| Category | |
|---|---|
| Author | InfoLink |
| Updated | September 04, 2024 |
Polysilicon
The expected price hikes for the upstream polysilicon sector diminished this week. Price fluctuations for China-made polysilicon were related to bottomed mainstream prices in the early third quarter and its slight recovery in August. Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stayed at RMB 38-41/kg, averaging RMB 39.5/kg, with the low-price range reaching RMB 37/kg. Prices would hardly recover in the short term. For China-made granular polysilicon, prices were mostly sustained at RMB 36-37/kg, averaging RMB 36/kg.
Prices for non-China-made polysilicon remained low due to falling demand and shipping momentum except few Tier-1 manufacturers. Thus, the polysilicon supply in non-China markets saw a quarter-on-quarter decline in the third quarter, resulting in rising port inventory levels and price instabilities.
As for the widespread maintenance and production cuts in the third quarter, polysilicon production faces more danger than the wafer, cell, and module sectors. Production halts and restarts require time and internal coordination. Regular maintenance, typically after 9-14 months of operation, is standard unless the harsh market forces manufacturers to adjust maintenance schedules to ease E&O inventory.
China's polysilicon production technology has evolved over the years, allowing manufacturers to take more proactive measures, such as phased maintenance, minimizing the impact on costs. However, prolonged halts can hinder production line restarts, potentially leading to unaffordable restart or technological renovation costs for manufacturers.
Wafer
Wafer trading prices stayed flat this week despite buyer-seller standoffs, with manufacturers insisting on the adjusted price quotes. So far, few buyers accepted quotes at RMB 1.15/piece for 183N wafers and RMB 1.3/piece for 210RN ones.
Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers stabilized at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, with RMB 1.75/piece traded this week. For n-type wafers, prices were mostly traded at RMB 1.06-1.08/piece, RMB 1.5/piece, and RMB 1.23-1.25/piece for 183N, G12, and G12R wafers, respectively.
In September, planned production for wafers and cells may see month-on-month reductions amid attempted price hikes. However, further price hikes for these two sectors will be challenging as they hinge on module price trends, given the tense supply-demand dynamics.
Cell
This week, cell prices stayed stable. P-type M10 cell prices sat at RMB 0.28-0.285/W, with some manufacturers fulfilling previous orders above RMB 0.29/W, high price range dropped to RMB 0.285/W. For p-type G12 ones, prices stayed at RMB 0.28-0.29/W. Capacity phase-outs will continue to stabilize p-type cell prices.
For n-type cells, M10 TOPCon cell prices sat at RMB 0.27-0.285/W, with high price range falling from RMB 0.29/W due to inventory piling up. G12R cell prices remained at RMB 0.27-0.29/W while lower-priced orders have caused a price gap. G12 cells were priced at RMB 0.285-0.29/W, and tighter supply has pushed the lower price up from RMB 0.28/W, with mainstream prices likely to rise to RMB 0.29/W.
Cell manufacturers didn’t accept raised price quotes for n-type M10 wafers last week and no purchases have been reported. However, some G12R wafers were delivered at higher prices. In the short term, the cell sector is planning price increases for next week as upstream prices rise, but it’s uncertain if module makers will accept the changes due to unclear demand.
Module
Module prices averaged RMB 0.75-0.77/W this week. Prices for ground-mounted project tenders declined further with new orders delivering at nearly RMB 0.7/W. For distributed generation projects, prices slip to RMB 0.77-0.8/W due to falling spot prices.
Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sat at RMB 0.67-0.78/W. For HJT modules, prices stayed at RMB 0.8-0.93/W, with utility-scale projects falling toward lower prices. Manufacturers would sustain prices at nearly RMB 0.9/W.
The price gap between p-type IBC and TOPCon modules remained at RMB 0.02/W, while that with n-type TBC module price quotes narrowed to RMB 0.03-0.07/W. As many centralized procurement projects in China are including BC products in tenders, planned productions will rise accordingly. Further progress hinges on the upcoming tenders.
With price wars and cheap, low-efficiency products disrupting the market, module prices will hardly rebound. Manufacturers adopt more aggressive pricing strategies, with some products cleaning out at prices below RMB 0.7/W.
Prices remained stable in non-China markets. Prices for HJT modules stayed at USD 0.12-0.125/W. PERC modules were delivered at USD 0.09-0.1/W. For TOPCon modules, prices varied significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.11/W in Asia-Pacific, USD 0.1-0.11/W in Japan and Korea, EUR 0.085-0.11/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.12/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.11/W in Brazil, and USD 0.1-0.11/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approached below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America. Previous orders were delivered at USD 0.15/W, and USD 0.09-0.1/W for new orders, reflecting significant price differentiation. In the U.S., market prices are affected by policy uncertainties, resulting in less demand. Manufacturers delivered TOPCon modules at USD 0.23-0.28/W this week, slightly below the previous USD 0.28-0.3/W level. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules is USD 0.015-0.03/W. InfoLink’s weekly spot price updates will include prices for U.S.-made modules based on market movements.
The market outlook remains gloomy. With Chinese centralized procurement projects wrapping up, new demand to boost the market is unlikely this year. In non-China markets, demand remains weak due to stockpiles, economic struggles, and policy changes. Module manufacturers adjust production based on the market, with many reporting average order intake rates of 60-70% for the third quarter. The outlook for the fourth quarter is uncertain, and any industry recovery is unlikely until the end of the year or early next year, depending on demand.