| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | August 10, 2022 |
Polysilicon
The world sees real polysilicon supply reaching 72,000-73,000 MT this month. The increase is contributed by new production capacities coming online, despite Daqo and TBEA undergoing line inspections, Yongxiang facing power rationing in Leshan, and manufacturing accident taking a direct toll on East Hope’s production volume. Against this backdrop, InfoLink revises production volume forecast made earlier this month. Theoretically, striping out losses, monthly production volume may be close to the 80,000 MT threshold. But in reality, things remain in a dire situation. Polysilicon prices surge, as supply still falls short of demand from the ingot segment. As of August, polysilicon supply tightness persists and may ease by the fourth quarter of the year.
Prices keep mounting for mono-grade polysilicon. Manufacturers seal new orders at RMB 297-308/kg, albeit slight differences and varying order signing schedules. The upward price trend is sure to continue this month. Some orders other than long-term orders are signed at RMB 310/kg.
* Investigation of InfoLink covers polysilicon prices at which orders have been delivered from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday and have been signed recently. We track mainstream prices and provide feedback for the industry. Therefore, changes and future price trend will gradually emerge during periods of higher order volume. Prices for sporadic orders are to be heeded.
Wafer
As of this month, still subject to short polysilicon supply, the ingot segment fails to bring all new production capacity into operation, keeping utilization rates at 71-74%.
Limited polysilicon supply crimps mono-Si wafer production volume, which comes in at 26.9-27.8 GW this month. Gaps between different formats’ shares of production volume widen, with M10’s share rising faster markedly.
As of this week, acceptance for new mono-Si wafer prices seems relatively stable. After wafer tycoons raise prices, Tier-2 and Tier-3 wafer manufacturers follow suit. Overall, mono-Si wafer prices increase.
Wafer prices are not likely to drop in the short term, for upstream price trend remain rather domineering, as subject to limited supply. However, local authorities begin industrial power cuts to different extents in response to high temperatures in China, from which the cell sector will receive more direct impacts. Therefore, the industry now pays heed to whether power rationing will affect wafer demand.
Future price trend hinges on whether demand is slowed, and module makers clampdown price hikes in the upstream successfully.
Cell
Buyer-seller negotiations continue this week. Power rationing amid summer heat waves affects production output of some manufacturers. Still, prices sustain, sitting at RMB 1.28/W, RMB 1.29-1.31/W, and RMB 1.27-1.28/W for M6, M10, and G12 cells.
Presently, manufacturers across supply chain are in concern about future price declines, with some inventory in hand. Leading module makers keep production output in check despite lofty cell prices, while tier-2 module makers keep low utilization rates. However, power rationing affects actual cell production output. Given such shortage, cell prices are not likely to slip and will stay elevated next week.
Module
Prices stagnate amid lackluster demand in August, with serious project inertia as the market reports successive project delays this week.
For now, glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at RMB 1.93-2.05/W (inland transport costs excluded), and their glass-glass counterparts at RMB 1.95-2.08/W (inland transport costs excluded). New orders are few, sealed at RMB 1.95/W by utility-scale ground-mounted projects, and RMB 2/W by distributed projects.
In overseas markets, prices stay at last week’s level at USD 0.267-0.275/W (FOB) in the Asia-Pacific region, and USD 0.27-0.285/W in Australia. In the U.S., prices sustain at USD 0.34-0.38/W, and USD 0.55-0.58/W for locally made modules. In Europe, glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at USD 0.26-0.285/W, and USD 0.285-0.29/W on the spot market.
N-type cell and module
The market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. This week, prices pick up marginally. G12 HJT modules are expected to be available by the end of the third quarter. We will decide whether we should post the spot price of G12 HJT products in the fourth quarter of the year, considering mass production activities of all manufacturers.
Prices for M6 HJT cells come in at RMB 1.39-1.5/W due to rising production costs. M10 and G12 TOPCon cells have not seen much trading by far, mostly purchased for in-house capacities, at RMB 1.32-1.41/W for the time being.
Module prices temporarily sustain this week, coming in at RMB 2.07-2.3/W for M6 HJT modules, and USD 0.29-0.33/W in overseas markets.
M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 2.07-2.12/W for monofacial ones, RMB 2.1-2.17/W for bifacial ones, and around USD 0.28-0.31/W in overseas markets.