Wafer prices decline continuously on slack demand

*From January 2023 onwards, InfoLink will stop posting price quotes for M6 wafers, cells, and modules, as market share of M6 products dwindles.

Polysilicon

Polysilicon supply continues to increase steadily this month, but the upstream sector is facing shrinking demand. Moreover, some polysilicon manufacturers are lack of new orders after fulfilling the previous ones. An unusual inventory pileup is happening in the polysilicon segment now.

The competition in the upstream is heating up, while wafer prices are declining rapidly. Calculating with the degree of price decline of wafer and polysilicon, the current polysilicon price level is not likely to cover. Yet, manufacturers in the upstream are seeking to form new business collaboration amid the complex and rapidly changing market environment.

With different attitude between buyers and sellers, as well as different strategies among polysilicon manufacturers, some makers are more aggressive while some are in a wait-and-see mode. As a result, the price difference widens continuously. Manufacturers are struggling with inactive trading due to shrinking demand. Polysilicon started to pile up, putting inventory pressure on polysilicon makers, including the Tier-1 ones; such pressure is expected to last until the Lunar New Year holiday begins.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices are chaotic now; the decline continues this week. On Dec. 23, leading wafer makers published pricings, but the dramatic decrease in mainstream prices continues as of this Wednesday, showing no sign of stopping.

As demand from cell makers shrank faster, the chaotic price downward trend in the upstream continues. As of this Wednesday, the mainstream prices for 182mm/150μm wafers have fallen to RMB 4.95/piece; that for 210mm/150μm wafers also reached RMB 6.7/piece. At this point, the upstream supply is struggling with weakening demand. Even manufacturers have cut wafer production, such a shrinkage in demand is still shocking.

As the Lunar New Year looms and the resurgence of Covid-19 across China, the situation becomes more complex and troubling for the manufacturing sector to decide their production plan, holiday, and staff arrangement.
 

Cell

As module makers have met their procurement target this year, demand for cells dropped dramatically. Some module makers now purchased small volume on a daily basis, but in the cell segment, production is still running at full capacity. Consequently, cell prices decline more sharply, even exceeding the range of wafer price decline.

At present, cells were traded at RMB 0.93-0.95/W for M6; RMB 0.94-0.98/W for M10; and RMB 0.95-0.98/W for G12. There was not much trading activity for M6 cells in China now, while demand for M6 also shrank rapidly overseas. InfoLink will stop posting price quotes for M6 from January 2023 in response to market situation.

Looking ahead, what concern manufacturers the most is the strategy for production plan during the Lunar New Year holiday. As far as InfoLink has learned, module makers prefer to cut production, but they are still evaluating the order volume. On the cell side, price movement is subject to cell production plan and end user demand.
 

Module

Demand shrank dramatically this week, with manufacturers finishing deliveries in China and abroad. Module makers are also clearing inventory for the end of the year, with modules featuring non regular efficiency being sold at a price lower than RMB 1.7/W.

Price trends remain the same this week. Orders signed at a higher price have been delivered – RMB 1.82-1.98/W for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W and RMB 1.85-1.98/W for glass-glass modules. In overseas markets, prices have remained unchanged during the holiday.

The rapid price decrease in the supply chain affected new order signing for modules, which just began a new round of decline. Some end users have renegotiated orders, with prices for Q1 in China and abroad declining continuously, sitting at RMB 1.7-1.88/W, USD 0.22-0.23/W. In general, manufacturers are pessimistic about module prices for January and February, which are expected to decline markedly.

Module makers are uncertain about their production plan due to slack demand; some plan to cease production during the New Year and Lunar New Year holidays. Tier-1 vertically integrated companies may cut utilization rates to 70%, while Tier-2 and 3 makers may lower that to 50%.
 

N-type cell and module

N-type cell prices slightly declined due to falling wafer prices. The dip in PERC cells also hit n-type cell pricing. For now, there’s no fixed prices for G12 HJT cells, while some M10 TOPCon cell makers opt for selling p-type and n-type cells at the same price. However, prices have yet to settle due to chaotic PERC cell prices.

Regarding modules, prices for HJT modules featuring M6 format now sit at USD 0.265-0.29/W, while that for HJT modules featuring G12 format stay unchanged at RMB 2.05-2.25/W. Prices for TOPCon modules featuring M10 format slightly declined by RMB 0.02-0.03, sitting at RMB 1.96-2.03/W in China and USD 0.26-0.27/W in overseas markets.