Polysilicon low-price range narrows; 210N, 210RN wafer, cell prices lose ground

Polysilicon

Price drops showed a stronger sign of cessation. In July, the market saw positive changes in contract signing, execution, and fulfillment. Although the utilization rate in the ingot sector decreased, affecting material usage, purchasing for inelastic demand has improved. Many users purchase more than needed, indicating confidence in stable prices.

Prices this week came in at RMB 36.5-41/kg. China-made polysilicon had little changes, with low-range prices slightly recovering from RMB 36/kg to RMB 36-37/kg. Whether this will affect the average trading prices in August and September remains uncertain. China-made granular polysilicon prices stay at RMB 35-36/kg, while non-Chinese polysilicon remains at USD 18-23.5/kg. With increased Chinese exports and potential demand fluctuations in non-China markets in the third quarter, non-Chinese polysilicon prices may decline.

Inventory level has been falling as the end of July, as the ingot sector purchases more than needed amid production cuts and bottom-low process. Polysilicon manufacturers will see inventory pressures reduce due to significant production reduction in July but inventory pressure will persist in the second half of this year.
 

Wafer

Demand for 210N and 210RN wafers has weakened, causing prices to decline further. For 210RN wafers, some leading manufacturers are shifting from 182*210mm to 182.2*210mm to increase module efficiency, causing an oversupply of the 182*210mm wafers and uncertainty of the supply and demand of various specifications.

For M10 and G12 p-type wafers, prices came in at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. For M10, G12, and G12R rectangular n-type wafers, prices reached RMB 1.1/piece, RMB 1.55/piece, and RMB 1.25/piece, respectively. Trading prices for 210N and 210RN wafers are expected to drop to RMB 1.5/piece and RMB 1.2/piece in August.

Wafer prices will be influenced by polysilicon prices. If polysilicon prices rise, wafer prices will follow. Additionally, subtle changes in the supply and demand for specific wafer sizes will impact price stability.
 

Cell

Given that the LECO technology became essential for TOPCon cell production in the first half of the year, cell makers have been upgrading production lines via enhancing efficiency, with the current mass production efficiency reaching 24.9% or above 25%. InfoLink will adjust publicized efficiency starting in August.

Trading prices mostly came in at RMB 0.29/W this week, with p-type M10 and G12, M10 TOPCon, and G12R cell prices staying at RMB 0.28-0.29/W, and G12 TOPCon cells sustained at RMB 0.29-0.3/W. For 210mm n-type rectangular (210RN) cells, sluggish demand reduced production willingness, similar to wafers.

Cell prices stabilized this week. Production stress was relieved as cell makers were affected by module price declines and recent rebounds in the silver spot rate. However, cell makers can hardly keep prices at RMB 0.29-0.3/W amid persistent -10%-below gross margin.
 

Module

Module prices stabilized this week. Module makers have recently attempted to raise prices by RMB 0.02-0.03/W but failed due to limited end-user affordability. Utility-scale projects in China will boost demand in August, while non-China markets see steady demand. Still, the key lies in demand, which shows no sign of significant recovery. With price wars and cheap, low-efficiency products disrupting the market, module prices are not likely to rebound but will stabilize for now.

This week, TOPCon module prices reached RMB 0.76-0.8/W for ground-mounted projects and RMB 0.78-0.85/W for distributed generation ones. Overall, the average price was RMB 0.8-0.83/W. Tier-1 module makers sustained prices at RMB 0.78-0.8/W, while the rest offered lower price quotes due to lower order volumes.

Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.72-0.85/W. Prices for projects in China began to fall below RMB 0.8/W as the number of projects decreased. For HJT modules, prices came in at RMB 0.85-1/W, with the average price approaching RMB 0.95/W and below RMB 1/W for utility-scale projects.

In non-China markets, prices for HJT modules dropped to USD 0.12-0.13/W. PERC modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.105/W in Asia-Pacific, EUR 0.085-0.115/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.13/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.12/W in Brazil, and USD 0.09-0.12/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approached below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America.