capacity utilization rates. Currently, top-tier and second-tier Chinese multi-Si and crystal growth capacities only maintain at 30% to 50% of their capacity utilization rates. Taiwanese manufacturers with higher costs have almost all ceased capacities. Multi-Si wafers is now facing the harshest time since the wake of the PV industry.

Despite lowered capacity utilization rates, the current low multi-Si market has made it difficult to clear the previously stocked up multi-Si wafer inventory. It is rumored that there are now at least 500 million wafers stocked up in the market. With an inventory this high, prices are still in a downfall, averaging at RMB 2.5 – 2.7/piece. Lower prices have been seen for dumping. For prices outside China, prices lower than US$ 0.4/piece have been negotiated, but no significant amount of new orders have been made.
 

Cell

The 531 policy became the last straw of the weak demands for multi-Si cells, leading to a trend for dumping in the market. This week, multi-Si cells had a 7% downturn in price, the largest single-week decline since the 630 period in 2016. The price settled at RMB 1.1 – 1.15/W, US$ 0.16/W. The cells are having difficulty being sold in China, forcing manufacturers to turn to foreign markets like India and Europe.

The coming of 531 also meant the stop of the price increases of mono-Si and mono-Si PERC cells. However, previously the mono-Si market not only had orders from China but also from other countries, leading to different cell trends:

For the Chinese market, there is still a small amount of orders of conventional mono-Si and mono-Si PERC cells for the 630 installations, resulting in better demands than that of multi-Si products. Mono-Si cells decreased in price by 3 – 5%; the Chinese market saw prices of conventional cells at RMB 1.45 – 1.5/W, while mono-Si PERC cells fell to RMB 1.58 – 1.6/W.

For markets outside China, Taiwan is still high in demand for PERC cells, which averaged US$ 0.23/W or above. Due to sufficient orders, no significant downturn happened to the prices of Taiwan’s PERC cells shipped to Europe. For countries without tariffs, such as Japan and Korea, Chinese PERC manufacturers fell to US$ around 0.22/W.
 

Module

Recently, multi-Si modules have also suffered from an atmosphere for dumping. Due to low demands in China, module manufacturers are actively securing and exploring markets outside China. Also, the Indian market still has demand for multi-Si modules, making itself a leading market of low prices. The overall price trend for multi-Si modules remains downwards.

Mono-Si modules currently has support from the 630 installations. After the 630, only PERC and N-type modules will have orders from the Top Runner Program. By that time, conventional mono-Si prices will also become affected.

With the low season of Q3 just around the corner, second-tier manufacturers have started lowering their capacity utilization rates for modules. Manufacturers with fewer orders from countries outside China are expected to have capacities utilization rates lower than 50% in Q3, resulting in a harsh market atmosphere.