Downstream prices decline as wafer pares drop

Polysilicon

The SNEC commences as scheduled in Shanghai this week, attracting industry-wide attention and captivating attendees with a vibrant atmosphere.

Polysilicon prices continue to drop as the supply-demand dynamics shift. The gap between supply and demand widens, intensifying an oversupply. The volume of new orders this week decreases, for polysilicon demand weakens as ingot manufacturers recently cut utilization rates noticeably. Purchase and order activities remain sluggish attitude, with buyers only purchasing to meet the inelastic demand for polysilicon for production.  

Prices for mono-grade polysilicon drop to RMB 120-132/kg, sustaining RMB 10-15/kg higher than that of Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers. For granular polysilicon, the price gap widens as well. For n-type polysilicon, Tier-1 manufacturers maintain a price gap of RMB 2-4/kg and account for most of the production capacity. As of the end of May, polysilicon inventory builds up on levels of the previous month. On the spot market, inventory level is close to or as high as the production volume of a whole month. Sales pressure on polysilicon manufacturers persists and is not likely to ease until June. 
 

Wafer

Price declines for mono-Si wafers continue, though at a much slower pace this week.

Prices for M10 mono-Si wafers fall to RMB 4.1-4.4/piece. On the spot market, few orders within the low-price range approach RMB 4/piece, but the market price maintains at around RMB 4.15/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 9.8%. Prices for G12 mono-Si wafers plummet to RMB 5.9-6.1/piece, averaging RMB 6/piece, a week-on-week decrease of 1.6%, much smaller than that of M10.

Since mid-May, leading manufacturers have been reducing utilization rates in the ingot segment to varying degrees. Those with more drastic reductions have much less demand for polysilicon, triggering faster declines in polysilicon prices. However, the reduction will not have a timely effect on the current oversupply of mono-Si wafers until June. Meantime, the spot inventory of mono-Si wafers rises, of which the depletion hinges on utilization rate reduction in the ingot segment. InfoLink will keep a close eye on the development, which is expected to become evident in June.

This round of wafer price fluctuations is expected to stabilize temporarily due to the utilization rate adjustments in the ingot segment and the consideration of polysilicon costs. Whether prices for M10 mono-Si wafers will fall below RMB 4/piece remains uncertain. There is a growing market sentiment towards "short-term bottom-fishing". Whether the wafer sector can keep wafer prices stable at the expense of utilization rates of the ingot segment is still in question. 
 

Cell

Cell prices drop in line with unceasing wafer price declines. Still, cell manufacturers sustain high utilization rates, except some undergo equipment maintenance due to power shortages. Days of inventory on hand remains within five days. Demand is still strong. 

Prices come in at RMB 0.9-0.92/W and RMB 1-1.01/W for M10 and G12 cells, respectively, decreasing 3-6%. Overseas markets see sharper price declines as buyers use the locked-in exchange rate for prices in dollar terms. 

For TOPCon (M10) cells, prices drop in line with wafer prices, coming in at RMB 1.03/W. Even with the declines, n-type cells sustain stable premiums against p-type ones. 

Thanks to strong demand, cell manufacturers have yet to feel the full impact of wafer price declines and sustain profits. With wafer prices continuing to fall, cell prices may drop next week. Actual price range depends on negotiation outcomes.
 

Module

In May, projects initiate, and upstream prices are poised to decline, reinforcing the wait-and-see attitude among end users. Various factors contribute to the postponement of the project scheduled for construction in the second quarter, resulting in slower-than-expected inventory depletion. Module makers give in, thus prices decrease marginally. Glass-backsheet modules are delivered at RMB 1.6-1.74/W, mostly RMB 1.65-/W. For glass-glass modules, prices mostly sit at RMB 1.65-1.68/W.  Considering production costs, some manufacturers begin to adjust pricing strategies. 

In overseas markets, module prices stabilize for the time being. Module makers deliver orders at USD 0.2-0.22/W (FOB). In Europe, module prices sit at USD 0.21-0.215/W in April. In some channels, inventory piles up, with prices coming in at USD 0.23-0.24/W. Prices for Chinese modules remain 10-20% cheaper than those of non-China brands. 

In the U.S., prices stabilize at USD 0.4-0.45/W (DDP) for modules imported from Southeast Asia, USD 0.38-0.4/W for module imports of Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers, and USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) for U.S.-made ones. In Latin America, prices sustain at USD 0.21-0.215/W. 

In Australia, the Middle East and Africa, and Brazil, prices come in at USD 0.21-0.25/W, USD 0.20-0.22/W, and USD 0.19-0.225/W, respectively. In India, average module prices slip to USD 0.295/W for locally made modules, while delivering prices stay at USD 0.29-0.33/W. For modules imported from China and Southeast Asia, prices each come in at USD 0.215-0.22/W and USD 0.26-0.27/W (before tax).

For G12 HJT modules, prices temporarily stabilize at RMB 1.83-1.9/W this week. Future declines are likely as wafer and cell prices drop. In non-China markets, prices sustain at USD 0.25-0.26/W.

M10 TOPCon module prices lose ground this week, coming in at RMB 1.71-1.79/W, mostly at RMB 1.73-1.75/W. In non-China markets, prices hold steady at USD 0.225-0.24/W.