Rising 183mm n-type wafer prices put pressure on falling cell prices

Polysilicon

Utilization rates will likely remain low amid the sluggish market in the third quarter. In July, monthly polysilicon supply may reach 64-65 GW, a faster 13-15% month-on-month decrease primarily due to larger-scale production cuts among the top five manufacturers, with Tier-2, Tier-3, and new entrants also reducing production output or conducting maintenance. Accounting for a large portion of the total production, leading companies wield great influence over the market. Their production cuts will be an unneglectable factor in the third quarter, although the scale has yet to be confirmed. In non-China markets, manufacturers maintained steady utilization rates, but more maintenance and production cuts are still likely.

Polysilicon prices will remain at the bottom in Q3. In the short term, prices of leading manufacturers (the mainstream price range) will stabilize at RMB 37-41/kg for leading manufacturers, while prices of Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers, including new entrants, stretch slightly wider. Having a wider price range. The lower price limit has narrowed, further decline is unlikely. Manufacturers set more requirements for buyers placing orders in the low-price range, making it harder to purchase cheap polysilicon in bulk. For China-made granular polysilicon, prices will sustain at RMB 35-37/kg, with the momentum for further declines diminishing.

Inventory levels declined slowly this week largely due to production cuts and active depletion since June, for demand has been  flat recently.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have recently varied among formats. Manufacturers have been discussing price hikes for 182mm and 183mm n-type wafers, thanks to tight supply after previous sell-offs resulting in rapid inventory depletion. Additionally, breaking down by specific specifications reveals that some specifications have limited inventory and are relatively scarce. Some raised price quotes from RMB 1.1/piece to RMB 1.12/piece. For 210mm n-type rectangular (210RN) wafers, prices kept reaching downward amid sufficient supply. Manufacturers are assessing the feasibility of shifting production to wafers of smaller formats.

Prices stabilized at RMB 1.25/piece for p-type M10 wafers and RMB 1.7/piece for G12. For n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.1/piece, RMB 1.6-1.65/piece, and RMB 1.35/piece for M10, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.

For 183mm n-type wafers, few accepted the increased price quotes this week. Additionally, as cell prices keep falling, cell manufacturers can hardly give in to higher wafer prices. However, future price hikes are still likely, given varying demand and conversations between suppliers and clients.
 

Cell

As of early July, some cell manufacturers have yet to confirm production plans. Most of them will wait and see the market condition to decide on production plans for large-format cells (n-type 210mm or n-type 210mm rectangular). As prices for large-format products plunged, a few manufacturers suspended production to sell off inventories in advance. Overall, planned cell production will remain at 56-57 GW in July, showing a stark contrast with the module sector. Manufacturers are still likely to adjust production plans in accordance with market conditions in mid-July.

Prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells stayed at RMB 0.29-0.3/W this week, while n-type 183mm ones were still decreasing. M10 TOPCon cells sustained an average price of RMB 0.28-0.29/W, but the low-price range reached below RMB 0.28/W. For G12R and G12 TOPCon cells, prices dropped to RMB 0.29-0.3/W. 

Cell inventory levels held steady amid ongoing depletion in late June. Rapid price slumps for 210R and 210N cells led to production cuts or even shutdowns as manufacturers tried to mitigate losses. Many also reported that unceasing price drops of M10 TOPCon cells affected manufacturers’ willingness to produce and will lead to extended production cuts, threatening business operations if they do not stabilize in the future.
 

Module

This week, prices for TOPCon modules reached RMB 0.76-0.9/W and will keep approaching RMB 0.82-0.84/W in accordance with prices for generation projects. For some centralized generation projects, prices dropped to RMB 0.76-0.8/W, making it difficult to fulfill some orders as contracted. Tier-1 module makers still want to sustain prices at RMB 0.8/W, while their Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers took orders at RMB 0.78/W or even RMB 0.76-0.77/W on the spot market. Manufacturers have been cutting prices to grab orders, leading to rapid price declines in low-efficiency products. Overall, module prices kept decreasing.

Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules stood at RMB 0.72-0.85/W. As China saw fewer projects, prices fell below RMB 0.8/W. There were few deliveries of HJT modules recently, with prices landing at RMB 0.93-1.05/W, while average prices are approaching RMB 1/W and will approachRMB 0.96-1/W. For utility-scale projects, prices reached below RMB 1/W. For HJT low-efficiency modules, prices reached RMB 0.85-0.88/W. These transactions are of modules of non-mainstream efficiency, thus not included in the spot price updates.

In non-China markets, prices were gradually decreasing for orders in July. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.105/W in Asia-Pacific, EUR 0.085-0.115/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.13/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.12/W in Brazil, and slipping to USD 0.09-0.12/W in the Middle East. Average prices for utility-scale projects were nearly USD 0.1/W. In Latin America, prices came in at USD 0.09-0.11/W. PERC and HJT modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W and USD 0.12-0.14/W, respectively.

In the second half of 2024, module prices still have little possibility of a rebound, even decreasing slightly in July and August, given weakening demand, manufacturers’ attempt to grab orders, especially Tier-2 and Tier-3 module makers, who will offer lower price quotes by controlling material cost. Still, the decrease will be limited and will not reach below the break-even point.