PERC cell prices sustained while module orders are few

Polysilicon

Recently, upstream sectors have been relatively calm, with polysilicon deliveries ongoing at similar prices. Despite the tight spot supply of high-quality polysilicon that meets the requirements for n-type ingot production, there were subtle changes in the expectations of both buyers and sellers for new orders.

Due to the characteristics of phased order deliveries, speculations emerged about price fluctuations or even minor rebounds. However, considering the overall market status and the indirect impact of end-user demand in each sector, the actual price range in February still depends on the outcome of buyer-seller negotiations.
 

Wafer

Trading prices held steady this week, staying at RMB 2/piece and RMB 2.8/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers, respectively. For n-type wafers, trading prices declined slowly to RMB 2.05/piece for M10 wafers while remaining at RMB 3.2/piece for G12 ones.

Due to recent cell technology iterations, the supply and demand for n-type and p-type wafers have been changing consistently. Manufacturers reduce the production of p-type 182mm wafers drastically. Some terminate production, leading to a shortage of p-type 182mm wafers, with prices hovering at RMB 2/piece and unlikely to reach lower. Future price trends will vary among p-type and n-type, with the latter narrowing its price gap with the former.
 

Cell

The supply of high-efficiency PERC cells seemed tight as the number of PERC cell manufacturers decreased sharply. With an oligopolistic advantage in efficiency, leading manufacturers attempted to raise prices.

As expected last week, trading prices for p-type cells rose by RMB 0.01/W, coming in at RMB 0.37-0.39/W and RMB 0.37-0.38/W for M10 and G12 cells, respectively. The two prices sat at the same level for three consecutive weeks.

This week, mainstream trading prices for n-type M10 cells were relatively stable. The severe divergence in efficiency resulted in price disparity. For high-efficiency n-type cells with an efficiency above 24.5%, the average price stabilized at RMB 0.47/W. The price gap between TOPCon and PERC cells reached RMB 0.09-0.1/W. G12 HJT cells, primarily for in-house use and less for external sales, saw prices come in at RMB 0.6/W for high-efficiency ones.

To manufacturers struggling to profit at the current price level, the rebound these two weeks was a glimmer of hope for PERC cell prices to stop dropping. Considering the supply-demand mismatch, prices will likely show a slow upward trend. Yet, the actual price trend depends on the affordability of module makers.
 

Module

As the cost and orders decreased, average prices for PERC modules stabilized at RMB 0.88-0.9/W this week. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules narrowed to RMB 0.05-0.08/W due to the delivery of new orders of the latter, for which prices came in at RMB 0.95-0.98/W, with downward momentum for mainstream prices in the future.

Module makers have taken fewer orders recently, focusing on delivering orders for utility-scale projects. Delivery prices for PERC and TOPCon modules dropped below RMB 0.8/W and RMB 0.9/W, respectively, with the low-price range reaching RMB 0.7/W and RMB 0.85/W.

Subject to lofty production costs, an undetermined market, and higher delivery prices for previous orders than new ones, HJT module prices came in at RMB 1.15-1.25/W in China and lingering at USD 0.150-0.170/W in non-China markets.

The Red Sea crisis sent Asia-Europe freight rates skyrocketing to around EUR 0.011-0.015/W. This week, FOB prices in Europe were close to last week's levels, thus remaining unchanged in the spot price update. Meanwhile, CIF, DDP, and DAP prices rose due to higher freight rates. Considering risk factors, European buyers mostly placed DDP and DAP orders. In 2024, TOPCon modules will account for the major portion of deliveries to Europe, with FOB prices around EUR 0.105-0.11/W. In distributed channels, module makers deliver TOPCon modules at EUR 0.115-0.125/W (FOB), with a EUR 0.005-0.01/W price gap with PERC ones, while black-backsheet modules enjoy a premium of  EUR 0.01-0.02/W.