Cell prices to rise while end-user demand missed estimates

Polysilicon

Polysilicon supply has seen a month-on-month decline for four consecutive months, down 2% this month, marking the lowest monthly production since early 2024. While inventory levels on the supply side have fallen, polysilicon buyers still hold rising inventories.

Prices for new orders recover slightly after weeks of attempted price hikes, similar to last week. Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks come in at RMB 37.5-43/kg, averaging RMB 40/kg, with mainstream prices for new orders rising. However, some buyers still hold considerable polysilicon inventories and deliver previous orders at lower prices than new orders; some wafer makers keep low utilization rates, leading to sluggish demand for polysilicon purchases.

Whether the slight price hike for new orders will continue in the fourth quarter amid buyer-seller standoffs hinges on leading polysilicon suppliers and the fierce competition within the supply chain, especially as module prices sustain low.

The market situation is becoming increasingly complex, with varying degrees of price inversion relative to cash cost levels across different sectors. Recently, there has been a rise in delayed payments or defaults, where some companies cannot meet payment deadlines. In response, some makers have resorted to alternative methods to maintain operations, such as offsetting payments with materials. Still, these measures are effectively putting intense strain on the cash flow of some makers, posing substantial challenges to their financial stability.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices mostly stay flat this week. Tier-1 makers sustain prices at RMB 1.15/piece but failed to deliver. No buyer has accepted price quotes of RMB 1.15/piece for 183N and RMB 1.3/piece for 210RN wafers amid lackluster demand.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers sit at RMB 1.25/piece and RMB 1.7-1.75/piece this week. N-type wafers are mostly traded at RMB 1.06-1.08/piece, RMB 1.5/piece, and RMB 1.23-1.25/piece for 183N, G12, and G12R, respectively. Yet, no buyer has now accepted RMB 1.15/piece for 183N wafers. Reportedly, G12R wafers have seen trading prices at RMB 1.3/piece.

As current trading prices for 183N wafers have failed to meet sellers’ expectations, some makers have postponed shipments, leaving a rising wafer inventory level. All participants are closely eyeing whether wafer prices can be raised. The negotiations between buyers and sellers will likely reach a temporary conclusion around Chinese National Day, striking a balance between price quotes and trading prices, resulting in a new pricing consensus.
 

Cell

Average prices this week for p-type M10 and G12 cells stay at RMB 0.26-0.285/W and RMB 0.28-0.29/W, respectively. While most makers plan to halt p-type capacity gradually starting in October, cell prices still hinge on further module demand.

Prices for n-type M10 cells continue slipping to RMB 0.26-0.28/W this week, averaging RMB 0.27/W, with remarkably few makers delivering orders at RMB 0.275-0.28/W. For n-type G12R and G12 cells, average prices are on par with last week’s level, reaching RMB 0.27-0.29/W and RMB 0.285-0.29/W, respectively. Cell prices have diverged due to the gap between order volumes and production efficiency.

With large-scale production cuts among cell makers, the overall cell inventory level equals a week of production volume, with some even reaching healthier inventories, translating to production below three days. Given the cell production plans for October likely seeing a month-on-month decline, the oversupply may improve. Cell makers have been trying to raise price quotes recently. Nevertheless, as cell prices remain impacted by plunging module prices, further price trends still hinge on the affordability of the module sector.
 

Module

This week, the average module price slips to RMB 0.7-0.73/W amid lackluster demand and constant price declines. Prices land at RMB 0.68-0.73/W for ground-mounted projects, RMB 0.67-0.79/W for distributed generation projects, RMB 0.67-0.78/W for PERC glass-glass 182mm modules, special-spec products, seeing price inversion with TOPCon for new orders. HJT modules can hardly sustain prices, slipping to RMB 0.8-0.88/W, with utility-scale projects falling toward lower prices due to the continued price declines for TOPCon; the average price approaches RMB 0.85/W. For BC modules, the price gap between p-type IBC and TOPCon remains at RMB 0.02/W, while that with n-type TBC price quotes stabilizes at RMB 0.03-0.07/W.

Notably, recent increases in low-priced, selloffs, and non-conventional channel sales have disrupted the market dynamics. Current demand is less than in previous periods when there was typically more proactive stockpiling before long holidays. The gloomy order volume continues to pressure module makers. In response, they are cutting prices more aggressively to below RMB 0.7/W, even toward RMB 0.65/W in October. Thus, module prices will hardly rebound in the short term, aligned with our previous expectations.

Module prices in non-China markets stay flat this week. HJT and PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.12-0.125/W and USD 0.09-0.1/W, respectively. For TOPCon modules, prices vary significantly among regions, sitting at USD 0.1-0.11/W in Asia-Pacific, USD 0.1-0.11/W in Japan and Korea, EUR 0.085-0.11/W in Europe, USD 0.105-0.12/W in Australia, USD 0.085-0.11/W in Brazil, and USD 0.1-0.12/W in the Middle East. For utility-scale projects, prices approach below USD 0.1/W in the Middle East and USD 0.09-0.11/W in Latin America. In the Middle East, previous orders are being delivered at USD 0.11-0.12/W, while new orders are at USD 0.09-0.1/W, reflecting significant price divergence. In the U.S., market prices are influenced by policy uncertainties, resulting in less demand. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.23-0.28/W this week, slightly below the previous USD 0.28-0.3/W level. The price gap between PERC and TOPCon modules reaches USD 0.015-0.03/W. InfoLink’s weekly spot price updates will include prices for U.S.-made modules based on market movements.