Downstream prices sustain despite ceaseless polysilicon price declines

*Effective May, cell spot price will be posted based on 23.1% efficiency, and TOPCon cell spot price will be listed separately.
*Spot price will not be released for the upcoming week due to the Labor Day holiday.
 

Polysilicon

Polysilicon production operates smoothly this month, with several leading manufacturers commissioning new capacities in the second quarter.  Commissioning progress varies. Overall, production capacity will increase more significantly in the latter part of the second quarter. Polysilicon inventory on the spot market remains high at the month’s end, with manufacturers holding great levels of inventory alternatingly. 

As the Labor Day holiday approaches, manufacturers negotiate and deliver orders actively, with some adjusting and reversing their sales strategies. Mono-grade polysilicon prices extend declines, with those of leading manufacturers dropping to RMB 174-183/kg this week, and more recent orders being sealed at prices lower than RMB 180/kg. Factoring in popcorn polysilicon, multi-grade polysilicon, and dropped granules, overall trading prices may have fallen below RMB 170/kg. Granular polysilicon still sees a considerable price difference with mono-grade polysilicon but requires more advanced technology for users.
 

Wafer

Mono-Si wafer supply increases much faster. Despite stockpiling demand due to the Labor Day holiday, anticipation of price declines and more sufficient supply make it increasingly difficult to settle price negotiations. Some buyers even suspended deliveries to wait for the next round of pricing updates.

182mm wafers see heightened competition due to a larger number of suppliers and more dispersed supply across sales channels. 210mm wafer supply increases more evidently this month, but prices slip despite previously superior cost-performance ratio per watt.

Prices for p-type 182mm wafers continue to drop, with those of mainstream manufacturers falling to RMB 6.22-6.28/piece. Prices of leading manufacturers sustain but are expected to decline as well. Many Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers see prices dipping lower than RMB 6.2/piece, but the number only serves as a reference due to relatively small supply volumes and market shares. Prices for p-type 210mm wafers lose ground, coming in at RMB 7.96-8.02/piece. 

In March and April, as supply increased, and production costs lowered amid polysilicon price declines, the wafer sector saw profitability recovering, thus having a bigger room for price cuts.  In May, price declines for wafers of all formats are likely. 
 

Cell

Cell prices remain at last week’s levels, sitting at RMB 1.07/W for M10 cells, and RMB 1.13/W for G12 ones. In overseas markets, cell prices sustain a premium of RMB 0.02-0.03/W. 

Cell prices stand firm, but Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers can hardly accept current cell prices under cost pressures.  Given that, mid and small-scale module makers may cut production in the middle of next month. 

Cell prices will continue to dip amid ceaseless declines in polysilicon prices. Cells of all formats will face a potential price drop after the holiday stock-up.

Following p-type cell price trend, n-type cell prices are little changed this week. M10 TOPCon cells are mostly traded at RMB 1.2-1.22/W, some even at RMB 1.19/W. For G12 HJT cells, most orders come from markets outside of China, with still low trading volume, and trading prices sitting at RMB 1.3-1.4/W. TOPCon cells see both the number of suppliers and trading volume increasing. Starting next month, InfoLink will begin posting spot prices for TOPCon cells.
 

Module

Modules prices sustain this week. Glass-backsheet and glass-glass modules rated beyond 500 W are delivered at RMB 1.63-1.75/W and RMB 1.65-1.76/W, mostly at RMB 1.67-1.7/W and RMB 1.68-1.72/W, respectively. Price gap between the two remains distinct.

Some Tier-1 manufacturers report abundant order volumes, depleting inventories in sales channels, with prices lingering at RMB 1.68-1.72/W. For distributed generation projects, module prices of Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers are RMB 0.05/W lower than that of their Tier-1 peers. Module makers keep bidding at varying prices. Due to end users' apparent effort to keep prices in check, many module makers are poised to cut prices in May. Hopefully, prices will decline gradually in the remaining second quarter amid cost fluctuations.

In overseas markets, module prices sustain to USD 0.21-0.22/W (FOB). In Europe, module prices sit at USD 0.21-0.22/W this month. In the U.S., prices stabilize at USD 0.4-0.45/W (DDP) for modules imported from Southeast Asia, USD 0.38-0.4/W (DDP) for those imported by Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers, and USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) for U.S.-made ones. In Latin America, prices slip to USD 0.21-0.215/W. In Australia, the Middle East and Africa, and Brazil, prices come in at USD 0.21-0.25/WUSD 0.20-0.22/W, and USD 0.195-0.226/W, respectively. In India, prices stabilize at USD 0.29-0.33/W for locally made modules and USD 0.215-0.22/W (before tax) for modules imported from China. 

N-type module prices are consistent. For G12 HJT modules, prices come in at RMB 1.9-2/W, while holding at USD 0.25-0.26/W in non-China markets. 

M10 TOPCon modules see prices sustain at around RMB 1.73-1.82/W this week, with the mainstream prices sitting at RMB 1.78-1.82/W. In overseas markets, prices hold steady at USD 0.23-0.235/W.