Polysilicon prices hold steady while midstream sector prices vary among formats

Polysilicon

The second half of 2024 begins as polysilicon prices ended the first half with a cessation of declines. Overall, prices stabilized. Leading manufacturers sustain prices at RMB 38-41/kg while Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers at RMB 37-40/kg. Some Tier-2 manufacturers had firmer prices. Each with different characteristics, manufacturers developed varied operation and sales strategies, with some even earning slight premiums.

For non-end-use materials, order inquiries and placement increased. Further development depends on market reaction and impact after the listing of polysilicon futures in China at the end of the year.

Polysilicon supply will keep decreasing this month. There will be more manufacturers, including leading manufacturers, expanding the scale of production cuts or maintenance, which helps price stabilization. In the short term, manufacturers can keep inventory levels in check but can hardly deplete thoroughly.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have been varied among formats recently. Manufacturers have been in talks about price hikes for 183mm n-type wafers, thanks to tight supply after previous clearance and reported quality issue caused by polysilicon supply. Some raised price quotes from RMB 1.1/piece to RMB 1.12/piece but sealed no order as of this Wednesday. For 210mm n-type rectangular (210RN) wafers, prices kept reaching downward amid sufficient supply. Manufacturers are assessing the feasibility of shifting production to wafers of smaller formats.

Prices stabilized at RMB 1.25/piece for p-type M10 wafers and RMB 1.7/piece for G12. For n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.08-1.1/piece, RMB 1.6-1.65/piece, and RMB 1.35/piece for M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.

The outcome of the wafer manufacturers' attempted price hikes hinges on the acceptance of cell makers, as well as whether leading wafer manufacturers raise prices for 183N wafers accordingly. Early July will be a crucial time. The shift to 183N wafer production will affect the success of price increases, which requires further observation next week.
 

Cell

Prices for large-size n-type 210mm cells (210RN/210N) continued to decline this week as sluggish end-user demand affected cell purchases, reaching the levels of 183N wafers. Whether this can suffice as an incentive for module makers to produce large-format products still hinges on end users.

For p-type M10 and G12 cells, prices stayed at RMB 0.29-0.3/W. M10 TOPCon cells sustained an average price of RMB 0.28-0.3/W, but the low-price range reached below RMB 0.28/W. For G12R and G12 TOPCon cells, prices dropped to RMB 0.3-0.31/W. Prices for G12 HJT high-efficiency cells stabilized at RMB 0.45-0.55/W.

Cell inventory levels held steady amid ongoing depletion in late June. Rapid price slumps for 210R and 210N cells led to production cuts or even shutdowns as manufacturers tried to mitigate losses. In July, the market remains pessimistic while focusing on module production plans of the month and end-user demand.
 

Module

Module prices were little changed in early July due to fewer deliveries. This week, prices for TOPCon modules reached RMB 0.78-0.9/W and will keep approaching RMB 0.8-0.85/W. Manufacturers have been cutting prices to grab orders, resulting in a rapid price decline in low-efficiency products, ranging from RMB 0.74-0.78/W. Some manufacturers delivered low-efficiency products at a non-dumping price of RMB 0.78/W.

Regarding other formats, prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.76-0.85/W. As China saw reduced projects, prices fell below RMB 0.8/W. There were few deliveries of HJT modules recently, with prices remaining at RMB 0.93-1.07/W, while the average price approaching RMB 1-1.05/W and will towards RMB 0.96-1/W. For utility-scale projects, prices reached below RMB 1/W.

Prices for project tenders continued to decrease, with Tier-1 module makers displaying inconsistent bidding strategies. Most want to sustain prices at RMB 0.8/W, while some gave in to lower prices.

In non-China markets, module prices stabilized this week. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, coming in at EUR 0.09-0.125/W in Europe and USD 0.11-0.13/W in Australia. Meanwhile, prices in Brazil and the Middle East reached USD 0.085-0.12/W and USD 0.1-0.13/W, respectively. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.09-0.11/W. PERC and HJT modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W and USD 0.13-0.14/W, respectively.

Module makers will remain stressed in July as the uncertainty about order volumes could affect production plans. Preliminary statistics show 40-45 GW of planned module production in China this month, given that purchases in Europe will decrease during the summer vacation from July to August, leaving only China and the Middle East to underpin global module demand. Actual production requires further observation after the announcement of tender results.