Growing wafer supply raises concerns of future price decline

Polysilicon

Polysilicon production capacity stays on an upward trend in the second quarter, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12-14% and an annual production capacity of nearly 1,500,000 MT. The growth will be considerable in the fourth quarter, as manufacturers ramp up production expansions in the second half of the year.

Polysilicon prices continue to fall gradually. Prices for mono-grade polysilicon, drop to RMB 194-200/kg, averaging RMB 197/kg. The overall price range is even lower when factoring in polysilicon of lower quality, such as popcorn polysilicon, multi-grade polysilicon, and dropped granules. There will be temporary price discrepancies due to varying production conditions and buyers’ different product requirements, but the downward trend of polysilicon prices will continue. 

Monthly granular polysilicon supply increases steadily, currently surpassing tens of thousands of metric tons. For now, price gap sustains between granular polysilicon and mono-grade polysilicon produced by leading manufacturers, but with chances of widening in the future. 

As many companies are still sealing orders this week, there is a bigger room for negotiation. However, due to growing concerns about future price declines and limited increases in demand, most buyers place small, frequent orders or put in additional orders later on instead of buying in bulk. Polysilicon inventory on the spot market remains high. Tier-1 polysilicon manufacturers adjust sales strategies flexibly, delivering orders actively. It is increasingly difficult for Tier-2 and Tier-3 polysilicon manufacturers to ship, forcing them to offer lower price quotes, widening the price gap between them and their Tier-1 peers. The sales environment of the polysilicon sector is undergoing fundamental changes and is full of uncertainties. 
 

Wafer

Monthly production capacity of mono-Si wafers will rise more evidently in April, potentially reaching 46-47 GW, an 11-13% month-on-month increase. There is still room for growth in May.

On April 6, Zhonghuan published its latest pricings for wafers, making major adjustments to the prices for the two mainstream formats. The announcement marks the beginning of a price decline for 210mm wafers, prompting other manufacturers to follow suit, cutting prices for 210mm wafers by 1.8% to around RMB 8.05/W. The cost-performance ratio of 210mm wafers continues improving on previous basis, but that of PV systems based on 210mm products is not as favorable due to elevated prices for 210mm cells, of which the premium is to be heeded for future development.  

With a larger number of suppliers and more dispersed supply across sales channels, 182mm wafers see more intense competition. This week, as concerns about future price declines deepen, Tier-2 and Tier-3 wafer manufacturers lower prices for 182mm wafers from last week's RMB 6.45-6.5/piece to RMB 6.4/piece, close to Zhonghuan's latest official pricings. As of this Wednesday, Longi has yet to adjust wafer prices for external sales, making its pricings the highest on the market. Future wafer price trend is subject to that of 182mm cells. 
 

Cell

Cell prices remain at last week’s levels, sitting at RMB 1.07/W for M10 cells, and RMB 1.13/W for G12 ones. In overseas markets, cell prices sustain a premium of RMB 0.02-0.03/W. 

G12 cell premium can be attributed to recent supply-demand dynamics.

G12 cells were not widely accepted at the first introduction to the market. Given that, manufacturers modified production lines to accommodate G12 products, while continue producing M10 ones. As a result, G12 cells have much fewer suppliers and smaller production capacity than M10 ones. Recently, eyeing the profitability and market potential, cell manufacturers gradually switch production to G12 cells. However, it takes around a month to complete switching and debugging processes. As demand for G12 products rapidly increases, a temporary shortage appears, pushing up the premium for G12 cells.      

The increase in demand for G12 cells is driven by deliveries for previous tenders of utility-scale ground-mounted projects and the market’s demand for modules with higher power output being shifted from M10 cells to G12 ones, as the supply for the former runs short. 

The premium of G12 cells builds up cost pressures for the module sector. Still, module makers keep purchase targets unchanged to ensure stable supply for clients and to secure larger market share. 

Cell manufacturers are gradually adopting a new approach, with some accepting orders from module makers in anticipation of future wafer price declines that could potentially lead to a drop in cell prices. While it is possible for cell prices to fall with a decrease in wafer prices, but a hasty shift from M10 to G12 production lines may result in an imbalance in the supply-demand relationship. If this happens, cell prices may stay elevated, or even advance further. 

Following p-type cell price trend, n-type cell prices are little changed this week, sitting at RMB 1.2-1.22/W for M10 TOPCon cells.  For G12 HJT cells, most orders come from markets outside of China, with still low trading volume, and trading prices sitting at RMB 1.3-1.4/W. TOPCon cells see both the number of suppliers and trading volume increasing. Starting next month, InfoLink will begin posting spot prices for TOPCon cells.
 

Module

Module price range has widened this week, sitting at RMB 1.63-1.74/W for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W, and RMB 1.65-1.75/W for glass-glass ones. The widening is largely the result of varying pricing strategies among Tier-1 and the rest module makers. The top four manufacturers raise prices for distributed generation projects by RMB 0.02-0.05/W, while leaving prices for utility-scale ground-mounted projects unchanged at RMB 1.7-1.72/W. The low-price range narrows, due to end users’ low acceptance and apparent attempt to keep prices in check. Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers offer price quotes as low as RMB 1.63-1.68/W to secure orders and a place on the shortlist. Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers will continue bidding at lower prices to get on the shortlist, disrupting module price trend.  

In overseas markets, module prices sustain to USD 0.21-0.22/W (FOB). In Europe, module prices sit at USD 0.21-0.22/W this month. In the U.S., prices stabilize at USD 0.4-0.45/W (DDP) for modules imported from Southeast Asia, and USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) for U.S.-made ones. In Australia, the Middle East and Africa, and Brazil, prices come in at USD 0.21-0.25/WUSD 0.21-0.22/W, and USD 0.195-0.226/W, respectively. In India, prices stabilize at USD 0.29-0.33/W for locally made modules and USD 0.215-0.22/W (tax excluded) for modules imported from China. 

N-type module prices are consistent. Module makers will still be under greater cost pressure, given wafer and cell shortages. The price difference can hardly narrow as expected. 

For G12 HJT modules, prices come in at RMB 1.9-1.95/W, while holding at USD 0.26/W in non-China markets. In China, some module makers adjust the premium of HJT modules against PERC modules.

M10 TOPCon modules see prices sustain at around RMB 1.75-1.84/W, and USD 0.23-0.235/W in overseas markets this week.