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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | January 26, 2022 |
Polysilicon
The Lunar New Year looms. In the polysilicon sector, production output and utilization rates appeared rather stable. Few manufacturers have small-scale equipment maintenance plans. New production capacity continued coming online successively. Manufacturers adjusted prices faster, with price quotes for February coming in mostly at RMB 238-245/kg. Actual trading prices were slightly lower, but increases were still evident. Some manufacturers have been negotiating for orders for March, in order to ensure smooth commissioning of new ingot facilities and sufficient polysilicon inventory.
The world is estimated to have 55,000-57,000 MT of monthly polysilicon production output. The figure will increase monthly, but not significantly. Despite fair amount of inventory, polysilicon supply seems tight in face of growing production capacity and rising utilization rates in downstream sectors.
Wafer
After rounds of price hikes, leading mono-Si wafer manufacturer Zhonghuan announced new pricings on January 26. Based on levels as of January 13, prices for the 210mm/160um format were raised to RMB 8.55/piece, 182mm/160um to RMB 6.4/piece, and 166mm/160um to RMB 5.3/piece, translating to 3-7% of increases.
Other mono-Si wafer manufacturers have not followed suit, either keeping prices unchanged or raising them slightly for the time being. However, whether downstream sectors can accept the new pricings is still questionable, considering end user prices and IRR. Arrangements of staff, logistics, and the supply of goods prior to the Lunar New Year are no easy task. For now, downstream sectors may need more time to adjust.
Market disruptions will ease after the Lunar New Year holidays. A clearer outlook is worth anticipating.
Cell
China welcomes the Lunar New Year holidays next week, but wafer giants issued increased pricings, sending price quotes for M6, M10, and G12 cells up to RMB 1.09/W, RMB 1.12/W, and RMB 1.12/W respectively, RMB 0.01-0.02/W higher than last week’s level. Given this round of wafer price hikes, cell manufacturers are estimated to offer RMB 1.13-1.14/W of price quotes.
Despite rising price quotes, trading prices stabilized, sitting at RMB 1.07-1.08/W for M6 cells, RMB 1.08-1.11/W for M10 cells. G12 cells made from 160um-thick wafers saw prices rise to RMB 1.06-1.1/W. Still, price trend is stable, as procurement from the module sector slows right before the Lunar New Year.
In response to wafer price hikes, prices for multi-Si cells stepped upwardly to RMB 3.6-3.7/piece, USD 0.49-0.52/piece, and saw continual rising momentum in the future.
Module
As upstream prices mount and deliveries before the Lunar New Year close to an end, modules are delivered at previous prices this month. Chinese Tier-1 module makers mostly deliver 166mm glass-backsheet modules at RMB 1.8-1.85/W, and glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W at RMB 1.88-1.9/W.
Continual price hikes from mid and upstream sectors pressured module makers, few of which expect spot prices to climb by RMB 0.02-0.03/W, but demand after the holidays and end user acceptability must be put into consideration.
Prices stabilized in overseas markets. European and Indian demand increased for the first quarter. Prices for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W came in at USD 0.27-0.275/W for January by far. Orders are expected to be signed at slightly lower prices of USD 0.26-0.27/W in February and March.