Polysilicon and module prices stabilize while midstream prices vary by format

Polysilicon

The polysilicon sector stays unchanged this week. Trading activities in the polysilicon sector are inactive, with most buyers consuming their stocks.

Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stay at RMB 37-42/kg and average RMB 40/kg, though some Tier-2,3 and newer manufacturers trade below this range. As supply continues to decline month-on-month, low prices in the spot market are becoming scarcer. Prices for granular polysilicon stay at RMB 36-37/kg and average RMB 36.5/kg, with relatively low inventory pressure.

Industry self-regulation measures and policy meetings are ongoing in Q4. The new supply is decreasing earlier this month, though the impact will depend on leading manufacturers’ latest strategies. The dry season and production plans in Sichuan and Yunnan will influence supply through year-end and before the Lunar New Year holiday.

Spot inventory levels are increasing. Even with reduced utilization rates and production, inventory remains high. Given recent discussions in the industry, a cautious approach is recommended as not all information is confirmed.
 

Wafer

As year-end approaches, strong sales from cell manufacturers boosted wafer purchases, helping wafer makers clear inventory. The mainstream price for 183N wafers reached RMB 1/piece. With polysilicon selling at RMB 40/kg and wafers at RMB 1/piece, wafer makers face a critical situation and gross margins nearing -40%.

Mainstream trading prices for 183N wafers slipped this week, delivering at RMB 1-1.03/piece. As of Wednesday, new quotes from manufacturers reached RMB 1.03/piece, with lower prices phasing out. G12 and G12R wafers are traded at RMB 1.45/piece and RMB 1.2/piece, respectively.

Recently, supply and demand have shifted between different formats. As production shifts to 210RN wafers, 183N wafers are becoming scarce. Prices are raised from RMB 1/piece to RMB 1.03/piece, likely reaching RMB 1.05/piece. Meanwhile, prices for G12RN wafers are dropping as supply increases. Prices for 210RN wafers are down to RMB 1.18/piece, with some manufacturers testing even lower prices.
 

Cell

Prices for p-type cells slipped this week, with average prices for M10 and G12 falling from RMB 0.28/W to RMB 0.275/W and RMB 0.285/W to RMB 0.28/W, respectively. Spot prices for M10 and G12 reached RMB 0.26-0.28/W and RMB 0.27-0.285/W. Despite most cell makers eliminating p-type capacity, the capacity phase-outs remain slower than the falling module demand amid oversupply, resulting in price declines for p-type cells.

For n-type cells, prices for M10, G12, and G12R sat at RMB 0.26-0.28/W, RMB 0.28-0.29/W, and RMB 0.27-0.285/W, averaging RMB 0.27/W, RMB 0.285/W and RMB 0.275/W, respectively. The high-price range for G12R cells dropped from RMB 0.29/W to RMB 0.285/W.

N-type cells of all formats have shown supply-demand divergence recently. Despite rising production in November, G12R has seen no growing demand, leading to a gloomy price forecast. For M10, cell makers are actively raising price quotes amid tight supply, with Tier-1's latest quotes moving upward from RMB 0.27/W to RMB 0.275/W. However, further price hikes for cells still hinge on the affordability of the module sector, given that the cell sector lacks price negotiation power.

Module

Prices remain deadlocked this week, with some module makers raising price quotes already. Yet, the adjustment will take time to materialize. TOPCon module prices hover at RMB 0.65-0.74/W, with some previous orders delivered above RMB 0.7/W. The low-price range for distributed generation projects was revised upward last week, but large-scale trading still takes time. Ground-mounted project prices are mostly stable, but some still run below cost due to pricing mechanisms, with some TOPCon modules delivered at RMB 0.62-0.68/W. Manufacturers are attempting to extend price adjustment periods and modify delivery terms to prevent failures. Future price trends will hinge on coordination between industry associations and manufacturers' self-regulation.

Considering end-user acceptance, we maintain the same outlook: module prices will likely stay flat in the short term, with unlikely substantial price hikes.

The demand outlook remains weak throughout Q4, with order volumes less clear than previous periods. Demand is primarily driven by domestic ground-mounted projects, while non-China markets are constrained by inventory accumulation, economic sluggishness, and policy changes. As domestic demand subsides in mid-to-late November, market sentiment may turn pessimistic, with inventory likely piling up, potentially resulting in less robust stocking ahead of the Lunar New Year in January. Global module production in November and December is estimated at 53 GW, with most growth driven by Tier-1 makers stockpiling in advance. However, given the sluggish demand, manufacturers must manage production schedules cautiously to avoid inventory buildups.

Prices for other formats stabilized this week as most module makers wait to see if prices will recover in the coming period. Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.65-0.76/W, and prices are even reversing with TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized products. Prices for HJT modules stay at RMB 0.75-0.88/W, with that for utility-scale projects reaching the low-price range and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7-0.73/W. BC modules also see price hikes. The price gap between N-TBC and TOPCon reaches RMB 0.03-0.07/W.

Prices remain flat in non-China markets this week. However, the VAT rebate policy may be canceled, impacting non-China module prices. In response, module makers include negotiation clauses and adjust prices and liability terms in project contracts. Policy changes in the coming months will be noteworthy. HJT module prices stay at USD 0.12-0.125/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.1/W. TOPCon modules see clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific sitting at USD 0.087-0.11/W and USD 0.10-0.11/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China sit at USD 0.08-0.1/W; prices range from USD 0.105-0.12/W in Australia. Demand in Europe is weaker, with prices sitting at EUR 0.087-0.11/W. The Brazilian market reportedly undersells modules, with prices ranging from USD 0.07-0.11/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.10-0.12/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects, while previous orders are delivered at USD 0.11-0.12/W and new orders are signed at USD 0.09-0.1/W, a larger price gap. The Latin American market sees a USD 0.09-0.11/W price.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.28/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.