N-type wafer prices slip while module makers lower utilization rates amid sluggish demand

Polysilicon

Dynamics between upstream sectors were obscure in the last week of 2023. Overall, the ingot segment sustained utilization rates despite reductions of some manufacturers, indicating stable polysilicon demand for ingot production, particularly n-type ingot, which rises steadily. Fluctuations in utilization rates of the ingot segment in 1Q24 should be monitored before and after the Lunar New Year holiday, as this will affect polysilicon supply.

Polysilicon manufacturers delivered orders without significant price changes for orders taken previously. For n-type ingot production, they offered price quotes tentatively. Overall, price quotes were close to the previous levels.

Prices for polysilicon for n-type ingot production saw prices come in at RMB 65-68/kg, while prices for mono-grade polysilicon for p-type ingots at a wider range of RMB 55-62/kg. Mainstream prices of granular polysilicon came in at RMB 55-59/kg, while prices for popcorn polysilicon and multi-grade polysilicon dropped significantly to RMB 48-53/kg. Price declines will slow down in the future as prices have been close to the low point, forcing many manufacturers out of profitability.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices stabilized as purchases ceased at the year’s end while continuing to decline for certain formats.

This week, average trading prices varied among different formats. For p-type M10 and G12 wafers, trading prices remained at RMB 2/piece and RMB 3/piece, respectively. A tight supply-demand balance allowed G12 ones to secure higher premiums per watt. For n-type wafers, trading prices declined slowly despite rising demand from cell manufacturers, reaching RMB 2.2/piece for M10 wafers and RMB 3.25/piece for G12 wafers.

The price outlook remained pessimistic. Further price declines are likely, given the continually increasing monthly output. As demand gradually shrank towards the year-end, wafer manufacturers will adjust production plans to keep prices in check. The market looks forward to actual outputs of wafers and cells in January next year.
 

Cell

Trading prices for p-type M10 cells stabilized recently, but actual trading prices shown slight declines, reaching the low-price range of RMB 0.36-0.37/W. Trading prices for G12 cells dropped to RMB 0.37-0.38/W, rapidly narrowing the price gap with M10 ones.

For n-type M10 cells, mainstream prices stabilized at RMB 0.47/W as order intake decreased towards the year-end. Yet, the low-price range reached RMB 0.46/W purportedly. As a result, the price difference between TOPCon and PERC cells widened to RMB 0.1-0.11/W. G12 HJT cells, mostly for in-house use and less for external sales, saw prices come in at RMB 0.65-0.7/W for high-efficiency ones.

The production of cells of all formats is currently in a loss-making situation, casting a gloomy atmosphere over the sector. Many manufacturers extended production cuts. Despite the recent phase-out of PERC and the ramp-up of TOPCon production capacity, manufacturers not only scaled up production cuts for PERC cells but also planned to reduce G12 cell production and slow down the ramp-up of TOPCon capacity. In the face of a relative downturn amidst oversupply and continuous price declines across the supply chain, companies need to strategize to survive the industry cycle and get rid of outdated production lines.
 

Module

Module price declines tapered off temporarily. Considering the order intake situation, some manufacturers revised production plans for January and February 2024 downward. Still, actual reductions are subject to other variables. Some manufacturers plan to bring foreword shipments to Europe. However, this move is not driven by demand, which remains uncertain for 1Q24. Overall, module prices will keep declining, reaching RMB 0.85-0.92/W by 1Q24.

Due to cost pressure, module price declines slowed down this week. Overall, prices were little changed, but the low-price range fell to RMB 0.86-0.88/W. For monofacial modules based on 210mm PERC cells for ground-mounted projects, prices also decreased, approaching 182mm ones as orders conclude.

TOPCon module prices ranged from RMB 0.9/W to RMB 1.1/W. Previous orders were delivered at RMB 0.98-1.05/W this week. In non-China markets, prices come in at USD 0.125-0.135/W. Negotiations for next year's orders have seen price quotes of RMB 0.9/W, even RMB 0.88/W.

Due to cost factors and an undetermined market, HJT prices remain stagnant. So far, prices sit at RMB 1.2-1.28/W in China, while overseas order prices hover at USD 0.160-0.170/W.