Order volumes shrink as Lunar New Year nears; price hikes continue for 182mm p-type cells

Polysilicon

Trading prices for polysilicon have risen this week.

Spot prices:

• China-made polysilicon chunks: RMB 37-42.5/kg

• China-made granular polysilicon: RMB 36-38/kg.

This week has seen a few deals of polysilicon chunks, primarily driven by wafer producers stockpiling before the Lunar New Year. These smaller transactions have lifted prices, reaching RMB 39-40/kg. Polysilicon producers are still attempting to raise price quotes for new orders, targeting RMB 45/kg for China-made polysilicon chunks and RMB 39/kg for China-made granular polysilicon. However, wafer manufacturers remain hesitant, resulting in slow price hikes.

As seen last week, manufacturers' sales strategies remain varied. Some have opted to slow down shipments or suspend contract deliveries since January, while others, focusing on inventory levels and production schedules, maintain steady deliveries amid weaker market demand to mitigate inventory risks. Manufacturers are still cautious, and price negotiations for polysilicon will continue until post-Lunar New Year.

Polysilicon production remains stable, largely due to the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday and low-temperature conditions in the northern regions. Significant fluctuations in production levels will be unlikely over the next two months. Productions have declined, and procurement volumes in Q1 are also shrinking due to low demand. Close attention will be needed to monitor the pace of inventory depletion.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have stabilized this week, with 183N and 210N rising to RMB 1.18/piece and RMB 1.55/piece, respectively, on par with price quotes.

For G12R, buyers and sellers remain in negotiations, while trading prices have increased due to purchases by vertically integrated producers, reaching RMB 1.30–1.35/piece. Notably, the upward price trend for G12R has slowed significantly compared to last week, and a fallback to RMB 1.30/piece will be likely.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers land at RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As p-type wafers become customized products, demand in China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

In response to market dynamics, InfoLink will discontinue price quotes for 210P wafers starting February 2025.

N-type wafers this week:

• M10 183N: Mainstream trading prices stay at RMB 1.18/piece. 

• G12R: Trading prices rise to RMB 1.3-1.35/piece. 

• G12N: Trading prices hold at RMB 1.55/piece.

Wafer prices have risen, driving up cell prices, but module prices have been flat or declined, making it harder to sustain upstream price hikes and challenging market stability.

Further market changes must be closely monitored after the Lunar New Year. If wafer prices keep rising, producers may adjust production. Increased utilization rates may lead to a post-holiday price decline.
 

Cell

P-type cells: 

Due to most manufacturers shutting down production, supply shortages and concentrated orders continue to increase prices this week. The average price of M10 cells has risen to RMB 0.33/W, ranging from RMB 0.32-0.34/W.

Prices of G12 cells have dropped to RMB 0.28/W this week. With production lines for this format already shut down in China, only existing inventory is being delivered. Demand will vanish after the Lunar New Year, so price updates for p-type G12 cells will be discontinued in February.

N-type cells:

• M10: Average price stays at RMB 0.29/W, with higher price increasing to RMB 0.30/W. Prices range from RMB 0.285-0.30/W.

• G12R: Average price stays at RMB 0.28/W, with prices ranging from RMB 0.275-0.285/W.

• G12: Prices keep rising, averaging RMB 0.295/W, ranging from RMB 0.29-0.30/W.

As the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, module prices have fallen, and orders have decreased. N-type cell prices have stabilized this week after earlier increases, with further changes expected after the holiday.

Meanwhile, demand for p-type M10 cells has surged due to India’s fiscal year-end, leading to supply shortages and rising prices. This supply-demand imbalance will ease by February or March, with prices stabilizing afterward.
 

Module

Module prices stayed stable this week. After earlier fluctuations, some manufacturers are still cutting spot prices by RMB 0.01-0.02/W. As inventory clears and pre-Lunar New Year deliveries slow down, spot prices have stabilized, delivering at RMB 0.62-0.67/W.

For ground-mounted projects, most orders are deferred until after the Lunar New Year, with prices steady at RMB 0.68–0.70/W, following association-recommended guidance. Lower price ranges of RMB 0.60–0.65/W are shrinking, and the market remains stable ahead of the holiday.

In summary, prices for both distributed and ground-mounted projects held steady at RMB 0.68–0.70/W this week.

• Prices for other formats:

182mm glass-glass PERC modules are priced at RMB 0.6-0.68/W. With production of 210 PERC modules ending after the Lunar New Year, its spot price updates will be discontinued from February. HJT modules are priced between RMB 0.69-0.85/W, with recent deliveries mainly fulfilling earlier orders. For utility-scale projects, prices tend toward the mid-to-low range of RMB 0.7-0.8/W. Delivery volumes have been low recently, with prices remaining unchanged. Delivery reduction affected production plans, with some HJT manufacturers cutting back in January. Orders will increase slightly in February as ground-mounted projects ramp up deliveries. For BC modules, N-TBC prices land at RMB 0.68-0.79/W.

• Non-China markets:

Prices remain stable this week. In Europe, TOPCon modules are priced at USD 0.088–0.090/W, HJT modules at USD 0.09–0.11/W, and PERC modules at USD 0.065–0.08/W. However, regions with high inventory are still selling off, with some TOPCon modules in Europe being sold for EUR 0.05–0.07/W.

• TOPCon module prices by region:

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs, prices average at EUR 0.05-0.07/W, while futures sustain delivery at EUR 0.088-0.09/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.085-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.095/W.

In the U.S., prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders constantly fall, with prices likely dropping further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes have reached USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are USD 0.18–0.22/W.