Demand remains sluggish in June as market awaits post-SNEC movements

Polysilicon

Price declines slowed down this week. For China-made polysilicon chunks, mainstream prices stabilized at RMB 37-42/kg, while the average price slipped by 1.2% to RMB 40/kg. For China-made granular polysilicon, mainstream prices and the average price remained at RMB 36-37/kg and RMB 37/kg, respectively.

For non-China polysilicon, prices sat at RMB 18-23.5/kg this week, with the average price at RMB 21.5/kg. The impact of the recent petition for AD/CVD investigations on cell and module imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam is to be reckoned with despite yet-to-be-confirmed tariff details. Having experienced little change before, polysilicon prices in dollar terms are likely to decrease.

Production capacity saw changes this month, with polysilicon planned at 75-76 GW, a 7-9% month-on-month decrease. With spot prices dropping for weeks, even below the industry's cash cost level, more and more manufacturers started cutting production or bringing forward maintenance to restrict inventories under profitability and survival concerns.

However, as previously mentioned, leading companies are set to commission new utility-scale production capacity in the mid-to-late second quarter; thus, operational and marketing strategies must be considered. Overall, production capacity will likely see a 7-9% month-on-month decrease amid the combined gaining-and-losing effect of the supply side this month. Although polysilicon will hardly see inventory depletion in the short term, the supply will likely continue to plunge in July.
 

Wafer

In May, manufacturers started planning production cuts at the month’s end as they faced severe losses amid wafer price collapse. The reductions have yet to affect actual output, which came in at 63-64 GW, only 2-3 GW lower than previous estimation.

P-type wafer prices remained at RMB 1.2-1.25/piece for M10 wafers and RMB 1.7-1.8/piece for G12 ones. For n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.1/piece, RMB 1.7-1.8/piece, and RMB 1.45/piece for M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.

Production plans will change drastically in June. try surveys as of early this month show a monthly production of 51-52 GW, a nearly 20% MoM decrease as all manufacturers reduce production, except some professional manufacturers. Market penetration of n-type products lost momentum during January and May but will increase significantly to 80% in June, a month-on-month increase of 5 percentage points.

Cell

Cell production output reached 64-65 GW in May, 3-4 GW lower than previous forecast.

Given production plans of module makers, vertically integrated cell manufacturers cut production markedly In June. Meanwhile, professional cell makers maintain line operations and keep bringing capacities online. The monthly cell production output will reach 56-57 GW, an month-on-month decrease of nearly 10%.

Cell prices were still unchanged this week, sitting at RMB 0.31/W for p-type M10 and G12 cells. Given declines in wafer prices, prices kept falling to RMB 0.3/W for M10 TOPCon cells. For G12 HJT high-efficiency cells and G12R TOPCon cells, prices came in at RMB 0.45-0.55/W and RMB 0.33-0.34/W, respectively.
 

Module

Manufacturers expected centralized projects to drive demand and stabilize utilization rates from May to June. However, price fluctuations across the supply chain caused end users to hesitate again.

Delays in some centralized generation projects resulted in limited growth of demand. In the distributed sector, residential projects slow down purchases as they await confirmation of the feed-in policy for distributed generated power. Therefore, module makers suspended deliveries. The policy may affect the profitability of C&I projects as well. Due to market fluctuations, planned production in June will decrease.

The market saw few deliveries amid the cautious sentiment this week. As a result, prices stabilized, sitting at RMB 0.88-0.9/W for TOPCon modules and will keep approaching below RMB 0.9/W. Manufacturers are grabbing orders by cutting prices recently, resulting in a rapid price decline in low-efficiency products, with prices ranging from RMB 0.74-0.78/W. However, the low-range price this week does not reflect such prices as these projects are not of regular efficiency.

Regarding other formats, prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.78-0.88/W. As China saw reduced projects, prices started shifting to RMB 0.8-0.83/W. Prices for low-efficiency products fell rapidly, sitting at RMB 0.71-0.75/W. Yet, as these projects are not of regular efficiency and the order model rules out spot price reference, the low-price range this week does not reflect such prices. HJT modules, on the other hand, saw few projects being delivered recently. Prices hovered at RMB 0.97-1.18/W, with the average price approaching RMB 1.1/W and RMB 1/W, whilst the low-price range reached below RMB 1/W.

In overseas markets, PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.1-0.105/W.

TOPCon modules saw notable regional price divergence. Some are delivered at EUR 0.10-0.13/W in Europe and USD 0.12-0.13/W in Australia. However, the market prices stood at USD 0.10-0/12/W in Brazil and the Middle East. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.105-0.115/W and even declined to USD 0.09/W as some manufacturers cut prices to grab orders.

For HJT, prices stayed at USD 0.13-0.15/W for now.