| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | December 14, 2022 |
Polysilicon
In the upstream, buyers and sellers are still in a standoff that shows no sign of resolve. Price negotiations drag on. Manufacturers finish delivering previous orders, with very few being left unfulfilled. It is difficult to seal new orders as buyers settle into a holding pattern. Sellers and buyers continue negotiations, as the two sides have yet to reach a consensus on the new trading prices as of this week.
As of this Wednesday, major manufacturers sealed a meager volume of orders, while taking small orders that buyers made to supplement production. Prices drop markedly. With their own agendas in mind, both buyers and sellers are extremely cautious about price quotes.
Polysilicon supply increases, but demand dwindles as that of end users slows. Doubled with the unhealthy inventory level and unexpected price declines, the ingot segment trim down utilization rates and pare back polysilicon purchases. As a result, polysilicon manufacturers will see inventory piling up unfavorably to varying extents, potentially affecting supply-demand relationship after the Lunar New Year holiday.
*Note: At the height of negotiations among manufacturers, InfoLink considers overall price trend of the PV supply chain, providing a truthful presentation for the development of polysilicon prices.
Wafer
Price war begins for mono-Si wafers. For M10 wafers, prices stepped on a faster downward trend last week. With Tier-1 manufacturers taking the lead, wafer prices drop on a daily basis. Manufacturers cut prices lower than each other aggressively, intensifying the competition.
Mainstream prices for cells in all formats have dropped lower than previous official pricings of leading manufacturers, showing no sign of stabilizing as of this Wednesday. This week, mainstream prices reached below RMB 6/piece for 182mm wafers with a thickness of 150μm and come in at RMB 8/piece for 210mm-159μm ones. For now, polysilicon price declines have yet to catch up with falling wafer prices. As a result, price negotiations will not be settled in the short term.
Wafer prices plunge, pressuring buyers in the downstream, who step up control of the level and turnover ratio of wafer inventory, in fear of the loss of value. As a result, wafer shipments are affected, and manufacturers are faced with elevating sales pressures.
Cell
Cell prices plunge by 6-8% this week, given chaotic wafer price trend and rapidly slowing inventory draws as module makers meet target purchase volumes of the year. Cell price quotes and trading prices drop every day. A downward price trend in the future is clear.
To date, trading prices come in at RMB 1.2/W, RMB 1.22-1.25/W, and RMB 1.22/W for M6, M10, and G12 cells. M6 cells see low trading activities in China and rapidly waning demand in overseas markets. InfoLink may stop posting spot price for M6 cells from January 1, 2023 onwards.
Module makers have a bigger say now. Additionally, wafer price plunge deepens the anticipation for cell prices to drop. Such anticipation sends cell prices on a faster downward trip that will last until the year’s end.
Module
Prices across the supply chain are on an evident downward trend. Upstream and downstream sectors are in a rout. End users, in and out of China, appear even more cautious. Recently, the low-price range keeps dipping, as module makers deplete inventory ahead of sluggish demand and prepare for the year-end settlement. Both China and overseas markets will see lower price quotes early next year. Price quotes of RMB 1.84-1.88/W and USD 0.22-0.225/W have been offered for the first quarter of 2023. Such a disorder will persist into next year.
Module prices are mixed this week, whilst trading volume decreases. Most module makers have finished delivering orders that were signed previously at higher prices while demand comes to an end as the year draws to its close. This week, module prices come in at RMB 1.84-2/W for glass-backsheet modules, and RMB 1.88-2.03/W for glass-glass ones. Overall, price range continues expanding in the fourth quarter. For orders to be delivered by the end of December, prices are poised to sink even lower.
Overseas markets remain chaotic. Module prices (FOB) fall marginally to USD 0.235-0.27/W in Europe, USD 0.24-0.25/W in the Asia Pacific region, and USD 0.235-0.25/W in Brazil. Local module prices in India translate to around USD 0.32-0.359/W (FOB). In the U.S., prices slip in line with price declines across the supply chain, coming in at USD 0.4-0.44/W (DDP) for Southeast Asian modules, and USD 0.5-0.58/W (DDP) for locally made modules.
N-type cell and module
Prices drop marginally for n-type cells due to wafer price declines, coming in at RMB 1.4-1.5/W for G12 HJT cells and RMB 1.23-1.8/W for M10 TOPCon cells. Some cell manufacturers sell n-type and p-type cells at the same price level. There are fewer M6 HJT cells on the market, as manufacturers have been modifying production lines of which.
Currently, module prices come in at RMB 2-2.2/W and USD 0.27-0.29/W in overseas markets for M6 HJT modules; RMB 2.1-2.3/W for G12 HJT modules; RMB 1.88-2.05/W and USD 0.264-0.27/W in overseas markets for M10 TOPCon modules.
N-type and p-type modules will see a shrinking price gap next year. Meantime, PERC modules may see price differences with TOPCon and HJT modules narrow to within USD 0.01/W and USD 0.02-0.04/W, respectively.