Cell prices show signs of decline while wafer price hikes sustain

Polysilicon

Monthly polysilicon production volume is estimated to rise by 56-57 GW in September, a 6-8% month-on-month increase and the first monthly growth in the third quarter.

With a period of high temperature and high electricity consumption in China coming to an end, major manufacturers see monthly production volumes recovering at varying paces. Production volumes of most leading manufacturers finally rise, while that of some remain low, even dropping month-on-month due to sudden incidents. Additionally, new players will gradually release capacities at the end of the third quarter, contributing to the positive growth of total monthly production volume.

Nevertheless, manufacturers take orders at increasingly high prices. The mainstream price range climbs to RMB 78-87/kg for mono-grade polysilicon and RMB 89-96/kg for high-quality ones from leading manufacturers, with price quotes for some sporadic orders exceeding this range. Such price hikes seem to contradict increasing production volume. However, actual supply of polysilicon of different qualities varies more significantly on the spot market. Monthly rising utilization rates of the ingot segment and the ensuing rapid growth of polysilicon demand can lessen that contradiction.

Wafer

Manufacturers keep revising up production plans in September, with monthly output exceeding 60 GW, a 10% month-on-month growth. As Tier-1 and Tier-2 manufacturers sustain relatively high utilization rates, sales pressure on the wafer sector will mount amid the continuously increasing output. Presently, wafer supply rises gradually. With polysilicon price hikes showing no sign of end, wafer manufacturers lose profit margin bit by bit. Overall, wafer price trend is relatively stable.

N-type wafer prices will be available starting this week. Trading prices for M10 wafers are stable, given a minor supply-demand mismatch, coming in at RMB 3.33-3.35/piece and RMB 3.45-3.47/piece for p-type and n-type ones, respectively. For G12 wafers, trading prices for p-type ones fall slightly to RMB 4.25/piece, with some wiggle room as leading cell manufacturers are still depleting their wafer inventory. N-type G12 wafers, with a smaller market share, see prices stay elevated at RMB 4.47/piece.

Next week, wafer prices will stabilize at current level as polysilicon prices rise, while subject to the extent of polysilicon price hikes and utilization rates of leading manufacturers.
 

Cell

Usually cutting production when profits shrink to mitigate the impact of cell prices, module makers keep production plans little changed uncharacteristically in recent months to attain shipment targets, despite some trimming down utilization rates. However, cell manufacturers start cutting prices this week.

Trading prices for M10 cells decline, coming in at RMB 0.73-0.75/W for PERC ones. As of this Wednesday, negotiations for new orders continued, with the low-price range falling to RMB 0.72-0.73/W. For M10 TOPCon cells, trading prices sit at RMB 0.78-0.8/W, and the volume traded at RMB 0.78/W is expanding. N-type cell prices sustain RMB 0.05-0.06/W higher than p-type ones.

G12 PERC cell prices stabilize at RMB 0.73/W due to the balanced supply-demand relationship. G12 HJT cells, mostly for in-house use and less for external sales, see prices remaining at RMB 0.85/W.

Despite this week’s declines due to the cell sector’s pessimistic view on module price trend, the sector still possesses fair production and sales capability. In the short term, cell prices may decline further, but only at a slow pace lest accelerating module price drops.
 

Module

Module prices for new orders are mixed in September. Tier-1 manufacturers deliver at RMB 1.16-1.24/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 1.15-1.25/W for distributed generation projects. Some even offer price quotes higher than RMB 1.3/W.

Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers generally raise price quotes by RMB 0.02/W out of cost concerns. Prices for glass-backsheet modules sit at RMB 1.24-1.26/W, but trading volume is rather small due to the limited end-user acceptance. While the momentum of price hike is still not there yet, module makers get more pressure as the BOM prices rise. Tier-1 module makers accept lower forward prices, many being lower than RMB 1.2/W, to vie for orders. This September, most likely, prices will stabilize, and should they rise, it will be marginal.

Prices for n-type modules shift slightly. The average prices for TOPCon modules come in at RMB 1.3-1.33/W and the orders are delivered at RMB 1.25-1.38/W and USD 0.15-0.21, with the premium against PERC ones sustaining at USD 0.008-0.01/W overseas. For HJT modules, prices remain at RMB 1.5-1.6/W in China, but prices for the spot inventory come in at RMB 1.45/W. In non-China markets, HJT module prices sit at USD 0.195-0.2/W.

Chinese exporters deliver products at USD 0.15-0.165/W (FOB) this week. In Asia-Pacific, module makers deliver at USD 0.155-0.16/W. Prices for local modules in India, come in at USD 0.25-0.26/W. In Europe, spot prices drop to EUR 0.15-0.165/W, with modules with black backsheets possessing a premium of EUR 0.02-0.025/W. With orders signed prior to deliveries, modules for ground-mounted projects in the U.S. see a steady price trend. Meanwhile, for distributed generation projects, module prices are subject to market demand and thus more volatile. Presently, the price disparity between the two is rather huge, sitting at USD 0.3-0.42/W (DDP).