Upstream prices continue to fall amid mixed module price trends

Polysilicon

As the year ends, the polysilicon sector remains weak. Production may decline further, but inventory levels remain high and unlikely to decrease quickly, making the year-end outlook unfavorable.

Polysilicon spot prices continue to slip, including new orders from major manufacturers. This is due to low utilization rates amid decreased demand, limited purchasing, and lack of new orders. Additionally, significant inventories accumulated since mid-year need time to clear, resulting in weak demand, falling prices, and rising stock levels.

As of early December, price quotes for China-made polysilicon chunks have dropped from RMB 40-42/kg to RMB 37-39/kg, indicating a clear downward shift. For China-made granular polysilicon, prices remain stable given limited supply and concentrated producers but may face declines soon.

At year-end, manufacturers face pressures such as financial reporting and performance targets, which may reduce production this month and temporarily ease inventory growth. However, stock levels remain high, and it may take at least three months to address the buildup through lower utilization rates.
 

Wafer

The supply and demand for 210RN wafers remain weak this week, with prices still declining.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers reached RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively, with 182P sustaining at RMB 1.1-1.2/piece as wafer makers have cut production.

For n-type wafers, the mainstream trading prices for 183N remain flat this week, with major shipments pricing at RMB 1.03/piece. However, attempts to raise price quotes have been unlikely, with reports of prices as low as RMB 1.02/piece seen sporadically. G12R wafer prices continue to decline, with trading prices landing at RMB 1.14–1.16/piece, and lower prices will be likely. G12N wafer prices stabilize at RMB 1.4/piece.
 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.275/W and RMB 0.28/W this week; prices sit at RMB 0.26-0.28/W and RMB 0.27-0.285/W, respectively.

For n-type cell prices, M10 stays at RMB 0.275-0.28/W, averaging RMB 0.28/W. G12 remains at RMB 0.28-0.29/W, averaging RMB 0.285/W. G12R sits at RMB 0.265-0.275/W, averaging RMB 0.27/W, with the lowest price slipping from RMB 0.27/W to RMB 0.265/W.

Some cell makers shifted production to G12R during the previous price declines for M10. Still, the overall demand for G12R has not picked up, resulting in a persistent supply-demand imbalance and a pessimistic outlook on future price trends. On the other hand, feedback from manufacturers suggests that orders placed at higher prices following the reduction in China's export tax rebate rate are still being delivered in small volumes as of this Wednesday. As a result, USD pricing remains unchanged this week. Yet, with the gradual order deliveries, price hikes in USD terms will be likely by mid-December.
 

Module

This week, TOPCon module prices are sustained at RMB 0.6–0.7/W, with few previous orders delivered above RMB 0.7/W. Modules still see the low-price range of RMB 0.6–0.65/W, with some reportedly reaching below RMB 0.6/W. Prices for distributed generation projects have slightly slipped, but the average trading prices are RMB 0.68-0.73/W. While sellers attempt to raise bidding prices above RMB 0.7/W, few buyers have accepted trading prices at RMB 0.7-0.72/W, given sluggish demand. Delivery prices and price quotes may see gaps amid price fluctuations recently.

Prices for other formats stabilize this week as most module makers wait to see if prices will recover. Prices for 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.65-0.7/W and are even reversing with TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized. HJT modules are priced at RMB 0.73-0.87/W, with utility-scale projects reaching lower prices at RMB 0.73-0.8/W and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7/W. New tender prices will be out next week, and adjustments will be made in response to market conditions. BC modules also see price hikes. Prices for N-TBC reportedly reach RMB 0.79-0.82/W.

This week's updates on overseas tax rebates indicate that, given sluggish end-user demand, successful adjustments for previous orders will be unlikely. In contrast, newly signed orders have seen adjusted pricing.

Non-China markets have seen deliveries for previous orders, with a flat average price. HJT module prices sit at USD 0.095-0.115/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.09/W. TOPCon modules see clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific at USD 0.085-0.10/W and USD 0.09-0.10/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal difference between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.095-0.11/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs, some modules are delivered at EUR 0.075-0.08/W, while futures sustain delivery at EUR 0.09-0.10/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.09-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.105/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders constantly fall, with prices likely dropping further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes reach USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.22/W. InfoLink will provide prices for locally made modules depending on the market situation.

PV glass makers have been attempting to raise prices. However, this week's trading volumes are constrained by planned module production. With sluggish demand in December, module makers have recently cut production plans, likely reaching below 50 GW. As a result, glass deliveries remain gloomy, with limited room for price hikes and minor price fluctuations. 2.0mm coated glass has still dominated recent deliveries, priced at RMB 11.5–12/m², while 3.2mm coated glass deliveries are much fewer, with prices landing at RMB 19–20/m².