Upstream prices experience lasting gradual decline

Polysilicon

Polysilicon prices continue to fall gradually. Prices for mono-grade polysilicon, drop to RMB 180-192/kg, averaging RMB 189/kg. Prices of major polysilicon manufacturers drop evidently. Granular polysilicon and polysilicon chunk. The overall price range is even lower when factoring in polysilicon of lower quality, such as popcorn polysilicon, multi-grade polysilicon, and dropped granules. There will be temporary price discrepancies due to varying production conditions and buyers’ different product requirements, but the downward trend of polysilicon prices will continue. 

Given growing concerns about future price declines and limited increases in demand, it is more difficult to sell polysilicon. Polysilicon inventory on the spot market is expected to reach a record high in April. Tier-1 polysilicon manufacturers adjust sales strategies flexibly, delivering orders actively, intensifying competition in the polysilicon sector. 
 

Wafer

The increase in mono-Si wafer supply becomes more evident in mid-April. Both the number of suppliers and the growth of production increase faster. Meanwhile, the impact quartz crucible supply has on ingot production per furnace persists. Manufacturers increase the number of furnaces, only to achieve notable but temporary effects. This measure sustains production volume but fails to maintain product quality. 

182mm wafers see heightened competition due to a larger number of suppliers and more dispersed supply across sales channels. This week, prices continue decreasing. Overall trading prices decline to RMB 6.34-6.38/piece, lower than Zhonghuan’s latest pricings published on April 6 and further away from Longi’s previous pricings.  Mono-Si wafers will see an expanding price range widening, which hinges on the next move of leading manufacturers. 
 

Cell

Prices hold steady for the time being. But orders of major module makers show cell trading prices sustaining a gradual downward trend. Further declines are inevitable. 

Cell prices will stay on a downward trend as wafer prices decline. However, hasty shifts from M10 to G12 production lines may result in an imbalance in the supply-demand relationship. If this happens, cell prices may stay elevated, or even advance further. 

Following p-type cell price trend, n-type cell prices are little changed this week, sitting at RMB 1.19-1.22/W for M10 TOPCon cells.  For G12 HJT cells, most orders come from markets outside of China, with still low trading volume, and trading prices sitting at RMB 1.3-1.4/W. TOPCon cells see both the number of suppliers and trading volume increasing. Starting next month, InfoLink will begin posting spot prices for TOPCon cells.
 

Module

Module prices reflect last week’s declines, averaging at RMB 1.67-1.7/W for glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W. Module makers deliver glass-backsheet modules rated beyond 500 W at RMB 1.63-1.75/W, and glass-glass ones at RMB 1.65-1.76/W this week. 
There is a distinct division between prices of Tier-1 module makers and the rest. Tier-1 module makers see inventory piling up in some channels, and prices losing ground for some projects. Overall, prices linger at RMB 1.68-1.72/W for Tier-1 modules. Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers offer price quotes as low as RMB 1.63-1.68/W to secure orders and a place on the shortlist. Some orders are purportedly delivered at RMB 1.63/W. Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers will continue bidding at lower prices to get on the shortlist, disrupting module price trend. Given end users’ apparent efforts to keep prices in check, further declines are likely after the second quarter. 

In overseas markets, module prices sustain to USD 0.21-0.22/W (FOB). In Europe, module prices sit at USD 0.21-0.22/W this month. In the U.S., prices stabilize at USD 0.4-0.45/W (DDP) for modules imported from Southeast Asia, USD 0.38-0.4/W (DDP) for those imported by Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers, and USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) for U.S.-made ones. In Latin America, prices slip to USD 0.21-0.215/W. In Australia, the Middle East and Africa, and Brazil, prices come in at USD 0.21-0.25/WUSD 0.20-0.22/W, and USD 0.195-0.226/W, respectively. In India, prices stabilize at USD 0.29-0.33/W for locally made modules and USD 0.215-0.22/W (before tax) for modules imported from China. 

N-type module prices are consistent. For G12 HJT modules, prices come in at RMB 1.9-2/W, while holding at USD 0.26/W in non-China markets. 

M10 TOPCon modules see prices sustain at around RMB 1.73-1.84/W this week, averaging RMB 1.8-1.82/W, and USD 0.23-0.235/W in overseas markets this week.