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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | June 01, 2022 |
Polysilicon
Polysilicon prices will advance further in June, after ceaseless hikes in the first half of this year.
The market is signing orders actively in recent terms. Long-term orders between major manufacturers receive some discounts amid polysilicon shortage, but median price keeps going up. Sporadic orders see prices stay elevated. Despite both pandemic and inland transportation in China showing signs of easing, excess polysilicon demand has yet to be resolved. Pressures continue to build for polysilicon buyers.
Trading prices for mono-grade polysilicon rise to RMB 259-266/kg, whilst recycled polysilicon scrap is traded at RMB 263-268/kg. Polysilicon outside of China enjoys premiums.
Some polysilicon manufacturers plan to commission new or modified production capacities by the end of the second quarter, but additions to actual production volumes will not instantly emerge. New capacities need three to four months to come online, boosting production volumes in the third quarter. Polysilicon prices can hardly decline in the short term provided that demand in the downstream sustains.
Wafer
Two wafer super majors leave mono-Si wafer prices unchanged while revising prices in dollar terms, due to fluctuating exchange rates. For mono-Si wafers with same sizes and formats, leading manufacturers offer price quotes slightly higher than their Tier-2 peers. The gap is not widening for the time being. Overall, mono-Si wafer prices lose upward momentum and will stabilize in June. The market sees more wafer trading activities in recent terms.
The bottlenecked wafer sector still suffers from polysilicon shortage, failing to raise utilization rates, bring up new production capacity, and increase production output. As of this week, wafer manufacturers still see healthy inventory levels, and that of downstream buyers returns to normal as well. Yet, inventory risk exists.
Wafer prices are not likely to drop in the short term. Severe challenges welcome new ingot manufacturers, as obstinately high polysilicon prices put the ingot segment off operating at full capacity, taking tolls on production costs. Larger-format mono-Si wafers see production volume increase monthly. In the quest of lower production costs, wafer thickness declines faster than expected. 210mm wafers are expected to see thickness reduce to 155μm, and 182mm to 155-160μm, by the end of the second quarter.
Cell
M6 cell supply keeps shrinking as wafer and cell production lines undergo gradual size transitions. However, demand for M6 modules sustain, thanks to unfinished previous orders. As a result, prices for M6 cells rally on short supply, as in the case of G1. As M6 cells of major cell manufacturers are fully booked, some module makers offer to buy more at higher prices to secure supply.
Besides small formats, prices for mainstream formats also rebound. This week, trading prices for M6, M10, and G12 cells come in at RMB 1.13-1.16W, RMB 1.175-1.19/W, and RMB 1.16/W, respectively. Prices for multi-Si cells stabilize at RMB 4.2-4.5/piece, and USD 0.57-0.59/piece in overseas markets.In June, some cell manufacturers go through size transitions, whilst most of them run M10 production lines at full capacity. Manufacturers offer price quotes rationally despite price hikes.
Therefore, prices for M6 cells are expected to stabilize at current supply volume, with some upward movements. Limited downstream acceptance slows down M10 cell price hikes. The market is in heated discussions on when a turning point occurs.
Module
Prices stabilize this week. New orders are delivered at RMB 1.9-1.92/W for concentrated projects, and RMB 1.93-1.95/W for distributed projects, with RMB 0.02-0.04/W of differences between glass-glass modules rated beyond 500 W and their glass-backsheet counterparts. As for the low-price range, centralized and distributed projects see some previous orders being delivered at RMB 1.88-1.9/W and RMB 1.92-1.93/W, respectively.
The market is signing orders actively in recent terms. Long-term orders between major The market seals few orders for June, as end users remain reserved, whilst obstinately high prices affect outlook for the second half of this year. Inverter supply is short, with some markets overseas reporting late deliveries that delayed projects by one to three months. Accordingly, inverter prices step on an upward trend Whether that may affect module demand in the second half of the year is to be heeded.
The market is signing orders actively in recent terms. Long-term orders between major Prices stabilize for the time being in overseas markets. The Asia-Pacific region sees prices sitting at USD 0.26-0.27/W (FOB). In India, price quotes keep climbing in accordance with tariff rates. No order materialize has been materialized at higher prices, which cast uncertainties on project schedules. This week, prices are little changed.
Europe sees prices sustain at USD 0.27-.028/W for mono-Si modules rated beyond 500 W, coming in at USD 0.28-0.295/W on the spot market. Overall, module utilization rates stay pretty much where they were in May, subject mostly to high module prices. Presently, demand from overseas underpins module order volumes, while end users appear increasingly reserved in China. Module inventories continue piling up, with some module makers seeing inventory slightly higher than a healthy level. In the meantime, module makers seek to shift pressures to BOM and cell sectors to curb production costs.
N-type cell and module
Prices see no evident changes as the market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. Prices for M6 HJT cells sit at around RMB 1.3-1.45/W.
M10 and G12 TOPCon cells have not seen much trading by far, with prices coming in at RMB 1.25-1.27/W for the time being.
Module prices sustain this week, coming in at RMB 2.05-2.15/W for M6 HJT modules, and USD 0.28-0.33 in overseas markets.
M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 1.99-2.05/W, and USD 0.28-0.3/W in overseas markets.