Cell prices slip amid Lunar New Year production uncertainty

Polysilicon

This week, market conditions remained steady as companies focused on uncertainties around the Lunar New Year, inventory levels, and industry expectations, adjusting their shipment strategies accordingly. Increased wafer production has raised demand for polysilicon, stabilizing inventories after high levels. Most manufacturers maintain steady shipments to reduce stock, while some have slowed down due to market outlook, inventory, and quality concerns.

The impact of these strategy changes is unclear this week. Attempts to raise prices to RMB 42-45/kg failed. Price quotes for China-made polysilicon chunks and granular polysilicon stay at RMB 37-39/kg and RMB 35.5-36/kg, respectively.

Many uncertainties in 2025 and the impact of industry self-regulation will take time to assess. Prices are at the bottom, and future trends will depend on manufacturers’ strategies. Monitoring adjustments from both buyers and sellers is key, especially with the potential impact of pre-holiday stocking in January.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices stayed stable this week. As inventories dropped significantly and leading manufacturers’ sell-offs, the total stock is below half a month's supply. Manufacturers are planning to ramp up production.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers are RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. With p-type wafers becoming customized products, demand from China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

For n-type wafers, the mainstream trading prices for M10 183N wafers remain stable at RMB 1.05/piece, with limited room for further price reduction at current production and sales levels. Trading prices for G12R wafers continue to decline, with sizes gradually shifting to 182.2*183.75mm, trading at RMB 1.12-1.14/piece. G12N wafer prices stabilize at RMB 1.4/piece.

As the year ends, wafer production plans are mismatched with the cell and module sectors, so production may increase this month. Manufacturers are evaluating strategies for the Lunar New Year holiday, with stocking and holiday schedules being key points of focus. Industry self-regulation will impact next year’s production and prices. However, wafer production is mainly affected by polysilicon and module sectors, limiting its control over the market, which will depend on changes at both ends.
 

Cell

Average prices for p-type M10 and G12 cells remain flat at RMB 0.275/W and RMB 0.28/W this week; prices sit at RMB 0.26-0.28/W and RMB 0.27-0.285/W, respectively.

N-type cells:

M10: Prices slipped this week, with the average dropping from RMB 0.28/W to RMB 0.275/W and the lowest price falling to RMB 0.27/W. Prices now sit at RMB 0.27–0.28/W.

G12R: Prices also declined, with the average decreasing from RMB 0.27/W to RMB 0.265/W. Higher and lower prices have fallen, with this week's range at RMB 0.26–0.27/W.

G12: Prices sustained, with an average of RMB 0.285/W and a range of RMB 0.28–0.29/W.

Demand and price trends for cells after mid-December still hinge on module makers' production plans for January, as module makers will halt production during the Lunar New Year holiday. The falling demand for n-type M10 cells results in slipping prices. The supply-demand imbalance for G12R cells remains unresolved, leading to a gloomy price outlook. Some cell makers are planning to suspend G12R cell production before the holiday.
 

Module

Module prices stay flat this week. Despite module makers raising price quotes last week, actual price hikes failed this week. Sluggish demand will likely persist until 1Q25, as seen in module makers’ order volumes. Higher inventory levels and low-priced selloffs still impact market prices.

Module prices hold at RMB 0.6-0.73/W this week, with few previous orders delivered above RMB 0.7/W, but low prices of RMB 0.6–0.65/W persist, with delivery likely wrapping up for some low-price orders by year-end. Lower prices for distributed generation projects keep slipping, with trading prices at RMB 0.63-0.73/W. Tier-2 and Tier-3 makers reportedly offer new price quotes below RMB 0.6/W.

Prices for other formats hold steady this week, with 182mm glass-glass PERC modules sitting at RMB 0.65-0.68/W and are even reversing with TOPCon for new orders, as such products have become customized.

HJT modules are priced at RMB 0.73-0.87/W, with utility-scale projects reaching lower prices at RMB 0.73-0.8/W and minor prices falling toward RMB 0.7/W. New tender prices will be out next week, and adjustments will be made in response to market conditions. Notably, some HJT makers may cut production in December due to weak demand.

For BC modules, N-TBC prices land at RMB 0.70-0.82/W this week.

This week, module prices in non-China markets stay still. Markets have seen deliveries for previous orders with a flat average price. HJT module prices sit at USD 0.095-0.115/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.07-0.09/W. TOPCon modules see clear price diversification, with that in the Asia Pacific at USD 0.085-0.10/W and USD 0.09-0.10/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal difference between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.095-0.11/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs, some modules are delivered at EUR 0.075-0.08/W, while futures sustain delivery at EUR 0.09-0.10/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.09-0.095/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.095/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.105/W and within USD 0.1/W for utility-scale projects.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders constantly fall, with prices likely dropping further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes have reached USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are USD 0.18–0.22/W.