Market stabilizes post-holiday while Europe module prices set to rise

Polysilicon

After the Lunar New Year, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with few new orders delivered this week. Prices have shown no significant changes and are sustained at pre-holiday levels. Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks and granular polysilicon stay at RMB 37-42.5/kg and RMB 36-38/kg, respectively.

The market still exhibits caution, with price negotiations for polysilicon expected to persist. It is essential to monitor buyer and seller strategies as well as market dynamics.

For the polysilicon sector, current production remains flat, but procurement volume has declined compared to February due to weaker end-user demand. The pace of inventory depletion must be monitored.

Policy changes should also be closely monitored. In addition to the previously discussed self-regulatory production controls, there have been recent discussions on capacity reduction measures. Further policies remain to be seen.
 

Wafer

The wafer market remains calm the first week after the holiday, with overall prices stabilizing. However, price divergence among formats requires attention.

For n-type G12R wafers, buyers and sellers remain in a standoff, as seller quotes do not meet buyer expectations. While some manufacturers sustain prices at RMB 1.35/piece, the overall quote shows signs of slipping. Price declines for this format will be likely.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers land at RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As p-type wafers become customized products, demand in China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

In response to market dynamics, InfoLink will discontinue price quotes for 210P wafers starting this week.

N-type wafers this week:

• M10 183N: Mainstream trading prices stay at RMB 1.18/piece. 

• G12R: Trading prices remain at RMB 1.3-1.35/piece. 

• G12N: Trading prices hold at RMB 1.55/piece.

Wafer price trends this year will be impacted by the execution of production quotas by manufacturers. While some manufacturers have adjusted production in line with regulations, overall implementation remains to be seen.

Key Factors:

• Format: RN wafers continue to face supply-demand pressure. Whether cell and module manufacturers can raise their market share in production and sales will be a key focus.

• Market Positioning: As wafers are at the midstream of the supply chain, their prices are not only dictated by their own supply and demand but also constrained by upstream polysilicon and downstream module pricing dynamics.

• Market Volatility: With polysilicon becoming more futures-driven and modules subject to price and production constraints, market uncertainties have increased, making midstream price trends more complex and unpredictable.
   

Cell

P-type cells:

• M10 (unchanged): Averaging RMB 0.33/W, ranging from RMB 0.32-0.34/W.

Due to most manufacturers shutting down p-type capacity, supply shortages, and concentrated global orders, M10 prices may not decline in the short term.

• G12: As all Chinese manufacturers have ceased production lines, price updates are discontinued starting this week.

N-type cell (unchanged):

• M10: Averaging RMB 0.29/W, ranging from RMB 0.29-0.30/W.

• G12R: Averaging RMB 0.28/W, ranging from RMB 0.275-0.285/W.

• G12: Averaging RMB 0.295/W, ranging from RMB 0.29-0.30/W.

Cell prices remained the same on the first working day after the holiday. Manufacturers are reviewing January’s production and watching the market this month. Some are considering lowering prices for G12R cells but plan to adjust production due to its prolonged weak demand. Supply-demand dynamics and cell prices are still uncertain as orders after the holiday are not yet clear.
 

Module

There has been minimal transaction activity this week after the Lunar New Year, with some manufacturers still on holiday. The spot market and ground-mounted projects have stabilized, but orders remain uncertain. Modules are delivered at RMB 0.68-0.70/W, with the low-price range of RMB 0.6-0.65/W shrinks.

Prices for other formats:

182mm PERC glass-glass modules are priced at RMB 0.6-0.68/W. With 210mm PERC module production ending after the Lunar New Year, spot price updates will be discontinued in February. HJT modules are priced at RMB 0.69-0.85/W, with recent deliveries mainly for earlier orders. For utility-scale projects, prices tend toward the mid-to-low range of RMB 0.7-0.8/W. Delivery volumes have been low recently, with prices remaining unchanged. Delivery reduction affected production plans, with some HJT manufacturers cutting back in January. Orders will increase slightly in February as ground-mounted projects ramp up deliveries. For BC modules, N-TBC prices land at RMB 0.68-0.79/W.

It is important to watch for policy changes ahead. Manufacturers should focus on product quality, and new regulations might be introduced soon.

Prices remain stable in non-China markets this week. In Europe, prices are showing signs of rising as previous low-priced orders are being completed. However, the increase will depend on market acceptance. So far, only minor adjustments have appeared in the spot market without affecting the average price. 

Prices this week:

• TOPCon: USD 0.090/W

• HJT: USD 0.09-0.11/W

• PERC: USD 0.065-0.08/W

TOPCon module prices by region:

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia. With clearance sales ending, European spot prices are stabilizing. Manufacturers are considering raising prices to EUR 0.1/W, but market uncertainty remains. Futures prices are EUR 0.088-0.09/W, leading to slight price adjustments. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.085-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.095/W.

US prices are impacted by uncertainty of policies, resulting in weaker project activities in February. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders keep falling and are likely to drop further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes sit at USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.20/W.