Category
Author InfoLink
Updated November 20, 2024

Polysilicon

At the end of the year, the polysilicon sector remains sluggish, with limited transactions. High inventory levels and declining ingot utilization rates lead to ongoing reductions in polysilicon demand. Demand will remain stable in Q4, restricting supply-demand dynamics and product flow.

Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks started to slip after three weeks of weakness. Given the limited new orders and varying inventory levels held by ingot manufacturers, significant price drops are challenging this week. High-end prices dropped from RMB 42/kg to RMB 40/kg, and low-end prices fell from RMB 37/kg to RMB 36/kg. Average prices may have slightly drop in December. Prices for China-made granular polysilicon stay at RMB 36–36.5/kg, averaging RMB 36.5/kg, with light inventory pressure.

Discussions are ongoing about limitations for production, prices, and energy consumption standards for new capacity. Polysilicon production now exceeds 1,200 GW/year. Some new projects remain inactive despite having production capabilities, making further short-term capacity expansion in China unnecessary.
 

Wafer

The supply and demand for 210RN wafers remain weak this week, with prices continuing to decline.

P-type M10 and G12 wafers are traded at RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As some makers have cut 182P wafer production, prices stay at RMB 1.1-1.2/piece.

Regarding n-type wafers, Mainstream prices for 183N stabilized at RMB 1.03/piece, though the price of RMB 1.05/piece was not traded this week. Prices for G12 and G12R wafers slipped to RMB 1.4–1.43/piece and RMB 1.16–1.18/piece, respectively.

Recently, supply and demand have shifted among different formats. As production shifts to 210RN wafers, 183N wafers are becoming scarce, supporting firmer prices. Meanwhile, prices for G12RN wafers are slipping as supply increases; 210RN wafers are down to RMB 1.16-1.18/piece, with some makers cutting prices even lower.

 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.275/W and RMB 0.28/W this week; prices sit at RMB 0.26-0.28/W and RMB 0.27-0.285/W, respectively. Due to less p-type cell capacity in China, the overall supply has decreased with lower module demand. Long-term cell prices will likely stabilize.

For n-type cells, the average price of M10 raised from last week's RMB 0.27/W to RMB 0.275/W, with the low-price range also rising from RMB 0.26/W to RMB 0.27/W, ranging at RMB 0.27-0.28/W this week. Prices for G12 cells remained unchanged this week, averaging RMB 0.285/W, ranging at RMB 0.28-0.29/W. Meanwhile, the high-price range for G12R cells slipped to RMB 0.275/W, with the average price holding steady at RMB 0.27/W, ranging at RMB 0.27-0.275/W.

Recent price hikes for n-type M10 cells are primarily driven by year-end deliveries, reduced China's export tax rebate rate, and the early delivery of non-China orders, tightening overall supply. Their mainstream average price may be raised to RMB 0.28/W next week. In contrast, despite some cell makers switching production from M10 to G12R, demand for G12R has not picked up significantly. As a result, cell prices remained low, with G12R prices falling below those of M10 cells.

In response to the reduction in China's solar export tax rebate rate starting in December, cell makers prioritize order deliveries before the new rate takes effect. Simultaneously, they either raise future price quotes for non-China clients or evaluate absorbing the tax rate gap themselves. Future prices in non-China markets will vary among manufacturers' pricing strategies and require further observation.
 

Module

This week, TOPCon module prices remained stagnant at RMB 0.65–0.7/W, with few previous orders delivered above RMB 0.7/W. Lower prices at RMB 0.62–0.63/W were available amid fewer deliveries. For distributed generation projects, prices reached RMB 0.68-0.73/W this week, with most module makers raising spot price quotes, trading prices have stabilized.

Prices for other formats stabilize this week as most module makers wait to see if prices will recover in the coming period. Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.65-0.76/W, and prices are even reversing with TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized products. Prices for HJT modules stay at RMB 0.75-0.875/W, with utility-scale projects reaching lower prices at RMB 0.75-0.8/W and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7-0.73/W. BC modules also see price hikes. Prices for N-TBC reportedly reach RMB 0.79-0.82/W.

This week, the industry has seen hot talks regarding the non-China export tax rebate from 13% to 9%. As previously forecasted, the new policy will take effect starting December. Most manufacturers have already accounted for the changes, and non-China module prices will likely experience a slight adjustment in December and January.

Prices are flat in non-China markets this week. HJT module prices sit at USD 0.11-0.12/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.095/W. TOPCon modules see clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific at USD 0.085-0.105/W and USD 0.10-0.105/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Modules are delivered at USD 0.10-0.115/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand, some are delivered at EUR 0.08-0.09/W amid severe selloffs, while others sustain normal delivery levels at EUR 0.09-0.10/W.

Brazil reportedly undersells modules, with prices diverging around USD 0.07-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.11/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects. The Latin American market sees a USD 0.09-0.10/W price.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders constantly fall, with prices likely dropping further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes reach USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.22/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.

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