Downstream prices hardly sustain as wafer continues gains

Polysilicon

Rising polysilicon prices reflect the odd supply-demand mismatch in upstream sectors. Leading manufacturers fail to meet demand from the ingot segment, despite current order arrangements and shipment frequency. Some ingot manufacturers venture to sign orders for mono-grade polysilicon and recycled polysilicon scraps at higher prices. Trading prices for sporadic orders reach RMB 81-85/kg, but order volumes are relatively small.

The industry takes heed of the module sector’s acceptance as polysilicon prices continue rallying. However, which of the polysilicon and the wafer sector is the major driving force behind the strong upstream price rebound remains unclear.

Module production plans and shipping progress remain the industry’s focus at the end of the third quarter. Judging from the increase in actual production volume of upstream sectors, there will be limited month-on-month production growth in September.
 

Wafer

Due to the various supply-demand mismatches, demand for wafers stays vigorous. Leading wafer manufacturers updated price quotes on the night of August 21, raising official pricings by 3-6%. Wafer prices still have upward momentum in the short term.

Trading prices rise this week. For p-type M10 wafers, which experience the tightest supply, trading prices come in mostly at RMB 3.33-3.35/piece, as most manufacturers take orders at new pricings. P-type G12 wafers are less scarce, with trading prices coming in at RMB 4.35/piece, as cell manufacturers accepted the updated prices in succession, while a few of them continue negotiating. Prices for n-type M10 and G12 wafers with a thickness of 130μm reach RMB 3.47/piece and RMB 4.47/piece, respectively. G12 wafers, n-type and p-type, maintain a superior price-performance ratio per watt.

Wafer prices will stabilize next week, as manufacturers seal orders at the updated pricings. Wafer price trend in September requires further observation, hinging on wafer production and depletion capacities and the momentum of polysilicon price hikes, even cell price trend will affect wafer prices.
 

Cell

Though the cell supply is not abundant, short-term cell prices will remain stable given the price acceptance of module makers has reached the limit.

Cell prices stay at last week’s level, sitting at RMB 0.75/W for M10 cells and RMB 0.73/W for G12 cells. Prices for M10 TOPCon cells stabilize at RMB 0.8-0.81/W. N-type cell prices sustain RMB 0.05-0.06/W higher than p-type ones. G12 HJT cells, with few suppliers, see prices come in at RMB 0.85/W.

Cell prices are losing ground, for purchases from the module sector have yet to pick up as module prices decline after the delivery of high-price orders previously signed. Still, some module makers with vertical integration advantages keep purchasing actively. Presently, some traders and manufacturers sell off low-efficiency cells in advance, indicating the market’s bygone optimism toward cell prices in September.
 

Module

Module prices decline mildly this week, with average prices stagnating at RMB 1.21-1.25/W. For ground-mounted projects, module prices mostly come in at RMB 1.23-1.25/W, but some manufacturers have begun to deliver at prices lower than RMB 1.2/W. Delivery prices for previous orders come in at RMB 1.3-1.35/W.

Module makers raised price quotes for distributed generation projects a few weeks ago. Tier-1 manufacturers raised the quotes by RMB 0.01-0.03/W, for the supply of popular modules is slightly tight. Nevertheless, given the project developers’ acceptance, price negotiations continue. Average prices fell marginally to RMB 1.2-1.23/W, with the low-price range lingering at RMB 1.15-1.18/W, and the high-price range sitting at RMB 1.28/W.

For n-type modules, prices stabilize this week. TOPCon modules are delivered at RMB 1.25-1.38/W and USD 0.17-0.2/W, with the premium against PERC ones sustaining at USD 0.01/W overseas. For HJT modules, prices remain at RMB 1.5-1.6/W in China, but prices for the spot inventory come in at RMB 1.45/W. In non-China markets, HJT module prices sit at USD 0.195-0.2/W.

Chinese exporters deliver products at USD 0.16-0.18/W (FOB) this week. In Asia-Pacific, module makers deliver at USD 0.16-0.17/W. In Europe, spot prices stabilize at EUR 0.15-0.17/W, with modules with black backsheets possessing a premium of EUR 0.02-0.025/W. Some module makers keep selling off inventory. With orders signed prior to deliveries, modules for ground-mounted projects in the U.S. see a steady price trend. Meanwhile, for distributed generation projects, module prices are subject to market demand and thus more volatile. Presently, the price disparity between the two is rather huge, sitting at USD 0.3-0.42/W (DDP).