Module prices set for another rise, hinging on demand recovery

Polysilicon

The market remains in a wait-and-see mode, with some February orders being gradually executed, while others remain under negotiation. Prices for China-made polysilicon chunks stay at RMB 37-43/kg. As to China-made granular polysilicon, recent new orders have been gradually finalized, with current deliveries primarily supplied by mainstream manufacturers at the price of RMB 37-39/kg. Mid-to-late-stage manufacturers, on the other hand, have fewer new orders executed after the Lunar New Year holiday, and their price adjustments will be updated next week.

The market still exhibits caution, with price negotiations for polysilicon expected to persist. It is essential to monitor buyer and seller strategies as well as market dynamics. Orders this week are delivered at slightly higher prices, pushing up trading prices. Downstream buyers are not widely accepting the increase, so bulk deals  have not happened yet. Production remains stable, but purchases have declined due to weaker demand. Prices showed a slight uptick at the start of February. 

Policy changes should also be closely monitored. In addition to the previously discussed self-regulatory production controls, there have been recent discussions on capacity reduction measures. Further policies remain to be seen.
 

Wafer

The wafer market has stayed calm this week, but price negotiations have started. As expected, n-type G12R wafer prices have dropped to RMB 1.3/piece. Some cell manufacturers are buying less and using their existing stock instead.

Trading prices for p-type M10 and G12 wafers land at RMB 1.1-1.15/piece and RMB 1.7/piece, respectively. As p-type wafers become customized products, demand in China has dropped sharply, with sales mainly driven by non-China orders.

In response to market changes, price quotes for 210P wafers have been discontinued since last week.

N-type wafers this week:

• M10 183N: Mainstream trading prices stay at RMB 1.18/piece. 

• G12R: Trading prices remain at RMB 1.3/piece. 

• G12N: Trading prices hold at RMB 1.55/piece.

Industry self-regulation continues this week, with updated quota allocations for each company. As the market becomes more regulated, wafer prices will depend on enforcement and will stay stable.
 

Cell

Prices for p-type M10 cells remain averaging RMB 0.33/W, ranging from RMB 0.32-0.34/W. As was the case last week, due to a supply shortage, prices may not decline in the short term.

N-type cell:

• M10: Averaging RMB 0.29/W. Higher price decline from last week’s RMB 0.3/W, making prices range from RMB 0.29-0.295/W.

• G12R: Averaging RMB 0.28/W, ranging from RMB 0.275-0.285/W.

• G12: Averaging RMB 0.295/W, ranging from RMB 0.29-0.30/W.

Looking ahead, policies are shaping the market. Factors like market-oriented electricity pricing for renewable energy and industry self-regulation agreements affect demand and cell supply. G12R cell demand remains weak, and prices may drop further as upstream costs fall.

With March orders and production plans still unclear, cell makers are cautious, leading to tougher price negotiations across other segments. However, cell prices are likely to stay stable.
 

Module

Market-oriented reform of electricity pricing for renewable energy is pushing solar power into the electricity market, with projects starting after June 2025 fully adopting market-oriented pricing. Projects commissioned before May 31 will still get guaranteed prices. This may drive a surge in demand and installations before the deadline. However, the policy needs time to take effect, and new orders have not seen a clear boost yet.

The spot market and ground-mounted projects remain stable, with new orders still being finalized. Module prices have increased, but deliveries are slow, so price hikes will take time.

This week’s module prices:

• TOPCon: RMB 0.60–0.70/W, with low-price range (RMB 0.60–0.65/W) shrinking.

• 182 PERC glass-glass: RMB 0.60–0.68/W.

• HJT: RMB 0.69–0.85/W.

• Utility-scale projects: prices tend toward the mid-to-low range of RMB 0.7-0.8/W.

• N-TBC: RMB 0.68–0.79/W.

Prices remain stable in non-China markets this week. In Europe, prices are showing signs of rising as previous low-priced orders are being completed. However, the increase will depend on market acceptance. So far, only minor adjustments have appeared in the spot market without affecting the average price. 

Prices this week:

• TOPCon: USD 0.090/W.

• HJT: USD 0.09-0.11/W.

• PERC: USD 0.065-0.08/W.

TOPCon module prices by region:

Prices come in at USD 0.085-0.09/W in the Asia Pacific and USD 0.085-0.09/W in Japan and South Korea. In India, prices for imported modules from China are USD 0.08-0.09/W. Indian modules made with Chinese cells are priced at USD 0.14-0.15/W, with minimal price gap between PERC and TOPCon ones. Modules are delivered at USD 0.09-0.10/W in Australia. With clearance sales ending, European spot prices are stabilizing. Manufacturers are considering raising prices to EUR 0.1/W, but market uncertainty remains. Futures prices are EUR 0.088-0.09/W. The Latin American market sees overall prices at USD 0.085-0.09/W. Prices in Brazil are reportedly fluctuating at USD 0.07-0.09/W. In the Middle East, prices mostly stay at USD 0.09-0.095/W.

US prices are impacted by policy changes, resulting in weaker project activities. Manufacturers are delivering TOPCon modules at USD 0.2-0.27/W. PERC and TOPCon modules see a price gap of USD 0.01-0.02/W. Price quotes for new orders keep falling and are likely to drop further in 1Q25. Local-made price quotes sit at USD 0.27–0.3/W, while non-local-made ones are at USD 0.18–0.20/W.