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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | August 31, 2022 |
*From September onwards, efficiency of M6, M10, and G12 cells will be adjusted to 22.9% and above.
Polysilicon
Sichuan and neighboring areas restored industrial power supply on August 27. PV manufacturers within the region resume production actively, boosting the increase of polysilicon production volume in September. Still, the loss resulting from power rationing in August is considerable.
For now, real polysilicon production volume is expected to rise in September, thanks to production resumed in Sichuan and new production capacities coming fully online. However, such slow increase serves merely as a stopgap for disproportionate supply-demand relationship in the upstream. In the short term, utilization rates of the ingot segment are still subject to raw material supply.
As of this Wednesday, prices for mono-grade polysilicon slightly pick up to RMB 302-306/kg. Trading prices for sporadic orders rise as polysilicon supply tightness persists. Major manufacturers start offering price quotes, of which increases are small. Polysilicon prices will plateau, whilst price quotes vary to greater extent. Buyers start to feel less urgent to purchase.
* Investigation of InfoLink covers polysilicon prices at which orders have been delivered from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday and have been signed recently. We track mainstream prices and provide feedback for the industry. Therefore, changes and future price trend will gradually emerge during periods of higher order volume. Prices for sporadic orders are to be heeded.
Wafer
Wafer production volume will rise in September, but the increase is small, as subject to power cuts in August. Short polysilicon supply will continue affecting ingot utilization rates. In China, as the pandemic re-emerges, local authorities step up restrictions, taking a toll on material supply and production schedule.
As of this Wednesday, mainstream prices for mono-Si wafers sustain, coming in at RMB 9.91/piece for 210mm mono-Si wafers with a thickness of 155μm, and RMB 7.52/piece for the 182mm-155μm format. Prices for M6 mono-Si wafers slip, with low-price level going down, as the product approaches end of life. To hedge market risk, some cell manufacturers seal orders at certain volumes and prices for M6 wafers.
Additionally, prices start to differentiate for wafers with varying quality on the market.
Vertically integrated companies are using thinner wafers for their in-house capacity. Thickness of 182mm p-type mono-Si wafers is trimmed from 155μm to 145-155μm, whilst that of n-type products see faster progress. By the end of this year, p-type mono-Si wafers are likely to reach a thickness of 150μm.
Cell
The cell sector sees steady supply and demand this week, with trading prices in China sustain at last week’s level.
The handful of G12 cell suppliers post lower production output due to power rationing. Doubled with the fact that G12 cells are cheaper than M10, demand for G12 increases, resulting in possible short supply.
Presently, M6, M10, and G12 cells are traded at RMB 1.28/W, RMB 1.29-1.31/W, and RMB 1.27-1.29/W. In overseas markets, prices fluctuate along with exchange rates, declining in tandem with the dollar for cells in all formats.
In the second half of September, mainstream cell prices will step on a downward trend as pressured by the module sector and faced with excess wafer supply.
Module
Module prices stagnate at the end of August. Few ground-mounted projects are initiated. Deliveries for orders of distributed projects continue. Trading price range widens for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W, which are delivered primarily at RMB 1.95-2/W this week. Specifically, delivering prices come in at RMB 1.95-1.97/W for ground-mounted projects, with low-price range reaching RMB 1.93/W, and at RMB 1.96-2/W for distributed projects. (Inland transport costs are excluded.)
In September, it is still unlikely for module prices to drop as supply chain prices stay elevated.
Prices fluctuate along with exchange rates in overseas markets. Module makers want to adjust prices, but end users seem unwilling to give in. Overall, prices sustain at last week’s level, with low-price range slightly losing ground.
Prices stay at last week’s level at USD 0.265-0.27/W (FOB) in the Asia-Pacific region, and USD 0.27-0.28/W in Australia. In the U.S., prices sustain at USD 0.34-0.38/W, and USD 0.55-0.58/W for locally made modules. In Europe, glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at USD 0.263-0.28/W, and slightly lower at USD 0.275-0.28/W on the spot market.
N-type cell and module
The market has yet to see many price quotes for n-type products. This week, prices remain at last week’s level. N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with few external sales. G12 HJT modules may be available by the end of the third quarter. We will decide whether we should post the spot price of G12 HJT products in the fourth quarter of the year, considering mass production activities of all manufacturers.
N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with not many external sales by far. Prices sustain at RMB 1.39-1.5/W for M6 HJT cells and sit at RMB 1.32-1.41/W for M10 and G12 TOPCon cells.
Module prices temporarily sustain this week, coming in at RMB 2.07-2.3/W for M6 HJT modules, and USD 0.29-0.33/W in overseas markets.
M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 2.07-2.12/W for monofacial ones, RMB 2.1-2.17/W for bifacial ones, and around USD 0.28-0.31/W in overseas markets.