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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | August 02, 2018 |
Poly
This week, multi-Si wafer use became short-supplied, causing prices to slightly increase. In China, the average price came to RMB 86~93/kg. Last week’s average price once again became this week’s lowest price.
For mono-Si wafer use, although the polysilicon supply was slightly short due to maintenance, the demand for mono-Si wafer use polysilicon was able to maintain at a normal level because the price downturn of mono-Si products had not begun affecting terminal orders. This week, mono-Si wafer use maintained at the same price point due to low demand. Further, Longi can put pressure on mono-Si wafer use prices once lowering its poly prices.
This week, non-Chinese polysilicon were on a slight increase. Although the average price still remained at US$ 10/kg, the lowest price has shown signs of increase.
Wafer
This week, the average price of wafers maintained at the same levels, except there were changes to the highest and lowest prices. One of the factors affecting the change in price was that most mono-Si wafer makers could not keep up with Longi’s price adjustments, meaning Longi’s prices were the lowest. Several orders did not have price adjustments as in the past, but remained in the previous price points. As a result, the mono-Si segment saw a larger price difference than other ones in the market. However, in late August, other mono-Si makers will be forced to lower their prices or to have further capacity reductions.
For multi-Si wafers, despite pressure from the mono-Si, several manufacturers still increased their quotes considering the currently consistent supply and demand; the strike prices also remained at the same levels. Another decisive factor was the fluctuation of currency rates. Due to currency rates, the strike price in US dollar slightly decreased. As a result, with the changing currency rates, non-Chinese prices do not show signs of increase. At the same time, with the change in demand for mono-Si and multi-Si products, multi-Si wafers are likely to face another downtrend in late August.
Cell
Last week, mono-Si wafers plummeted in price, resulting in a downfall for mono-Si PERC cells, which came from RMB 1.15-1.3/W in last week to RMB 1.12-1.15/W this week. In addition, Chinese made cells are restricted by trade wars measures of US and Europe, resulting in less target export markets to choose from. This also led to an enlarged price gap between Chinese and Taiwanese made PERC cells. Chinese made PERC cells currently sell at US$ 0.15-0.16/W in non-Chinese markets, while Taiwanese made PERC cells average US$ 0.175-0.18.
The downfall of conventional mono-Si and mono-Si PERC cells has put pressure on multi-Si cells, which were getting ready for an increase. Further, India has initiated a 25% safeguard duty on China, Malaysia, and other developed countries, impacting the multi-Si cell market.
India was the largest non-Chinese market for multi-Si cells and modules. It also had the highest acceptance for cells, importing a large amount of low efficiency cells. Now that India has initiated the duty, low efficiency cells will have difficulties selling, leading to a weakening trend in multi-Si cells. China’s mainstream prices have decreased to RMB 1.04-1.05/W, and multi-Si cells are likely to be in a decline throughout August.
In addition to India itself, the largest beneficiaries of the Indian trade war are the third-place capacities except Malaysia. After the 25% duty, cells made in countries like Thailand, Vietnam all increased almost immediately, reaching US$ 0.143/W and above.
Module
The price adjustments for mono-Si wafers and India’s safeguard duty have led to unpromising demand trend in the future, and have caused module prices to keep falling.
Looking at recent module price trend, conventional multi-Si modules have come to RMB 2/W, and prices lower than that are also commonly seen. Conventional mono-Si modules are still unpopular in the market, and the average price continue to lean towards conventional multi-Si modules. Mono-Si PERC modules had another downfall in response to the price adjustments of wafers, constantly declining.
Prices in non-Chinese markets continued to decrease, as 275W conventional multi-Si module averaged US$ 0.26-0.275/W, and mono-Si PERC modules mostly fell at US$ 0.287-0.305/W.