Module price gap widens on deepening polysilicon sales uncertainty

Polysilicon

Polysilicon production capacity stays on an upward trend in the second quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12-14% and an annual production capacity of nearly 1,500,000 MT.  The growth will be considerable in the fourth quarter, as manufacturers ramp up production expansions in the second half of the year.

New polysilicon production capacity continues increasing this month.  Doubled with inventory currently on the spot market, polysilicon will be increasingly difficult to sell, and the pressure of being stuck with stocks lurks. The ingot segment has been raising utilization rates since mid-January, gradually boosting demand for polysilicon to increase, for three consecutive months, especially in February and March. Overall, the ingot segment may keep utilization rates at nearly 90% in April. The room for growth is temporarily limited. For now, market movements suggest decreasing polysilicon purchases this month. 

Tier-1 manufacturers see more significant declines in granular polysilicon prices, which have dipped lower than RMB 200/kg. Meantime, other leading manufacturers see prices continue to dive. Prices for mono-grade polysilicon come in at RMB 198-205/kg, with more room for negotiation when sealing orders. However, due to concerns about future price declines and limited demand, most buyers place small, frequent orders or put in additional orders later on instead of buying in bulk. It is increasingly difficult for Tier-2 and Tier-3 polysilicon manufacturers to ship, forcing them to offer lower price quotes, widening the price gap between them and their Tier-1 peers. The sales environment of the polysilicon sector is undergoing fundamental changes and is full of uncertainties. 
 

Wafer

Monthly production capacity of mono-Si wafers will rise more evidently in April, potentially reaching 46-47 GW, an 11-13% month-on-month increase. There is still room for growth in May. Currently, the wafer sector is unlikely to experience a large-scale inventory pileup. However, 182mm wafers have lost momentum for further price hikes. 

On April 6, Zhonghuan revised its official pricings, lowering  prices for 210mm wafers with a thickness of 150μm by 2% from RMB 8.2/piece to RMB 8.05/piece. The price-performance ratio of 210mm mono-Si wafers already has improved significantly in March and will continue rising as supply gradually increases. A sustained improvement in the price-performance ratio of 210mm wafers may stimulate downstream and end user demand, benefiting the 210mm alignment. Still, future progress requires further observation.
 

Cell

As predicted last week, M10 cell prices are little changed this week, with mainstream trading prices coming in at RMB 1.07-1.09/W, and G12 cell trading prices rising to RMB 1.13-1.14/W due to short supply.

With G12 cells commanding higher prices, more and more cell manufacturers modify production lines to produce G12 cells. Meanwhile, the price difference put off some module makers, who cut G12 purchases, leading to a slight uptick in demand for M10 cells. 

Next week, G12 cell prices may slip in accordance with Zhonghuan’s price reduction for G12 wafers on April 6. Still, demand picks up this month, underpinning the cell sector. Against this backdrop, manufacturers will not lower prices for p-type cells, but for further declines in wafer prices.  

Following p-type cell price trend, n-type cell prices are little changed this week, sitting at RMB 1.2-1.22/W for M10 TOPCon cells.  For G12 HJT cells, most orders come from markets outside of China, with still low trading volume, and trading prices sitting at RMB 1.3-1.4/W. N-type cell supply will increase further as more and more manufacturers prepare TOPCon production capacity for external sales.
 

Module

Module makers expect a boost in demand worldwide in the second quarter. Therefore, they increase production plan mildly to 39-41 GW, with gradual increases in May and June, resulting in higher prices for BOM, such as glass, resin, and backsheets. This month, glass prices rise by RMB 1/m². Still, subject to the limited acceptance of module makers, many orders are still under negotiations. Future price trend hinges on negotiation outcomes. 

This week, prices come in at RMB 1.66-1.79/W for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W, and RMB 1.67-1.79/W for glass-glass ones. The low-price range sits at RMB 1.66-1.68/W. The minor increase in average module prices this week is mainly attributed to the upward trend in module prices for distributed generation projects. Tier-1 makers adjust prices by RMB 0.03-0.05/W, pushing up average prices marginally to RMB 1.73-1.75/W. For utility-scale projects, module prices are little changed, remaining at RMB 1.68-1.7/W.  

Recent tenders also show module price range widening. For tenders of larger projects, prices are poised to dip further, largely due to lower price quotes offered by mid-scale module makers. Competition among module makers is fierce, and prices continue to differentiate. Most orders of Tier-1 makers are booked, causing a rise in the recent module prices for distributed generation projects. Meantime, mid-scale module makers bid at lower and lower prices to vie for orders. End users’ apparent effort to keep prices in check and their low acceptance of price hikes stole cost pressure on small and mid-scale and non-integrated module makers. Future price trend hinges on negotiation outcomes.

In overseas markets, average module prices slip to USD 0.215-0.225/W (FOB). Europe saw demand recovering in March. However, due to a relatively high volume of modules stockpiled in the market, module price range declines to USD 0.21-0.22/W this month. In the U.S., prices rebound mildly for modules imported from Southeast Asia in the second quarter. Overall, prices will sustain at USD 0.4-0.45/W (DDP) throughout the year. As for U.S.-made modules, prices for the second quarter decline marginally to USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) due to fluctuations in demand for rooftop projects. In Australia, the Middle East and Africa, and Brazil, prices come in at USD 0.21-0.25/WUSD 0.21-0.22/W, and USD 0.195-0.226/W, respectively. In India, prices stabilize at USD 0.29-0.33/W for locally made modules and USD 0.215-0.22/W (tax excluded) for modules imported from China. 

N-type module prices are consistent. Module makers will still be under greater cost pressure, given wafer and cell shortages. The price difference can hardly narrow as expected. 

For G12 HJT modules, prices come in at RMB 1.9-.95/W, while holding at USD 0.26/W in non-China markets. In China, some module makers adjust the premium of HJT modules against PERC modules.        

M10 TOPCon modules see prices sustain at around RMB 1.7-1.84/W, and USD 0.23-0.235/W in overseas markets this week.