| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | August 07, 2024 |
Polysilicon
Market attention on polysilicon prices has resurged recently. Low trading prices for polysilicon have rebounded over the past few weeks, with the mainstream low-price range rising from RMB 36/kg to RMB 36-37/kg. As of early August, the overall price quote has recovered from RMB 36-39/kg to RMB 37-42/kg. Against the backdrop of losses among all-tier manufacturers for four consecutive months, prices have bottomed out last week, leading to changes to the current low-price range and overall price quotes.
Prices recovery is correlated with the continued losses of manufacturers’ cash costs. Larger-scale maintenance and production cuts in the third quarter are also key factors. The top three manufacturers have been cutting production increasingly since August, leaving a gloomy market. However, whether average prices, the key indicator, can rebound after bottoming out requires further observations.
Inventory level has been falling as the ingot sector purchases more than needed amid production cuts and bottom-low process. Polysilicon manufacturers will see reduced inventory pressure due to significant production reductions in July, but inventory pressure will persist in the second half of this year.
Wafer
Given sluggish demand for 210N and 210RN wafers, prices further declined, with some manufacturers quoting 183N at RMB 1.08/piece, but few buyers accepted.
Prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers stayed at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. For n-type M10, G12, and G12R wafers, prices reached RMB 1.08-1.1/piece, RMB 1.55/piece, and RMB 1.23-1.25/piece, respectively. Trading prices for 210N and 210RN wafers fell to RMB 1.5-1.55/piece and RMB 1.23/piece, respectively; RMB 1.2/piece will be likely in August.
Wafer price trend is subject to polysilicon supply and demand in August. If the trading prices of polysilicon pick up, wafer prices will follow suit. Even subtle changes in supply-demand dynamics for specific formats will impact price stability. Moreover, leading manufacturers' recent announcements for leadership changes have drawn market attention to their new production and sales strategies. Further production cuts will be likely.
Cell
Given that the LECO technology became essential for TOPCon cell production in the first half of the year, cell makers have been upgrading production lines via enhancing efficiency, with the current mass production efficiency reaching 24.9% or above 25%. InfoLink will adjust publicized efficiency starting in August.
This week, trading prices mostly came in at RMB 0.29/W this week, with p-type M10 and G12, M10 TOPCon, and G12R cell prices staying at RMB 0.28-0.29/W, and G12 TOPCon cells sustained at RMB 0.29-0.3/W. For 210mm n-type rectangular (210RN) cells, sluggish demand reduced production willingness, similar to wafers.
Cell prices stabilized this week. Production stress was relieved as cell makers were affected by module price declines and recent rebounds in the silver spot rate. However, cell makers can hardly keep prices at RMB 0.29-0.3/W amid persistent -10%-below gross margin. Further declines will be limited.
Module
Module prices slightly decreased this week, given prices for ground-mounted projects reached RMB 0.75-0.78/W. Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers offered lower price quotes due to lower order volumes, with that for some new orders reaching a new low. Prices for distributed generation projects stayed at RMB 0.78-0.85/W. Overall TOPCon average prices will approach RMB 0.8/W and likely to touch RMB 0.78/W at the end of the month.
Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sat at RMB 0.7-0.8/W. For HJT modules, prices came in at RMB 0.84-0.95/W, with utility-scale projects falling toward lower prices. Given bottomed-out module prices, the price gap between p-type IBC and TOPCon modules widened to RMB 0.01-0.02/W, while n-type TBC module prices are unclear due to fewer projects.
Demand has not significantly recovered. Utility-scale projects in China will boost demand in August, while non-Chinese demand remains stable. Few buyers accept higher prices. Price wars and cheap, low-efficiency products continue disrupting the market, making it difficult for module prices to rebound.
In non-China markets, prices for HJT modules dropped to USD 0.12-0.125/W. PERC modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.105/W in Asia-Pacific, EUR 0.085-0.115/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.13/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.12/W in Brazil, and USD 0.09-0.11/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approached below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America.