Prices reach bottom, hinging on June production plans

Polysilicon

Things were still complicated for polysilicon manufacturers as prices reached below cash cost levels after the weeks-long decline. More and more of them began maintenance and production reduction to manage shipping volumes and inventory levels in the second half of this month. Overall, price declines seemed to lose momentum this week.

For China-made polysilicon chunks, prices mostly remained at RMB 37-42/kg, while the average price slightly decreased by 1.2% to RMB 40.5/kg due to price changes from last Thursday to this Wednesday. For China-made granular polysilicon, prices mostly stayed at RMB 36.5-37/kg, with the average price remaining unchanged at RMB 37/kg.  

In non-China markets, polysilicon price trend was stable. In Southeast Asia, manufacturers cut utilization rates due to policy uncertainties, which led to decreased demand and buyers expecting further declines. Price trend in non-China markets requires further observation. 

As of the end of May, polysilicon inventory level will increase to 280,000-300,000 MT. If Tier-1 manufacturers begin maintenance and production reduction as soon as possible in June, the sector can keep inventory level in check.
 

Wafer

Fierce competition continued as manufacturers contended for market shares. Meanwhile, cell makers began stockpiling wafers at currently low prices.

P-type wafer prices remained at RMB 1.2-1.3/piece for M10 wafers and RMB 1.8/piece for  G12 ones. For n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.1/piece, RMB 1.7-1.8/piece, and RMB 1.45-1.5/piece for M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.

Severe wafer oversupply and continuously declining prices pushed manufacturers into the red. Recently, manufacturers have been planning production reductions. Yet, if one manufacturer offers lower price quotes, others may follow suit, undermining the effectiveness of the reductions.

Cell

Cell prices in dollar terms recently saw rapid declines following price collapses in China. As a result, cells exported to non-China markets, mainly India and Turkey, have lost the premiums.

Cell prices continued to decrease this week, reaching RMB 0.31/W for both p-type M10 and G12 cells. Given declines in wafer prices, prices kept falling to RMB 0.30/W for M10 TOPCon cells, RMB 0.33-0.35/W for G12R TOPCon cells, and RMB 0.45-0.55/W for G12 HJT high-efficiency cells.

With fewer order volumes in late May, some vertically integrated module makers started reducing cell purchases, leading to higher cell inventory level. Therefore, module production plans in June will be noteworthy.
 

Module

Projects to be initiated in June still sit on the fence as module prices hit rock bottom in late May. Besides China, non-China markets, including Europe, saw sluggish demand, with module inventory rising. Industry surveys of InfoLink found Tier-1 manufacturers maintaining production in May, but utilization rates in non-China markets declined due to policy changes.

TOPCon module prices came in at RMB 0.88-0.90/W this week. Prices for projects are moving toward below RMB 0.9/W. Spot prices this week declined along with cell prices, with a significant large price gap, ranging from RMB 0.83/W to RMB 0.93/W. Manufacturers are grabbing orders by cutting prices recently, resulting in a rapid price decline in low-efficiency products, with prices ranging from RMB 0.74 to RMB 0.78/W. However, the low-range price this week does not reflect such prices as these projects are not of regular efficiency.

Regarding other formats, prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.78-0.88/W. As China saw reduced projects, prices started shifting to RMB 0.8-0.83/W. Prices for low-efficiency products fell rapidly, sitting at RMB 0.71-0.75/W. Yet, as these projects are not of regular efficiency and the order model rules out spot price reference, the low-price range this week does not reflect such prices. HJT modules, on the other hand, saw few projects being delivered recently. Prices hovered at RMB 0.97-1.18/W, with the average price approaching RMB 1.1/W and RMB 1/W, whilst the low-price range reached below RMB 1/W.

In overseas markets, PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.1-0.105/W.

TOPCon modules saw notable regional price divergence. Some are delivered at EUR 0.10-0.13/W in Europe and USD 0.12-0.13/W in Australia. However, the market prices stood at USD 0.10-0/12/W in Brazil and the Middle East. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.105-0.115/W and even declined to USD 0.09/W as some manufacturers cut prices to grab orders.

For HJT, prices stayed at USD 0.13-0.15/W for now.

Order volumes declined in the second quarter in the U.S., with market prices becoming more diverse recently. PERC modules for ground-mounted projects are delivered at USD 0.22-0.35/W, while TOPCon modules are at USD 0.23-0.36/W in DDP terms. Local manufacturers delivered modules for distributed generation projects at around USD 0.2-0.25/W in DDP terms.