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| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | March 27, 2024 |
Cell: TOPCon cell efficiency for spot price report will be adjusted to 24.7%+.
Module:
1. Stop reporting for monofacial glass-backsheet PERC modules
2. Prices for Chinese project will be prices for TOPCon modules instead of PERC
3. Non-China module price (by region): Stop reporting PERC module prices for projects in Australia and Europe, only report for India-made PERC modules and PERC modules for projects in the U.S. 4. Addition: TOPCon module prices for projects in the U.S., Europe, and India
Polysilicon
The first quarter comes to an end, with lackluster polysilicon trade remaining since mid-March. While production sustains steady increases, buyers show little interest in purchasing and negotiating. Some ingot manufacturers are still taking deliveries of previous orders, while some control purchase volumes and inventory levels in response to declining wafer prices and weakening profitability.
As of this Wednesday, market transactions are slow. Buyers and sellers, including leading manufacturers, seemed indifferent, cautiously biding their time. For polysilicon chunk, price quotes of Tier-1 manufacturers have yet to show significant declines, but Tier-2 and Tier-3, including new entrants, offered quotes much lower. Prices of granular polysilicon decreased. For non-China polysilicon, average prices held steady, while the high-price range slightly dropped. Currently, price declines erode the margins manufacturers managed to keep before, posing a serious challenge to their overall cost levels and profitability.
Polysilicon inventory experienced a month-on-month increase. A more pronounced inventory problem will gradually emerge in the second quarter.
Wafer
Notice: The average price for n-type M10 wafers this week is based on 256mm-diagonal. High and low prices in RMB and dollar terms are based on trading prices of all formats.
Notably, n-type 182mm wafers recently saw severely diverged price trends among specifications. With demand continuing to shrink, prices for 247mm- diagonal wafers plummeted to RMB 1.6-1.7/piece, down by 5-12%, a RMB 0.1/piece drop. Accordingly, prices for 256mm-diagonal wafers fell to RMB 1.7-1.75/piece.
Trading prices for wafers of all formats continued decreasing this week, reaching RMB 1.7-1.9/piece and RMB 2.3-2.5/piece for p-type M10 and G12 wafers; RMB 1.65-1.75/piece and RMB 2.6-2.7/piece for n-type M10 and G12 ones, respectively. Each format saw a decline of 3-9%. Manufacturers have been purchasing n-type G12R wafers in small bulks, with prices sitting at RMB 2.3/piece.
This week, manufacturers begin planning for production cuts. However, considering the time required for adjusting wafer production plans and inventory depletion, the reductions will have little impact on the amount of wafers available on the market until mid to late April. With current production plans, short-term wafer prices will likely see continuous declines.
Cell
Cell production held steady this week. However, prices began to lose ground as wafer prices plummeted.
TOPCon cell inventory efficiency improved significantly due to the introduction of LECO, averaging 24.7% and beyond. InfoLink will adjust publicized efficiency in April.
Trading prices this week slightly dropped to RMB 0.37-0.38/W for p-type M10 cells, RMB 0.36-0.37/W for p-type G12 cells, and RMB 0.39-0.4/W for non-China buyers.
N-type M10 cells saw average prices fall marginally to RMB 0.45-0.46/W, while high-efficiency ones sustained premiums. The price gap between M10 TOPCon and PERC cells stabilized at RMB 0.09-0.10/W. G12 HJT high-efficiency cells saw prices coming in at RMB 0.6-0.7/W.Despite recent wafer price collapse leading to a recovery in cell makers' profitability, module makers reduced their margins via dual distribution and OEM manufacturing. Currently, the cost of OEM cells is RMB 1.8-1.9/piece.
Module
Module prices have been flat. The gap remained wide between the high and the low-price range due to price adjustments before and after deliveries. Currently, prices sit at RMB 0.8-0.95/W for 182mm PERC glass-glass modules and RMB 0.85-1/W for TOPCon ones. The price gap between centralized and distributed generation projects was evident, with the former coming in at RMB 0.86-0.93/W (excluding prices not being delivered at the moment) and the latter RMB 0.93-0.95/W. For centralized generation projects, some previous orders were still delivered at RMB 1/W this week. For distributed ones, there were some orders at the low-price range. As for HJT modules, prices sit at RMB 1.03-1.2/W in China and slightly moved to USD 0.13-0.15/W in non-China markets due to deliveries of some new orders.
The module sector will remain pressured in April. Despite price declines in the midstream, module makers will raise prices and regulate deliveries to control prices, given factors including rising production plans in March and April and higher costs of encapsulants and glass. Encapsulant prices rose by RMB 0.4/m2, and glass prices increased by RMB 0.5-1/m2, even RMB 2/m2, as some suppliers proposed. However, actual price hikes are unlikely as end users stood firmly as they did in the previous week, and module makers themselves showed inconsistent strategies. Prices for deliveries to some centralized generation projects in April picked up slightly but only by RMB 0.02-0.03/W and limited to those lower than RMB 0.85/W.