183mm n-type wafers attempt price hikes while market waits to see demand in July

Polysilicon

Average prices for China-made polysilicon chunk and granular polysilicon reached the bottom after the third consecutive month of plunges. For polysilicon chunk, prices mostly stabilized at RMB 37-40/kg, averaging RMB 39/kg as last week. For granular polysilicon, prices sit unchanged at RMB 36-37/kg, averaging RMB 37/kg. The price gap between polysilicon chunk and granular polysilicon narrowed to a record low of RMB 2/kg. The small price difference is likely to remain in the short term.

In July, the increase in polysilicon supply will continue to decline, even at faster paces. However, whether the wafer sector can sustain current utilization rates requires further observation, given their deteriorating profits. Accordingly, the polysilicon inventory level will remain high within this coming month.

In the third quarter, there will be more and larger-scale production cuts and shutdowns. With the cumulative production capacity and the volume of addition contradicting, a comprehensive capacity elimination will begin in the second half of this year.
 

Wafer

Wafer supply-demand dynamics reached a brief stabilization amid gradual inventory depletion. Market price trend will hold steady until the end of July as manufacturers only made little adjustments on pricing just before mid-year financial settlements. Some non-vertically integrated manufacturers raised price quotes for n-type 183mm wafers to RMB 1.15/piece, but no actual transaction has taken place as of this Wednesday.

Prices stabilized at RMB 1.25/piece for p-type M10 wafers and RMB 1.7/piece for G12, with the low-price range of M10 ones rebounding. For n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.08-1.1/piece, RMB 1.6-1.65/piece, and RMB 1.35-1.4/piece for M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.

The outcome of the wafer manufacturers' attempted price hikes hinges on the acceptance of cell makers, as well as whether leading cell manufacturers raise prices accordingly. Early July will be a crucial time. Overall, prices will not increase significantly, considering current wafer inventory levels and sluggish demand from the cell sector.

Wafer manufacturers made larger-scale transitions to n-type 210mm (210RN/210N) wafer production in June, while cell manufacturers posted slower progress. As a result, the inventory level of type 210mm wafers keeps rising, pressuring manufacturers.
 

Cell

Prices for large-size n-type 210mm cells (210RN/210N) slightly declined this week. The narrowed price gap with n-type 183mm cells made manufacturers hesitate to produce large-size cells. In the third quarter, some modified PERC lines will produce their first n-type 210mm cells, potentially boosting the supply. Still, actual development hinges on the module sector.

For p-type M10 and G12 cells, prices stayed at RMB 0.3/W. M10 TOPCon cells sustained an average price of RMB 0.3/W, but the low-price range reached below RMB 0.28/W. For G12R and G12 TOPCon cells, prices dropped to RMB 0.31/W and RMB 0.32/W, respectively. Prices for G12 HJT high-efficiency cells stabilized at RMB 0.45-0.55/W.

As the third quarter approaches, cell manufacturers focus more on module production plans and end-user demand. The market remains pessimistic despite to-be-confirmed production plans.
 

Module

In China, end users remained cautious amid the chaotic price trend. Distributors kept selling off products at lower prices, and some Tier-2 and tier-3 module makers delivered at prices below RMB 0.8/W. Overall, price drops will continue. For TOPCon modules, prices reached RMB 0.78-0.9/W this week and will keep approaching RMB 0.8-0.85/W. Manufacturers have been cutting prices to grab orders, resulting in a rapid price decline in low-efficiency products, ranging from RMB 0.74-0.78/W. Some manufacturers delivered low-efficiency products at a non-dumping price of RMB 0.78/W, listed on the weekly spot price update this week.

Regarding other formats, prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.76-0.85/W. As China saw reduced projects, prices started falling below RMB 0.8/W. There were few deliveries of HJT modules recently, with prices remaining at RMB 0.93-1.07/W, while the average price approaching RMB 1-1.05/W and will towards RMB 0.96-1/W. For utility-scale projects, prices reached below RMB 1/W.

In Europe, some centralized generation projects faced delays to 2025, for declines in traditional energy costs affect project profitability. The weakened demand led to price drops. Prices for TOPCon modules varied significantly among regions, coming in at EUR 0.09-0.125/W in Europe and USD 0.11-0.13/W in Australia. Meanwhile, prices in Brazil and the Middle East reached USD 0.085-0.12/W and USD 0.1-0.13/W, respectively. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.09-0.11/W and declined to USD 0.09/W as some manufacturers cut prices to secure orders. PERC and HJT modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W and USD 0.13-0.14/W, respectively.

In July, module makers will remain stressed as the uncertainty about order volumes could affect production plans. In Europe, purchases will decrease during the summer vacation from July to August, leaving only China and the Middle East to underpin global module demand. Prices will still be varied as pricing strategy differs among module makers. Tier-1 manufacturers insisted on prices above RMB 0.8/W, postponing deliveries or renegotiating for orders below that threshold. Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers delivered at RMB 0.78/W.