Negotiations extend post-holiday amid shrinking order volumes ahead of Lunar New Year

Polysilicon

As the Lunar New Year approaches, most orders have been completed, and there has been little market activity. Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks remain steady at RMB 37-42.5/kg and China-made granular polysilicon at RMB 36-38/kg.

Polysilicon producers are still attempting to raise price quotes for new orders, targeting RMB 45/kg for China-made polysilicon chunks and RMB 39/kg for China-made granular polysilicon. However, wafer manufacturers remain hesitant, resulting in slow price hikes.

As seen last week, manufacturers' sales strategies remain varied. Some have opted to slow down shipments or suspend contract deliveries since January, while others, focusing on inventory levels and production schedules, maintain steady deliveries amid weaker market demand to mitigate inventory risks. Manufacturers are still cautious, and price negotiations for polysilicon will continue until post-Lunar New Year.

Polysilicon production remains stable, largely due to the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday and low-temperature conditions in the northern regions. Significant fluctuations in production levels will be unlikely over the next two months. Production has declined, and procurement volumes in Q1 are also shrinking due to low demand. Close attention will be needed to monitor the pace of inventory depletion.
 

Wafer

Wafer prices have stabilized this week, with 183N and 210N staying at RMB 1.18/piece and RMB 1.55/piece, respectively. For G12R, price quotes reach RMB 1.3-1.35/W.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers land at RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As p-type wafers become customized products, demand in China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

In response to market dynamics, InfoLink will discontinue price quotes for 210P wafers starting February 2025.

N-type wafers this week:

• M10 183N: Mainstream trading prices stay at RMB 1.18/piece. 
• G12R: Trading prices rise to RMB 1.3-1.35/piece. 
• G12N: Trading prices hold at RMB 1.55/piece.

Supply-demand has driven wafer prices up, but module prices have been flat or declined, making it harder to sustain upstream price hikes and challenging market stability.

Further market changes must be closely monitored after the Lunar New Year. If wafer prices keep rising, producers may adjust production. Increased utilization rates may lead to a post-holiday price decline.
 

Cell

P-type cells this week:

M10

• Average price: RMB 0.33/W (unchanged)
• Spot price: RMB 0.32-0.34/W (unchanged)

Due to most manufacturers shutting down p-type capacity, supply shortages, and concentrated global orders, M10 prices remain relatively high this week.

G12

• Spot price: RMB 0.28/W (unchanged)

As all Chinese manufacturers have ceased G12 production lines, current deliveries are from previous inventory; market demand has sharply declined.
 

N-type cells this week:

M10

• Average price: RMB 0.29/W (unchanged)
• Low-end price: Rise to RMB 0.29/W
• Spot price: RMB 0.29-0.30/W

G12R

• Average price: RMB 0.28/W (unchanged)
• Spot price: RMB 0.275-0.285/W

G12

• Average price: RMB 0.295/W (unchanged)
• Spot price: RMB 0.29-0.30/W

In the week leading up to the Lunar New Year, as cell manufacturers begin their holidays, both deliveries and prices have stabilized, with post-holiday market changes expected. Notably, given price hikes in recent weeks, some manufacturers are reportedly planning to raise post-holiday utilization rates of p-type M10 cells. Future price trends will hinge on the actual production volumes. P-type M10 cell prices may recover if supply-demand mismatch eases.
 

Module

In the lead-up to the Lunar New Year, there has been minimal transaction activity. The spot market and ground-mounted projects have stabilized amid delivery completion, with most orders postponed for post-holiday negotiation and deliveries. Most manufacturers deliver at association-guided prices, reaching RMB 0.68-0.70/W reportedly, with fewer at the low-price range of RMB 0.60-0.65/W. Prices for distributed and ground-mounted projects remain flat this week, stabilizing at RMB 0.68-0.70/W.

Prices for other formats:

182mm PERC glass-glass modules are priced at RMB 0.6-0.68/W. With 210mm PERC module production ending after the Lunar New Year, spot price updates will be discontinued in February. HJT modules are priced at RMB 0.69-0.85/W, with recent deliveries mainly for earlier orders. For utility-scale projects, prices tend toward the mid-to-low range of RMB 0.7-0.8/W. Delivery volumes have been low recently, with prices remaining unchanged. Delivery reduction affected production plans, with some HJT manufacturers cutting back in January. Orders will increase slightly in February as ground-mounted projects ramp up deliveries. For BC modules, N-TBC prices land at RMB 0.68-0.79/W.

Prices remain stable in non-China markets this week. Module prices in Europe:

• TOPCon: USD 0.088–0.090/W
• HJT: USD 0.09–0.11/W 
• PERC: USD 0.065–0.08/W

However, regions with high inventory levels are still selling off, with TOPCon modules in Europe reportedly sold at EUR 0.05–0.07/W.

TOPCon module prices by region:

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia. Given sluggish European module demand and severe selloffs, prices average at EUR 0.05-0.07/W, while futures sustain delivery at EUR 0.088-0.09/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.085-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.095/W.

US prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders keep falling and are likely to drop further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes sit at USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.20/W.