| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | September 28, 2022 |
Polysilicon
The polysilicon sector keeps adding new production capacity for the fourth quarter. With larger quarterly increases, production capacity will peak in the fourth quarter. Polysilicon production volume rises from a month earlier in September, growing the most in the second half of the month. As the National Day holiday nears, major manufacturers in the upstream seal new orders to ensure continuous and steady production.
Prices for mono-grade polysilicon sustain at RMB 303-306/kg. Overall price trend appears steady ahead of the long holiday. Sporadic orders are signed at higher prices, but the mainstream price range gradually stabilizes. Polysilicon price hikes lose momentum. Buyers keep changing attitudes. For now, buying spree and stockpiling activities decrease, as buyers expect to see decent increases in production volume in October.
* Investigation of InfoLink covers polysilicon prices at which orders have been delivered from the previous Thursday to this Wednesday and have been signed recently. We track mainstream prices and provide feedback for the industry. Therefore, changes and future price trend will gradually emerge during periods of higher order volume. Prices for sporadic orders are to be heeded.
Wafer
Longi updated pricings for mono-Si wafers on the night of September 26. Compared with previous pricings of July 26, all pricings remain unchanged in RMB terms but step down by 2.2% in dollar terms amid significant exchange rate fluctuation.
As of this week, prices for a-grade mono-Si wafers sustain. However, 182mm products see the low-price range showing signs of decline. Inventory draws are not as strong as before.
Despite advert impacts of the earthquake and power rationing, wafer production volume still rises in September. The increase is more evident in the latter part of the month.
The supply tightness of 210mm wafers will persist in the short term. Major manufacturers keep prices at higher levels for 210mm wafers, whereas others seem prudent. Meanwhile, 182mm supply keeps increasing faster. As a result, the supply-demand relationships of wafers in the two mainstream formats are in opposite directions.
For non-a-grade 182mm wafers, prices keep falling on the spot market and drop faster in other trade channels. Meanwhile, prices for a-grade ones will stabilize temporarily. The differentiation between prices for a-grade and non-a-grade 182mm wafers will intensify in October.
Cell
As leading cell manufacturers expand business scope to module production, the cell sector becomes more self-sufficient, affecting its external sales volume. Meanwhile, module makers keep higher utilization rates. This week, cell manufacturers update price quotes, raising prices significantly to RMB 1.31-1.32/W for M6, RMB 1.33-1.34/W for M10, and RMB 1.33-1.34/W for G12 cells.
Presently, at the end of a month, and before the National Day holiday, cell manufacturers are still delivering orders previously signed; new orders will be delivered in early October. Trading prices do not bounce as markedly as price quotes, coming in at RMB 1.31/W for M6, RMB 1.31-1.32/W for M10, and RMB 1.31/W for G12 cells. However, cell manufacturers, expecting further price hikes next week, are reluctant to deliver at the current price level. Manufacturers ship actively to overseas markets, as the RMB falls against the dollar, favoring export sales.
Presently, module makers purchase actively amid cell shortage. Delivering prices are expected to rise as high as price quotes during the National day holiday. Price trends of cells in all formats vary. M6 cells, with decreasing supply and demand, see a widening gap between the high-price range and low-price range. Prices for M10 advance, as growing demand intensifies already short supply. Prices for G12 cells increase on higher self-sufficiency of professional cell manufacturers.
Module
Glass-glass modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at RMB 1.98-2.01/W this week, with RMB 0.01-0.03/W of price difference with glass-backsheet ones. Cell price hikes erode profits generated by previous BOM price decline. Some module makers are poised to raise prices. The low-price range already picked up marginally.
In China, ground-mounted projects initiating in the fourth quarter underpin demand. Against this backdrop, module makers raise prices from the original price quotes of RMB 1.9-1.93/W, approaching levels of the third quarter at RMB 1.93-1.95/W.
In overseas markets, prices keep stepping down slowly, reaching USD 0.25-0.27/W. This is largely attributed to waning demand and exchange rate fluctuation. Projects for the fourth quarter mull on delays.
Prices (FOB) sit at USD 0.25-0.28/W in Europe, USD 0.25-0.263/W in the Asia Pacific region, and USD 0.25-0.265/W in Brazil. Local module prices in India translate to around USD 0.342-0.366/W (FOB). In the U.S., prices come in at USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) for locally made modules.
N-type cell and module
This week, prices remain at last week’s level. Most manufacturers offer price quotes for n-type products. We will decide whether to post the spot price of G12 HJT products or not by the fourth quarter of the year, considering mass production activities of all manufacturers.
N-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, with few external sales. Prices sustain at RMB 1.45-1.6/W for M6 HJT cells and sit at RMB 1.4-1.45/W for M10 and G12 TOPCon cells.
Module prices temporarily sustain this week, coming in at RMB 2.07-2.2/W for M6 HJT modules, and USD 0.285-0.33/W in overseas markets.
M10 and G12 TOPCon module prices stay where they were last week, at RMB 2.07-2.12/W for monofacial ones, RMB 2.1-2.15/W for bifacial ones, and around USD 0.28-0.31/W in overseas markets.