| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | January 10, 2024 |
Polysilicon
The polysilicon sector experienced a lively week, with buyers and sellers sealing orders actively at the same price level as last week. For high-quality polysilicon for n-type ingot production, prices remained at RMB 65-68/kg, varying with the purity of polysilicon. For granular polysilicon, prices stay at RMB 56-60/kg.
In the first quarter of 2024, the annual polysilicon capacity will increase by around 98,000 MT annually. Leading manufacturers will account for only 20% of the addition, while their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers, including new entrants, contribute to the rest. Manufacturers ramp up new capacities at different paces and of varied quality. In the first quarter of 2024, the growth may be minimal.
Wafer
Planned wafer production dropped to 58 GW in January, an 8% month-on-month decrease, due to substantial cell production cuts and sluggish demand before the Lunar New Year holiday. The fast-growing n-type ingot production now accounts for 70% of the total production in January. Many manufacturers plan to dedicate all production capacity to n-type ingots in response to cell technology iterations.
Trading prices continued descending slowly this week, coming in at RMB 2.8-3/piece for p-type G12 wafers while remaining at RMB 2/piece for M10 ones. For n-type wafers, trading prices declined slowly to RMB 2.05/piece for M10 wafers while holding steady at RMB 3.2/piece for G12 ones.
Due to recent cell technology iterations, the supply and demand for n-type and p-type wafers have been changing consistently. The Manufacturers reduce the production of p-type 182mm wafers drastically. Some terminate the production, leading to a shortage of p-type 182 wafers, underpinning prices. As a result, traders began stockpiling. Future price trends will vary among wafers of different formats.
Cell
After a 20-week price decline and a two-month loss, PERC cell prices bottomed out this week after extensive production cuts and shutdowns.
As expected last week, trading prices for p-type cells rose by RMB 0.01/W, coming in at RMB 0.37-0.38/W for both M10 and G12 cells. The two prices sat at the same level for two consecutive weeks.
This week, mainstream trading prices for n-type M10 cells were relatively stable. The severe divergence in efficiency resulted in price disparity. For high-efficiency n-type cells with an efficiency above 24.5%, the average price stabilized at RMB 0.47/W. The price gap between TOPCon and PERC cells reached RMB 0.1/W. G12 HJT cells, primarily for in-house use and less for external sales, saw prices come in at RMB 0.6/W for high-efficiency ones.
Purchases remained slack this week. Given sluggish demand and low module production planned, most leading vertical integrators prioritize ensuring the operation of in-house cell production lines, causing a contraction in external purchases. Additionally, some buyers adopt a wait-and-see approach as the new laser process for n-type allows further efficiency improvement.
The rebound this week was a glimmer of hope for manufacturers, who have been struggling to profit at the current price level. Considering the industry's low inventory levels and production reduction plans, prices will likely show a slow upward trend. Yet, the actual price trend depends on the receptivity of module makers.
Module
Module prices rose due to a short-term supply-demand mismatch in the midstream. Some module makers considered price hikes, but with limited orders, few new orders have been delivered this week. The anticipated downward trend in order prices has yet to be steady.
This week, module prices fell with manufacturers' pricing adjustments. Averaging prices dropped to RMB 0.9/W for PERC modules and reached below the RMB 1/W threshold for TOPCon ones.
Module makers have taken fewer orders recently, focusing on delivering orders for utility-scale projects. Delivery prices for PERC and TOPCon modules dropped below RMB 0.8/W and RMB 0.9/W, respectively, with low-price range reaching RMB 0.7/W and RMB 0.85/W.
Due to cost factors and an undetermined market, HJT prices remain stagnant. So far, prices sit at RMB 1.2-1.25/W in China, while overseas order prices hover at USD 0.150-0.165/W.