Module prices are mixed as price range widens

Polysilicon

In the upstream, oversupply intensifies, with polysilicon supply and spot inventory continuing to increase. As of the end of May, polysilicon inventory on the spot market exceeded a one-month production. Polysilicon inventory will keep piling up in June, given muted buying appetites and the release of new production capacities. 

The polysilicon sector sees lackluster purchasing and order-signing activities. With the fear of inventory write-down and waning polysilicon demand after adjusting utilization rates, buyers place frequent, small-volume orders, hedging risks with shorter order cycle time. Eager to ship under inventory pressure, some polysilicon manufacturers compromise significantly on prices. 

This week, prices drop faster for mono-grade polysilicon to RMB 110-118/kg, building up the pressure of excess supply. Some manufacturers offer price quotes slightly above this range, while prices of some Tier-2 manufacturers fall below RMB 100-109/kg. The price gap between granular polysilicon and polysilicon chunk widens to RMB 10-16/kg. As polysilicon prices decline rapidly, approaching the low-price range, granular polysilicon will find it increasingly challenging to secure its cost-performance advantage. 
 

Wafer

Destocking is the primary objective of wafer manufacturers for now. In addition to continuous price cuts, manufacturers try to reduce inventory burden through dual distribution and OEM businesses or by trimming down utilization rates. As of the end of May, the growth of mono-Si wafer inventory level slowed down, sitting at 15-16 GW. 

This week, prices pare declines for M10 and G12 wafers, falling 4-6% to RMB 3.9/W and RMB 5.75/W, respectively. Some Tier-2 manufacturers offer price quotes of RMB 3.8/W for M10 wafers. Overall, wafer prices stay on a slow downward trend. 

Wafer manufacturers cut production, but actual output will not decrease until mid-June. Currently, manufacturers only trim down production marginally, with some hoping to raise production plans again after the reduction in June. In June, wafer production plan and production volume will not be low enough to stabilize prices, which will continue declining slowly and fluctuate in line with delivering prices and utilization rates. 
 

Cell

Under pressures from the module sector, cell prices drop along with that of wafers, despite fair demand and monthly increasing production output. 

Cell prices continue falling this week, coming in at RMB 0.87-0.9/W and RMB 0.98-0.99/W for M10 and G12 cells, decreasing by 3.3% and 2%, respectively. In overseas markets, prices fluctuate this week as some buyers used the locked-in exchange rate for prices in dollar terms before. 

For M10 TOPCon cells, prices drop in line with wafer prices, coming in at RMB 1/W. Some orders are sealed at RMB 0.98/W. N-type cell prices sustain RMB 0.11/W higher than p-type ones. Also affected by wafer price declines, the few suppliers of G12 HJT cells see prices drop to RMB 1.15/W. 

Presently, manufacturers sustain profits, as impacts of wafer price declines have yet to ripple fully to the cell sector. Most manufacturers will operate at full capacity and dedicate all capacity to external sales in June, but actual utilization rates may alter as module makers are likely to reduce production.    
 

Module

After the SNEC, the module sector started to feel pressures from upstream price declines. For now, the sector has an inventory overhang of one to two months, with some module makers planning to deplete inventory. As of the end of May, developers in China remained in a wait-and-see mode. Overseas developers followed suit, resulting in deferrals of new orders and slower-than-expected inventory depletion.  

Module prices stay on a clear downward trend this week. Prices of Tier-1 module makers come in at RMB 1.54-1.58/W. Average module prices sit at RMB 1.6-1.63/W for glass-backsheet modules, and RMB 1.62-1.65/W for glass-glass ones, as module makers are still delivering previous orders. Prices of Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers drop as low as RMB 1.5/W, underlining the currently drastic price declines. Demand may rebound to underpin module prices after upstream prices stabilize.  

Differing from previous expectation, production plans are little changed in June, increasing by 1-2 GW to 43-45 GW from the month prior, as module makers are concerned about inventory level.  

In overseas markets, module prices stabilize for the time being. Fluctuations are likely in June, as the market seals orders at RMB 0.18-0.19/W for the second half of the year. This week, module makers deliver orders at USD 0.2-0.22/W (FOB). In Europe, module prices sit at USD 0.21-0.215/W in April. Inventory piles up in distribution channels, with prices coming in at USD 0.23-0.24/W. Prices for Chinese modules remain 10-20% cheaper than those of non-China brands. 

In the U.S., prices stabilize at USD 0.4-0.45/W (DDP) for modules imported from Southeast Asia, USD 0.38-0.4/W for module imports of Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers, and USD 0.55-0.6/W (DDP) for U.S.-made ones.  

In India, average module prices slip to USD 0.29/W for locally made modules, while delivering prices stay at USD 0.29-0.33/W. For modules imported from China and Southeast Asia, prices each come in at USD 0.21-0.22/W and USD 0.26-27/W (before tax).

G12 HJT module prices slip in line with price changes across the supply chain. Module makers deliver at RMB 1.8-1.84/W recently. In June, prices may drop along with declines in wafer and cell prices. In overseas markets, prices sit at USD 0.25-0.26/W for the time being. 

M10 TOPCon module prices lose ground this week, coming in at RMB 1.7-1.75/W, mostly at RMB 1.72-1.73/W. In non-China markets, prices hold steady at USD 0.225-0.24/W.