Downstream sectors cautious amid upstream standoffs

*From December 2022 onwards, wafer prices will be posted based on the thickness of 150μm.

*From December 2022 onwards, InfoLink adds a new column of price quotes for n-type modules in RMB term. The price quotes posted only serve as a reference, for n-type modules available on the market are few. More statistics of price quotes will be taken into account in the future, once there is any. Price quotes in dollar term will be added next year.

*From January 2023 onwards, InfoLink will stop posting price quotes for M6 wafers, cells, and modules, as market share of M6 products dwindles.
 

Polysilicon

Buyer-seller negotiations have been in a deadlock in the upstream. As of this Wednesday, manufacturers are still delivering previous orders, while only few of them have sealed new orders. The market sentiment is peculiar, given intense negotiations and strong anticipation for prices to drop.  With their agendas in mind, both buyers and sellers are extremely cautious about price quotes.

Waning end user demand slows down overall downstream demand. In the wafer sector, inventory piles up to an unhealthy level, whilst prices drop unexpectedly. Against these backdrops, polysilicon demand will gradually decrease in December, pushing up inventory levels of polysilicon manufacturers to varying extents.

*Note: At the height of negotiations among manufacturers, InfoLink considers overall price trend of the PV supply chain, providing a truthful presentation for the development of polysilicon prices.
 

Wafer

Prices keep falling rapidly for mono-Si wafers of all formats, with low-price ranges dipping further. Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers still see prices declining faster than leading manufacturers do. 

As of this Wednesday, the mainstream mono-Si wafer prices have been lower than official pricings of leading manufacturers. With prices being on a rapid downward trend, buyers are less likely to purchase. The cell sector steps up control on the level and turnover ratio of wafer inventory, in fear of the loss of value. As a result, wafer shipments are affected, and manufacturers are faced with elevating sales pressures. 

As wafer prices rapidly decline, manufacturers demand cheaper polysilicon and are more likely to trim down utilization rates of the ingot segment. Doubled with the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, demand during December and January may be affected. Upstream sectors may remain in standoffs.
 

Cell

To date, there is no significant increase in the supply of either large-format or high-efficiency cells. Trading prices drop faster this week, given Tongwei’s increased amount of cells available on the market and pressures from decreasing module prices. Meantime, thanks to wafer price declines, cell manufacturers see profits recover, thus having stronger price acceptance for modules.  

This week, M6, M10, and G12 cells are traded at RMB 1.31/W, RMB 1.31-1.34/W, and RMB 1.31-1.32/W, respectively. There is a difference of RMB 0.02-0.03/W between prices in China and overseas markets for M10 cells, and RMB 0.01-0.02/W for G12 ones.  For M6 cells, there is little wiggle room due to sluggish demand. 

Demand keeps shrinking in overseas markets. In China, utility-scale projects will reach their target inventory draw by mid-December, and distributed ones will stop taking deliveries by Christmas. Therefore, cell prices are expected to dip lower this month due to slower inventory draw of the module sector. As demand tumbles, cell prices will step on a faster downward trend. 
 

Module

The module sector sees more lackluster trading activities this week. In addition to the cold weather and the pandemic, end users suspend projects ahead of evident price declines across the supply chain. This year, installation schedules are vague. Developers initiate projects at leisure, pushing out deliveries to 2023, despite the installation deadline. The low-price range keeps moving lower.  Both China and overseas markets will see lower price quotes early next year. Price quotes of RMB 1.85-1.88/W and USD 0.22-0.225/W have been offered for the first quarter of 2023. Such a disorder will persist into next year. 

Average prices are little changed this week as trading volume is low, sitting at RMB 1.85-2.02/W for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W, and RMB 1.89-2.05/W for glass-glass ones. Overall, price range continues expanding in the fourth quarter. Module prices have reached lower than RMB 1.9/W this week and are poised to sink further below.

This week, overseas markets are still disordered, mainly because of sluggish demand in the fourth quarter and serious project inertia. The dollar falls against the yen. Module prices (FOB) fall marginally to USD 0.235-0.27/W in Europe, USD 0.24-0.25/W in the Asia Pacific region, and USD 0.235-0.25/W in Brazil. Local module prices in India translate to around USD 0.32-0.359/W (FOB). In the U.S., prices (DDP) come in at USD 0.41-0.44/W for Southeast Asian modules, and USD 0.5-0.58/W (DDP) for locally made modules.
 

N-type cell and module

Prices drop marginally for n-type cells along with wafer price declines. Sales of n-type cells are mainly purchased for in-house capacities, and only a few are external sales. Whether a new column for price quotes will be added depends on the mass production activities of all manufacturers.  

Prices come in at RMB 1.4-1.55/W for G12 HJT cells and RMB 1.35-1.4/W for M10 TOPCon cells. There are fewer M6 HJT cells on the market, as manufacturers have been modifying production lines of which. 

From December 2022 onwards, InfoLink adds a new column of price quotes for n-type modules in RMB term. The price quotes posted only serve as a reference, for n-type modules available on the market are few. More statistics of price quotes will be taken into account in the future, once there are any. Price quotes in dollar term will be included next year. 

Currently, module prices come in at RMB 2-2.2/W and USD 0.27-0.295/W in overseas markets for M6 HJT modules; RMB 2.1-2.3/W for G12 HJT modules; RMB 2.03-2.08/W and USD 0.264-0.27/W in overseas markets for G12 TOPCon modules.

N-type and p-type modules will see a shrinking price gap next year. Meantime, PERC modules may see price differences with TOPCon and HJT modules narrow to within USD 0.01/W and USD 0.02-0.04/W, respectively.