Polysilicon price talk in stalemate; mid-to-downstream price trends vary

Polysilicon

This week’s market changes mainly reflect different strategies among manufacturers. Some have slowed deliveries or paused contracts to push China-made polysilicon chunk prices to RMB 45/kg and granular polysilicon prices to RMB 39/kg. Others have prioritized managing inventories and production plans and maintaining steady deliveries to reduce risks. These approaches have created a delicate balance, with clear efforts to support prices. Meanwhile, wafer producers have increased inventories since late December, leading to intense negotiations that may continue until the Lunar New Year.

Current spot prices for China-made polysilicon chunks are RMB 37-41/kg, while granular polysilicon remains stable at RMB 35.5-36/kg.

Production plans are unlikely to change significantly due to the upcoming Lunar New Year and cold northern weather, helping with inventory reduction over the next two months.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices continued to rise after the New Year, driven by tight supply and demand following rapid inventory depletion. Leading manufacturers have increased their quotes: 183N wafers rose from RMB 1.1/piece to RMB 1.18/piece, 210RN wafers from RMB 1.25/piece to RMB 1.35/piece, and 210N wafers from RMB 1.45/piece to RMB 1.55/piece.

This week, trading prices for 183N and 210N wafers have risen to the quoted levels of RMB 1.18/piece and RMB 1.55/piece, respectively. However, for RN wafers, negotiations are ongoing. Some cell manufacturers still hold previous wafer stock, and weak demand has reduced the urgencyto purchase. The RMB 1.35/piece price has seen low acceptance, but an initial consensus on RMB 1.32-1.35/piece was reached this Wednesday, indicating that prices may trend toward this range.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers are RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As p-type wafers become customized products, demand from China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

N-type wafers this week:

•    M10 183N: Mainstream trading prices rise to RMB 1.18/piece.

•    G12R: Prices stay at RMB 1.25/piece, with few orders amid ongoing price negotiation. However, most manufacturers have stopped shipments.

•    G12N: Prices rise to RMB 1.55/piece.

Wafer prices have risen, driving up cell prices, but module prices have remained stable or declined. This imbalance makes it harder to sustain price increases upstream, challenging market stability.

Further market changes should be closely monitored after the Lunar New Year. If wafer prices keep rising, companies may adjust production. Increased utilization could lead to a potential price drop after the holiday.
 

Cell

Cell prices for all formats have risen this week.

P-type cells:

Due to most manufacturers shutting down p-type production, supply shortages and concentrated orders have driven prices up. 

•    The average price of p-type M10 and G12 cells has risen to RMB 0.30/W, including RMB 0.29-0.32/W for M10 and RMB 0.28-0.32/W for G12. 

•    The short-term supply-demand mismatch may persist, with p-type cell quotes reaching RMB 0.32/W this week.

N-type cells:

The average prices of M10, G12R, and G12 cells have risen to RMB 0.29/W, RMB 0.28/W, and RMB 0.29/W, respectively.

Price ranges have also increased to:

•    M10: RMB 0.285-0.295/W

•    G12R: RMB 0.275-0.285/W

•    G12: RMB 0.285-0.295/W.

As cell manufacturers have gradually cut production in recent weeks, overall cell inventory has fallen to a healthy level of 3–5 days. Meanwhile, the successful price increase for n-type wafers has put upward pressure on the cell sector, resulting in price hikes for n-type cells of all formats this week.

Notably, the wafer sector is still considering further price hikes, and the cell sector is actively responding. However, since module prices have not stabilized recently, future price trends for n-type cells beyond next week will hinge on the outcome of price negotiations across the supply chain.
 

Module

While manufacturers have raised their price quotes at the start of the new year, delivery prices continue to show a downward trend due to weak market demand. Module manufacturers are receiving orders at only about 40–50% of capacity. Additionally, earlier low-priced inventory is still impacting the spot market, causing price differentiation. Since late December, spot market prices have continued to decline, with sell-off prices now as low as RMB 0.4–0.5/W. Mainstream delivery prices have reached RMB 0.62–0.67/W.

Considering the adjustments in the spot market, the average price has dropped to RMB 0.69/W this week. In contrast, prices for utility-scale projects remain stable. Most manufacturers are reportedly following association-recommended guidance, delivering at RMB 0.68–0.70/W. The lower price range of RMB 0.6–0.65/W is also gradually narrowing. The price stability in utility-scale projects will likely continue until the Lunar New Year.

Prices for other formats:

182mm glass-glass PERC modules sit at RMB 0.6-0.68/W, while HJT modules are at RMB 0.73- 0.87/W. For utility-scale projects, prices tend toward the mid-to-low range of RMB 0.7-0.8/W, with some spot market prices falling below RMB 0.7/W. Delivery volumes have been low recently, with prices remaining unchanged. Delivery reduction affected production plans, with some HJT manufacturers cutting back in January. For BC modules, N-TBC prices land at RMB 0.68-0.79/W.

This week, module prices in non-China markets have declined, with Europe dropping the most. TOPCon module prices average USD 0.088-0.090/W. HJT module prices sit at USD 0.09-0.11/W. PERC modules are delivered at USD 0.065-0.08/W. However, regions with higher inventory are still selling off, with TOPCon modules in Europe reportedly being sold at EUR 0.05-0.07/W.

TOPCon module prices by region:

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs, prices average at EUR 0.05-0.07/W, while futures sustain delivery at EUR 0.088-0.09/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.085-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.095/W.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders constantly fall, with prices likely dropping further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes have reached USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are USD 0.18–0.22/W.