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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | June 28, 2023 |
Polysilicon
Mono-grade polysilicon prices drop to RMB 60-65/W, a 5.9% week-on-week decrease. The gap narrows evidently between prices of Tier-1 manufacturers and their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers. Having entered the low-price range, even lower than the break-even point, prices see limited room for further declines.
Polysilicon supply increases steadily, whilst demand and order volume recover. As prices linger at the low point, buyers are less concerned, negotiating and placing orders to meet their inelastic demand. Manufacturers’ strategies vary hugely as to whether to stockpile and buy the dip or not. Given higher temperatures in the third quarter, more uncertainties, and latent threats, some buyers have taken active measures to respond or purchase.
Some leading manufacturers see sales volumes of mono-grade polysilicon and recycled polysilicon scraps recover significantly, alleviating inventory pressures. There still is 60,000-70,000 MT of inventory on the spot market, of which the distribution among manufacturers shifts temporarily. Given the increasing demand for n-type products from the downstream, the sufficiency of polysilicon on the spot market is subject to change.
Wafer
Wafer prices keep falling but at a slower pace. As prices correct, the market starts buying the dip. Part of the total wafer inventory is now in the hand of traders and cell manufacturers.
Trading prices for M10 and G12 wafers slip and become less dispersed this week. Meantime, average prices stabilize at RMB 2.8/piece for M10 wafers, while returning to around RMB 4/piece for G12 ones. The low-price range ceases dropping. Overall, price declines come to a gradual end. M10 wafers have a better price-performance ratio per watt.
Provided wafer manufacturers keep higher utilization rates and bring online new capacities as scheduled, wafer inventory will not decrease, but continue piling up. As a result, prices will remain low. Still, prices approaching the break-even point will force some manufacturers to cut utilization rates. In July, manufacturers will continue regulating price and inventory levels by adjusting utilization rates.
Cell
Cell demand sustains. Manufacturers keep the days of inventory on hand at a healthy level of two to three days. With lower sales pressures, cell manufacturers buy wafers at the dip and have great profit margins.
Cell prices continue falling this week, coming in at RMB 0.7/W and RMB 0.73/W for M10 and G12 cells. Trading prices for M10 cells sustain less decrease, sitting at RMB 0.68-0.69/W, down 1-3%.
For M10 TOPCon cells, prices drop in line with wafer prices, coming in at RMB 0.78/W. N-type cell prices sustain RMB 0.08/W higher than p-type ones. Also affected by wafer price declines, the few suppliers of G12 HJT cells see prices drop to RMB 1/W.
Operating at full capacity and selling all production smoothly, cell manufacturers may raise prices in July as wafer price declines gradually cease. Next week, cell prices will stay at this week’s level. Future price trend hinges on the outcome of negotiations with module makers.
Module
This week, module makers deliver at more diversified prices, with several of them clearing stocks. For glass-backsheet modules, prices come in at RMB 1.28-1.58/W this week. Factoring out sell-offs, prices dip lower than RMB 1.3/W for new orders of small module makers and clearance.
Deliveries of some new orders in July are delayed, of which the resumption hinges on whether supply chain prices will stabilize. Production plans in July remain obscure. New orders suggest marginal price declines, much slower than tumbles in June. Module makers want to keep prices steady and shift pressures to the cell sector. However, cell prices can hardly drop further, for there is a limited volume of cells available on the market. Additionally, prices for some BOMs rise due to commodity price hikes. Against these backdrops, module production costs increase. For PERC modules some Tier-1 module makers seal new orders for July at RMB 1.35-1.38/W, while some Tier-2 and Tier-3 makers offer price quotes at RMB 1.3/W. For TOPCon and HJT ones, prices come in at RMB 1.4-1.5/W and RMB 1.65-1.7/W, respectively.
In non-China markets, prices drop marginally this week. Chinese exporters deliver products at USD 0.17-0.2/W (FOB). Spot prices fall to USD 0.2-0.205/W in Europe due to inventory concerns, while reaching as low as USD 0.17-0.185/W in the Asia-Pacific market. In the U.S., prices stabilize. Distribution prices of Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers drag down the low-price range. Fluctuations in the third quarter are to be heeded. For locally manufactured modules, prices stabilize for the time being and may fluctuate along with price declines across the supply chain.
For G12 HJT modules, average prices lose ground to RMB 1.7/W. Module makers deliver at RMB 1.65-1.72/W recently. Some module makers stop offering price quotes due to supply chain disruptions. In non-China markets, prices sit at USD 0.21-0.24/W for the time being.
M10 TOPCon module prices remain at RMB 1.4-1.6/W this week. In non-China markets, prices hold steady at USD 0.195-0.23/W, with a premium of USD 0.005-0.01/W against prices for PERC modules.