Polysilicon price trend uncertain while wafer, cell drop under pressure

Polysilicon

The polysilicon supply remains stable this week, and the overall supply volume in August will likely align with previous forecasts of a month-on-month decline. However, starting in mid-August, some leading manufacturers cut ingot utilization rates, impacting the market. If non-vertically integrated wafer manufacturers follow suit for the rate cuts in September, polysilicon demand will decrease. On the other hand, some polysilicon manufacturers are expected to complete maintenance and raise utilization rates and output in September. Thus, the supply in September may slightly rebound, likely raising inventory levels and hindering spot price recoveries for polysilicon.

Polysilicon orders show a noticeable divergence. Some buyers have excess polysilicon inventories beyond their actual needs from previous shipments. Given the persistently low-level ingot utilization rates, purchasing demand is not urgent, leaving a wait-and-see attitude. Other buyers with inelastic demand gradually complete their purchases, and the slight adjustments in mainstream market prices have been primarily reflected. Buyers will hardly accept significant price hikes amid the gloomy outlook for wafer prices in September.

Overall inventory level has dropped significantly except few manufacturers. Declining utilization rates and concentrated shipments have allowed the polysilicon inventory level to reach a healthy level.
 

Wafer

This week, wafer prices slipped due to fluctuating supply-demand dynamics, especially n-type wafers. Rising polysilicon prices and falling cell prices have challenged the wafer sector.

Prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers stayed at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. For n-type M10, G12, and G12R wafers, prices slipped to RMB 1.08/piece, RMB 1.5/piece, and RMB 1.23/piece, respectively.

It’s reportedly that n-type 183mm wafers' low-price range dropped to RMB 1.05-1.06/piece, with some manufacturers cutting price quotes for n-type 210mm ones to RMB 1.45/piece, a 6-7% decline from last week. The 210RN wafers faced price decline pressure as demand shifted to 183*210mm, while 182*210mm dominated market inventory, resulting in a potential decline in prices for such format.

Despite recent rumors of leading manufacturers’ plans for production cuts, utilization rates won’t see changes until September. Wafer prices will likely decline amid unstable supply-demand dynamics in August. In non-China markets, more Tier-1 manufacturers maintain product competitiveness via dual distribution and OEM models with cell manufacturers.

Cell

This week, cell trading prices dropped given recent adjustments by leading manufacturers. Prices for p-type M10, G12, and n-type M10 TOPCon cells reached RMB 0.28-0.285/W. G12R, G12 TOPCon cell prices sustained at RMB 0.28-0.285/W and RMB 0.29/W. Most manufacturers hardly sustain prices above RMB 0.29/W. HJT cell prices remain at RMB 0.39-0.42/W.

Module price decline dominates cell prices, and the cell sector lacks bargaining strength. Only ultra-high-efficiency cell makers can maintain higher prices. Additionally, prices for lower-efficiency cells and specific products (dept-offsetting goods) dropped further, reaching RMB 0.27/W and below.
 

Module

Manufacturers are lowering prices to grab orders, with some leading manufacturers adopting aggressive pricing strategies. Prices for ground-mounted projects stayed at RMB 0.71-0.77/W. Tier-2 and Tier-3 manufacturers offered lower price quotes due to lower order volumes, with some new orders reaching RMB 0.7/W. Prices for distributed generation projects fell to RMB 0.77-0.82/W. Overall, TOPCon average prices came in at RMB 0.78-0.8/W and would likely touch RMB 0.78/W at the end of the month.

Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sat at RMB 0.67-0.8/W, with recent prices dipping below RMB 0.7/W. For HJT modules, prices stayed at RMB 0.8-0.95/W, with utility-scale projects falling toward lower prices. Manufacturers would sustain prices at RMB 0.9/W.

The price gap between p-type IBC and TOPCon modules remained at RMB 0.02/W, while that with n-type TBC module prices reached RMB 0.05-0.07/W.

Demand has not significantly recovered. Utility-scale projects in China will boost demand in August, while non-China demand remains stable. Few buyers accept higher prices. Price wars and cheap, low-efficiency products continue disrupting the market, making it difficult for module prices to rebound.

In non-China markets, prices for HJT modules stayed at USD 0.12-0.125/W. PERC modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.11/W in Asia-Pacific, USD 0.1-0.11/W in Japan and Korea, EUR 0.085-0.11/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.12/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.11/W in Brazil, and USD 0.1-0.11/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approached below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America. Previous orders were delivered at USD 0.15/W, and USD 0.09-0.1/W for new orders, reflecting significant price differentiation. In the U.S., market prices are affected by policy uncertainties, resulting in less demand. Manufacturers delivered TOPCon modules at prices of USD 0.23-0.28/W this week, slightly below the previous USD 0.28-0.3/W level. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules is USD 0.02-0.03/W. InfoLink’s weekly spot price updates will include prices for U.S.-made modules based on market movements.