G12R cells lose ground while negotiations for wafers continue

Polysilicon

The polysilicon market remains subdued this month, with this trend continuing this week. On the demand side, buyers are not in a hurry to sign orders due to previous inventory accumulation, current market slumps, and lower ingot utilization rates, all of which have led to falling material demand. On the supply side, industry self-regulation initiatives and meetings are still in the early stages, leading to unclear supply cuts for mid-to-late Q4. Leading and granular polysilicon makers are expected to impact year-end supply levels directly.

By the end of the month, inventory levels on the supply side have continued to rise, with an apparent month-on-month increase, pushing inventory pressure to its peak this year. Coupled with current spot prices below cash cost levels, polysilicon makers are increasingly inclined to sustain or even raise prices but remain constrained. Thus, further price declines will still be limited in the short term.

Polysilicon supply from late 2024 to the Lunar New Year holiday 2025 will be crucial, especially for Tier-1 makers’ utilization rate revisions.
 

Wafer

Wafer inventories have seen faster clearances till the month's end, but makers still face challenges in securing orders amid sluggish demand. Despite some makers raising price quotes last week, no buyer has accepted trading prices at RMB 1.1/piece for 183N wafers so far. Wafer prices continue slipping.

P-type M10 and G12 wafers are traded at RMB 1.1-1.2/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. Some wafer makers undersell 182P below RMB 1.05/piece due to rare production.

Mainstream trading prices for 183N wafers slip to RMB 1-1.03/piece this week. Despite all makers insisting on price quotes at last week’s level, delivery prices have mostly dropped to RMB 1-1.05/piece, with some Tier-2 and Tier-3 peers even delivering below RMB 1/piece, reflecting chaotic price wars. G12 and G12R wafers are traded at RMB 1.45/piece and RMB 1.23-1.25/piece, respectively.

With the gloomy year-end demand period approaching, wafer makers will gradually start production cuts and maintenance, with monthly output likely to see further declines. Wafer makers are planning their pricing and production strategies for the end of 2024.
 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.28/W and RMB 0.285/W this week; spot prices sit at RMB 0.26-0.29/W and RMB 0.27-0.29/W, respectively. As most manufacturers phase out p-type cells, overall supply and module demand are falling. P-type cell prices will remain stable, with unlikely to experience major fluctuations.

Regarding n-type, prices for M10 range from RMB 0.26-0.28/W and averaged RMB 0.27/W. Prices for G12 ranged RMB 0.28-0.29/W and averaged RMB 0.285/W, while that for G12R dropped to RMB 0.27-0.29/W and averaged RMB 0.275/W. Manufacturers report that demand for G12R cells weakened, and with more production expected in November, prices for G12R may keep dropping.

Production cuts and fast inventory reduction brought Chinese cell stock to a healthy level of one week in October. However, the cell sector still faces pressure from both upstream and downstream, with limited pricing power. Future cell prices will depend on manufacturers' production plans and factors like recent Chinese policy promoting price stability to support a potential price increase.
 

Module

Module prices stagnate this week, with Tier-1 makers raising prices by RMB 0.01-0.03/W. TOPCon module prices recover to RMB 0.68–0.72/W. Some distributed projects have seen a slight price increase from RMB 0.65/W to RMB 0.68/W, though larger orders will take more time to trade. Ground-mounted project prices are mostly stable, but some still run below cost due to pricing mechanisms, with some TOPCon modules traded at RMB 0.62-0.68/W. Manufacturers are working to extend price adjustment cycles and modify delivery terms to prevent issues. Future price trends will rely on coordination from industry associations and manufacturers' self-regulation.

Demand growth for November to December is limited, with no major increase in markets. Manufacturers' inventories have risen slightly, and module production will stay steady at 50–52 GW. Module prices are likely to remain stable, with little chance of major increases.

Prices for other formats are stable this week as manufacturers wait to see if prices will rise in the coming period. Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.65-0.76/W and even see prices reversing with TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized products. Prices for HJT modules stay at RMB 0.75-0.88/W, with that for utility-scale projects reaching the low-price range and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7-0.73/W. BC modules also see price increases. The price gap between N-TBC and TOPCon reaches RMB 0.03-0.07/W,

Prices remain stable in non-China markets this week. However, the VAT rebate policy may be canceled, which could impact prices. Manufacturers are preparing for this by including negotiation clauses and adjusting prices and liability terms in project contracts. It's important to monitor policy changes in the coming months. HJT module prices stay at USD 0.12-0.125/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.1/W. TOPCon modules saw clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific sitting at USD 0.087-0.11/W and USD 0.10-0.11/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China sit at USD 0.08-0.1/W; prices range from USD 0.105-0.12/W in Australia. Demand in Europe is weaker, with prices sitting at EUR 0.087-0.11/W. The Brazilian market reportedly undersells modules, with prices ranging from USD 0.07-0.11/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.10-0.12/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects, while previous orders are delivered at USD 0.11-0.12/W and new orders are signed at USD 0.09-0.1/W, a bigger price gap. The Latin American market saw a USD 0.09-0.11/W price.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.28/W. PERC and TOPCon modules saw a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.