Module demand to pick up as prices stabilize

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices stay on a week-on-week decline, coming in at RMB 200-220/kg. Backlogs and deliveries of high-priced polysilicon decrease. Meantime, the low-price range approaches RMB 190/kg as the wafer sector pressures on Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers. The gap widens between prices of leading manufacturers and their Tier-2, Tier-3 peers.

Polysilicon inventory is depleted at a slower pace.  Given the existing backlogs and sales pressure, more and more polysilicon manufacturers relent, leaving wiggle room for price negotiations. Overall, the sector will gradually return to a rational and standard trading pattern.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices are mixed recently. The two wafer supermajors hold disagreeing pricing strategies. Some of the rest manufacturers followed suit while some didn’t.  Traders with inventory on hand adjust prices more flexibly in active attempts to make a sale. 

Delivery and production are not as smooth as manufacturers expected after the Lunar New Year holiday. Doubled with leading manufacturers’ higher self-sufficient ratio of leading manufacturers, external sales volume decreases, and the number of wafers available on the spot market increases slowly. Meanwhile, the cell sector operates at full capacity, resulting in growing wafer demand. A short-term supply-demand imbalance is in the making. The fallout of the temporary supply-demand imbalance is emerging. Mono-Si wafer inventory is not likely to build up in the short term.

As of this Wednesday, mono-Si wafer supply on the spot market remains tight. Some wafer manufacturers dedicated a larger portion of production capacity to OEM orders, affecting supply within sales channels. Given that, wafer prices may not return to previous levels shortly.
 

Cell

Cell manufacturers fail to shift cost pressures to downstream sectors due to module makers’ limited acceptance of price hikes. As a result, cell prices stay at last week’s level, even though wafer prices rise, and module prices stabilize.

Cell trading prices stay at RMB 1.07-1.09/W for M10 cells, and RMB 1.1/W for G12 ones this week. A price difference between the two remains. In overseas markets, prices in dollar terms rise due to exchange rate fluctuations, coming in at RMB 0.03-0.04/W higher than prices in China. 

Due to the scarcity of quartz sand, supply runs short for mono-Si wafers, especially high-quality ones. Faced with mono-Si wafer shortage and being not able to raise prices, cell manufacturers may have to cut production. 

For n-type cells, prices stay elevated, even advancing marginally on n-type wafer shortage, coming in at RMB 1.2-1.22/W for M10 TOPCon cells, with a premium of RMB 0.12-0.14/W against p-type cells. For G12 HJT cells, there isn’t a new price range, pricings remain at RMB 1.3-1.6/W, due to low order volume this week. N-type cell supply will increase further as more and more manufacturers have TOPCon production capacity for external sales. 
 

Module

Demand picks up. Given the unceasing fluctuation in wafer prices, module makers are poised to raise prices. This week, prices sustain at RMB 1.73-1.75/W for modules rated beyond 500 W, with the low-price range sitting at RMB 1.65-1.68/W. Meanwhile, the high-price range slips. A few orders are delivered at RMB 1.8-1.85/W.

In overseas markets, module prices stabilize at USD 0.2-0.225/W (FOB). Europe sees prices sustaining at USD 0.21-0.225/W as demand shows signs of recovering this month. In Australia, prices sit at USD 0.21-0.255/W in recent terms. In the Middle East and Africa, prices remain at USD 0.21-0.22/W this week. For modules locally made in India, prices slip to USD 0.29-0.32/W.

As for n-type modules, prices slip to RMB 1.93-2/W for G12 HJT modules, while climbing marginally to RMB 1.82-1.9/W on rising production costs for M10 TOPCon modules. In overseas markets, prices sustain at USD 0.26-0.27/W and USD 0.235-0.24/W for G12 HJT and TOPCon M10 modules, respectively. In China, some module makers adjust the premium of HJT modules against PERC modules. N-type module makers are under greater cost pressure, given wafer and cell shortages.