Low-price range for modules stabilizes amid mixed polysilicon prices

Polysilicon

Regarding prices, the polysilicon sector shows similar trends this week, with buyers and sellers remaining at a stalemate. Fewer deliveries this week result in minimal price fluctuations. Mainstream prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stay at RMB 36-42/kg, averaging RMB 40/kg, with Tier-1 makers' prices approaching RMB 39-42/kg and Tier-2 and Tier-3's low prices leaning toward RMB 36-38/kg. Prices for China-made granular polysilicon stay at RMB 36-37/kg, averaging RMB 36.5/kg, with minor inventory pressure.

On the supply-demand front, leading manufacturers adjust strategies in November, aiming primarily for price stability. With the arrival of the dry season, planned production in Sichuan and Yunnan see lower utilization rates. Meanwhile, with limited production ramp-ups from new capacity, total output for November may fall to 120,000-123,000 MT. The production-cut strategy can help stabilize prices; however, monitoring inventory depletion rates is essential. The utilization rate in the ingot sector has recently dropped to around 50%. Considering the typical pre-Chinese New Year stocking demand, faster inventory depletion for polysilicon will be likely. However, further declines in wafer utilization rates require observation. Thus, the ongoing negotiation dynamics between buyers and sellers remain a critical focus.

Spot inventories keep rising. Even with reduced utilization rates and production volumes, inventory levels remain high. Given more recent hot talks in the industry, rational caution is required as it's challenging to discern truth from misinformation.

For non-China polysilicon, delivery prices mostly remain flat at USD 19-23/kg. However, recent US policy changes have reduced delivery volumes. In response, some non-China makers initiated maintenance early in October. Tracking further US policy developments is crucial.
 

Wafer

As year-end approaches, strong sales from cell makers last week have boosted wafer purchases, helping wafer makers clear inventory. Mainstream prices for 183N wafers have sustained, with trading prices rebounding to RMB 1.03/piece.

P-type M10 and G12 wafers are traded at RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As some makers have cut 182P wafer production, prices stay at RMB 1.1-1.2/piece.

Mainstream trading prices for 183N wafers slightly rise this week, delivering at RMB 1-1.03/piece. As of this Wednesday, prices at RMB 1/piece have phased out with a small number of transactions. G12 and G12R wafers are traded at RMB 1.4-1.45/piece and RMB 1.18-1.2/piece, respectively.

Recently, supply and demand have shifted among different formats. As production shifts to 210RN wafers, 183N wafers are becoming scarce. Prices are raised from RMB 1/piece to RMB 1.03/piece, likely reaching RMB 1.05/piece. Meanwhile, prices for G12RN wafers are slipping as supply increases; 210RN wafers are down to RMB 1.16-1.18/piece, with some makers cutting prices even lower.
 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.275/W and RMB 0.28/W this week; prices range at RMB 0.26-0.28/W and RMB 0.27-0.285/W, respectively. As only a few manufacturers produce p-type cells, overall supply and module demand are falling, with long-term prices remaining stable.

Regarding n-type, prices for M10 range from RMB 0.26-0.28/W and averaged RMB 0.27/W. Prices for G12 ranged RMB 0.28-0.29/W and averaged RMB 0.285/W, while that for G12R dropped to RMB 0.27-0.28/W and averaged RMB 0.27/W, same as M10 cells. With ongoing weak demand for G12R cells, short-term prices will remain low.

Supply-demand shifts have affected N-type cells, while G12R cell prices fell with lower demand. Despite M10 cells holding average prices at RMB 0.27/W, year-end orders raised short-term demand and tightened supply, with few orders delivered at RMB 0.275/W. Some manufacturers may adopt RMB 0.275/W as a standard price, but wider price increases will depend on module sector acceptance.
 

Module

This week saw fewer trading, with prices largely holding steady. TOPCon modules hold prices at RMB 0.65–0.7/W, with a few previous orders delivering above RMB 0.7/W. Lower prices at RMB 0.62–0.63/W are available but with reduced delivery. Bidding prices are stabilizing, signaling market positivity. Distributed projects were priced at RMB 0.68–0.74/W, though large orders need more time to materialize. Manufacturers are extending price adjustment cycles and revising delivery terms to avoid non-execution issues. Future pricing will depend on coordinated pricing efforts and industry self-regulation, with some projects still discussing prices below RMB 0.68/W.

Given end-market acceptance, our view remains unchanged. Although some manufacturers have raised prices, the impact will take time. Inventory and retreated modules continue to disrupt the market, affecting trading prices. In the short term, module prices will stay stable and unlikely to increase significantly.

Demand will remain weak through Q4, with Chinese distributed projects driving the market. In the next 2-3 weeks, Chinese tenders will be key to seeing if prices stabilize.

Prices for other formats stabilized this week as most module makers wait to see if prices will recover in the coming period. Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.65-0.76/W, and prices are even reversing with TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized products. Prices for HJT modules stay at RMB 0.75-0.875/W, with utility-scale projects reaching the low price at RMB 0.75-0.8/W and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7-0.73/W. BC modules also see price hikes. Prices for N-TBC reached RMB 0.79-0.82/W.

Prices slipped in non-China markets this week. HJT module prices sit at USD 0.11-0.12/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.095/W. TOPCon modules see clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific sitting at USD 0.085-0.105/W and USD 0.10-0.105/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China sit at USD 0.08-0.09/W; prices range from USD 0.10-0.115/W in Australia. Demand in Europe is weaker, with prices sitting at EUR 0.087-0.10/W. The Brazilian market reportedly undersells modules, with prices ranging from USD 0.07-0.10/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.115/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects. The Latin American market sees a USD 0.09-0.10/W price.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Recent order prices are falling, with 1Q25 prices expected to drop further. Local prices are between USD 0.27–0.3/W, and non-local prices are between USD 0.18–0.22/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.