N-type wafer prices on slow decline, module poised for price hikes on demand recovery

Polysilicon

Given utilization rates increasing for four consecutive months and market demand, polysilicon prices ended the upward trend but with no declines.

Demand dominates recent market movements. Material with lower prices and less accepted for n-type ingot production has broadened its usage with improved cost-effectiveness and quality, indicating flexible adjustment and adaptation of ingot manufacturers, given current polysilicon prices and their recent earnings.

Polysilicon inventory experienced a month-on-month increase within reasonable ranges. A more pronounced inventory problem will gradually emerge in the second quarter.
 

Wafer

Wafer manufacturers sustain high production plans for March, with monthly output reaching 69 GW, a 19% month-on-month increase. In March, n-type wafer production will likely reach 52-53 GW, translating to a 76% penetration rate. With the inventory level exceeding 2.5 billion pieces amid continuous accumulation, n-type wafer prices declined this week.

P-type and n-type wafer price trends parted this week, with p-type M10 and G12 wafer prices stabilizing at RMB 2.05/piece and RMB 2.75-2.8/piece, respectively, while n-type wafer prices dropped as expected last month by 1-3%, reaching RMB 1.95-1.98/piece for M10 and RMB 3.05-3.08/piece for G12.

Recently, manufacturers are gradually transiting from large-chamfer to small-chamfer processing, incuding 191.6mm and 210R series. Still, large-chamfer wafers account for a greater portion of the inventory. However, most manufacturers are hesitant amid gloomy industry outlook, starting with near-rectangur wafer production, which does not require additional equipment.
 

Cell

With end-user demand recovering, cell production output will rise significantly by 32% MoM to 62 GW in March.

In March, n-type cell production output will reach 39-41 GW, with the penetration rate slightly increasing to 65%.

For p-type cells, trading prices remained at RMB 0.38-0.40/W for M10 and RMB 0.37-0.39/W for G12 cells this week.

Prices for n-type M10 cells were relatively stable, averaging RMB 0.46-0.47/W and reaching RMB 0.48-0.49/W for ultra-high-efficiency ones. The price gap between TOPCon and PERC cells stabilized at RMB 0.08-0.09/W. G12 HJT high-efficiency cells saw prices coming in at RMB 0.6-0.7/W.

Recently, cell manufacturers attempted to offer higher price quotes at RMB 0.4/W for 182mm PERC cells and RMB 0.48-0.49/W for n-type ones, which failed to become the mainstream trading prices.
 

Module

Anticipating a demand rebound in March and April, module makers started producing in advance in March, raising production plans to 55 GW, a substantial 50% increase from February. The increase was largely attributed to leading module makers. In the second quarter, shipment target-to-order volume ratio of Tier-1 module makers will improve to 60-80% as  utility-scale ground-mounted projects in China initiate installation and Europe replenishes inventory.

Manufacturers wished to raise prices by RMB 0.02-0.04/W for PERC modules and RMB 0.01-0.02/W for TOPCon ones, but end users did not seem to give in. Overall, module prices will hold steady in March, with the low-price range slightly picking up.

Despite increases in the MSRPs of Tier-1 module makers in the second quarter, actual price hikes are not likely, given slow demand recovery and rising wafer inventory that may amplify the cautious attitude among end users. Recently receiving orders at mid-to-low level prices, module makers are still negotiating with end users.